Tuesday Open Thread [7.28.15]

Only the top 10 GOP candidates in the last five national polls will get a podium on the debate state on August 6. First Read crunched the numbers:

Trump: 18%
Bush 14%
Walker 10.6%
Rubio 6.2%
Paul 6%
Cruz 6%
Huckabee 5.6%
Carson 5.2%
Christie 3%
Perry 2.2%

Not making the cut:

Kasich 2%
Santorum 1.6%
Jindal 1.4%
Fiorina 0.8%
Graham 0.2%

So I guess Governor Kasich will have to say something outrageous this week to improve his standing and knock Rick Perry out.

Jeff Greenfield:

The baseless notion that Obama is not really “one of us” is not confined to questions of birth. It is also linked to a broader notion that in countless ways, the president is not really “one of us.” For ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Obama’s worldview is explained as “Kenyan anti-colonial behavior.” For FOX’s Sean Hannity, Obama is “the Manchurian candidate,” whose (perhaps unconscious) attraction to America’s enemies was shaped by ties to onetime Weather Underground bomber Bill Ayres and his longtime pastor, Jeremiah Wright. For former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani, the conclusion is clear: “I know this is a horrible thing to say, but I do not believe that the president loves America,” he said in February. “He doesn’t love you. And he doesn’t love me. He wasn’t brought up the way you were brought up and I was brought up through love of this country.”

If these are the public views of some of the more prominent voices on the Right, it’s no surprise that a majority of Republicans believe that “deep down, Obama is a Muslim,” or that a significant chunk of Republicans think it’s likely that Obama is not a citizen.

But, to this chunk of the American electorate, there is another way in which Obama is demonstrating that he is not really “one of us”—it’s his support for comprehensive immigration reform, where Trump’s incendiary rhetoric has been a key fuel behind his rise to the top of the polls. Quite apart from the legitimate questions about immigration, the embrace of Trump’s portrait of an immigrant group that is peopled by drug traffickers and rapists fits perfectly with the idea that Obama is the champion of foreign ideas, foreign religions and foreign people. To understand how this dynamic works, we need to understand just how “different” Obama is from his predecessors, and how that difference resonates with a long, ignoble American tradition: the fear of “The Other.

NEW HAMPSHIRE–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—Monmouth: Trump 24, Bush 12, Kasich 7, Walker 7, Rubio 6, Carson 5, Paul 5, Christie 4, Cruz 3, Fiorina 3, Huckabee 2, Jindal 2, Pataki 2, Perry 1, Santorum 1, Gilmore 0, Graham 0.

I posted the GOP primary numbers from the CNN/ORC poll but I forgot to publish the Democratic primary and the horserace numbers and the presidential approval numbers. So here you go:

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—CNN/ORC: Clinton 56, Sanders 19, Biden 15, Webb 1, O’Malley 0, Chafee 0

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–CLINTON V. GOP–CNN/ORC:

Clinton 51, Bush 46
Clinton 57, Trump 38
Clinton 54, Walker 43

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–SANDERS V. GOP–CNN/ORC:

Sanders 48, Bush 47
Sanders 58, Trump 38
Sanders 48, Walker 42

The interesting thing is that Clinton and Sander’s numbers are the same against Trump. So there is a diehard group of Republican voters or right leaning independents that will vote for a Socialist before they vote for Trump. That’s gotta smart for Trump.

NATIONAL–PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL–CNN/ORC: 49% of American voters approve of the way President Obama is handling his job, 47% disapprove.

Politico reports that “[f]Four leading GOP presidential candidates – Jeb Bush, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and Scott Walker – ” were summoned…. SUMMONED… by the Koch Brothers “to a Southern California luxury hotel in coming days to make their cases directly to the Koch brothers and hundreds of other wealthy conservatives planning to spend close to $1 billion in the run-up to the 2016 election.”

If these men had any guts, if they truly were men (and if Carly Fiorina or Hillary Clinton were involved in this story, I would say if they truly were women) of any integrity, any self respect, any honor at all, they would tell the Koch Brother to stick it where the sun don’t shine.

Summoned? In stories like this, these candidates have to know that they look like puppets, right? Well, not look like, they are.

Bloomberg finds Donald Trump is worth $2.9 billion and not the $10 billion he claims.

“The Bloomberg index values the real estate based on income it currently produces. Trump’s retail spaces could fetch higher rents if vacated and leased to new tenants at prevailing rates. It doesn’t value Trump’s brand beyond accounting for cash held in accounts for his licensing deals and business partnerships. Trump’s own estimations include much higher values for his brand.”

“Imagine a NASCAR driver mentally preparing for a race knowing one of the drivers will be drunk. That’s what prepping for this debate is like.” — GOP strategist John Weaver, on Twitter.

“Setting ambitious goals for producing energy from the sun, wind and other renewable sources, Hillary Clinton seized on an issue Monday that increasingly resonates with Democratic voters and sets up a stark contrast with the Republican presidential field,” the New York Times reports.

“With many Republican candidates saying they do not believe that climate change is a threat or requires government intervention, Mrs. Clinton assailed their logic, saying, ‘The reality of climate change is unforgiving no matter what the deniers say.’ She set a goal to produce 33 percent of the nation’s electricity from renewable sources by 2027, up from 7 percent today — a higher goal than the 20 percent that President Obama has called for by 2030.”

Wonk Wire has more details on the Clinton Climate plan