Thursday Open Thread [8.6.15] — All Debate Edition

New York Times: “The most pressing question that Donald Trump could face [tonight] in the first debate of the 2016 presidential race may not be about Iran or immigration, but this: Can he deploy enough adjectives (‘huge!’), superlatives (‘the worst!’) and invectives (‘loser!’) for him to use up his time without being challenged successfully on the substance of policy?”

“Mr. Trump could come away a winner if he makes cogent points without sounding too hostile, presenting himself as more of a serious-minded, anti-establishment voice in a primary crowded with career Republican politicians. But there are risks for him if he turns the debate stage in Cleveland into another episode of the reality show his campaign has sometimes resembled.”

Then again, ABC News reports that he is just going to “wing it,” which is great news for us watching for mere entertainment value:

“Candidates usually spend hours and hours preparing for a major debate — reading up the issues, going through practice Q & A sessions or mock debates and practicing lines to use when the big moment comes. Not Donald Trump,” ABC News reports.

Said one senior adviser: “Trump doesn’t rehearse… I have no idea what to expect. I’m just as clueless as you about what he’ll do.”

“It’s not that his political team hasn’t tried. Trump’s aides have prepared him memos on the issues and the expected lines of questions and potential attacks from the other candidates, but there have been no formal debate prep sessions, no mock Q & A, no practice debates.”

Josh Green: “Until recently, Americans mentally categorized Trump as a celebrity entertainer and interpreted his madcap antics and controversial pronouncements accordingly. But on Thursday, voters will experience Trump in a much different context: as the standard-bearer of the Republican Party, who not only leads the presidential field by a wide margin but, as a new Bloomberg Politics poll shows, has a powerful appeal to every segment of the Republican electorate.”

Norm Ornstein: “What explains the Trump bump? The answer is the emerging, even dominant force in the GOP—an angry, anti-establishment, anti-leadership populism that was triggered by the financial crisis and the 2008 bailout, cynically exploited in 2010 and 2012 by the ‘Young Guns’ in the House and other GOP leaders in Congress to convert anger into turnout and elect Tea Party-oriented candidates. This force is now turning on those leaders, creating problems not just in the presidential race, but in a Congress whose leaders face the possibility of implosion ahead.”

“The angry populism has only grown with conservative rank and file incited to expect the repeal of Obamacare and an Obama capitulation on debt-ceiling showdowns and government shutdowns, ending repeatedly in disappointment. The sharp drop in Republican Party favorability shown in a recent Pew survey was driven by disenchantment among Republicans—an 18 percent decline in only six months.”

Donald Trump’s biggest debate challenge is himself:

“Trump exists so much in his own universe that engaging him, poking the bear, seems likely to cause more harm than help. But that doesn’t mean he can’t implode himself. As impressive as Trump’s numbers are, they are still inextricably tied to the Trump Brand, the bullying, swaggering, “you’re a total loser” television personality. And as anyone who has ever worked in television can tell you, your brand can evaporate in one wrong second. Donald Trump, in order to keep this up, needs to keep being Donald Trump, and that’s a more delicate balance than one might think.”

The Upshot: “The candidate who wins the invisible primary usually wins the nomination. Even when he doesn’t, the eventual nominee tends to be a candidate who was a close runner-up. Why? The support of party leaders is both a sign of a candidate’s long-term strength and a source of future strength.”

“For all that you may read about Donald Trump, Jeb Bush now leads the campaign, with the most endorsements and money, as well as top-three showings in the polls — which is reflected in the prediction markets, a kind of synthesis of the other data. But it is not a dominant lead, in part because of how few endorsements any candidate has yet received. After Mr. Bush is Scott Walker, who leads the Iowa polls.”

But there are multiple invisible primaries now, given Citizens United. Bush may be the favorite of normal Republican donors. Walker is the favorite of the Koch Brothers:

Gov. Scott Walker “won a surprising nod in an informal straw poll of major conservative donors gathered by the Koch brothers’ operation last weekend in Orange County, California.”

“In a closed-door session that included about 100 donors, Republican pollster Frank Luntz asked donors to clap to indicate their choice for the Republican Party’s nomination. While Luntz did not formally track or announce the results, sources say it was clear that Walker got the most applause, followed by former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who received roughly the same amount of applause.”

Rick Klein: “The Trump problem – or among the Trump problems – is that there are two competing schools of thought among those advising the candidates, each arguing for exactly different strategies. One says that it’s time to press and scrutinize him, and that the candidate or candidates who play the anti-Trump cards strongest will be remembered and rewarded for that. The other says that Trump is likely to collapse courtesy of his own mouth, and that other candidates should be focused on their own games without contributing to the Trump circus, or giving him any more publicity.”

“The fact that the two candidates who’ve been harshest toward Trump won’t even be at the main debate – Rick Perry and Lindsey Graham – could make for fewer fireworks surrounding the Donald. But it’s impossible to imagine headlines Friday morning that don’t focus on Trump. For his rivals, the question becomes whether they want to be part of them, or content with being sidebars.”

First Read: “As the political world remains transfixed on Donald Trump, here’s maybe your most important storyline heading into tomorrow’s first GOP debate: No one has more riding on a solid performance than Jeb Bush does.”

“After all, Bush has had a rough last week… Thursday night is going to be a big moment for Jeb, especially in this Summer of Donald Trump. Remember, Mitt Romney had plenty of challenges in his 2012 bid for the GOP nomination. But more often than not, he used solid debate performances to boost his position with Republican primary voters. Can Jeb do the same?”