Day: August 9, 2015

A new NBC News/Survey Monkey poll taken after the first GOP presidential debate finds Donald Trump still leading the field with 23%, followed by Ted Cruz at 13%, Ben Carson at 11%, Carly Fiorina at 8%, Marco Rubio at 8%, Jeb Bush at 7%, and Scott Walker at 7%. Chuck Todd explained on Meet the Press that it was a “scientific” online survey. I am not sure what that means, since online surveys are by their very nature not random, and thus the poll can't really be scientific, so take this poll for what it is worth. But for those of us who are poll starved and curious to see what affect the debate had on the polls, this is our first clue.

Matt Taibbi notes “there are plenty of Tea Party-type voters out there who hate the Republican Party establishment almost as much as they hate the Democrats. There are also plenty of right-wing voters who think George Will and Charles Krauthammer are smug media weasels only slightly less disgusting than the Rachel Maddows and Keith Olbermanns of the world. A know-it-all is a know-it-all.”

“Trump’s followers are a gang of pissed-off nativists who are tired of being laughed at, belittled, dismissed, and told who to vote for. So it seems incredible that the Republican establishment thinks it’s going to get rid of Trump by laughing at, belittling and dismissing him, and telling his voters who they should be picking.” “These hysterical critics are making one of the world’s most irredeemable bullies look persecuted and like a victim, a difficult feat. The desperation to get rid of him may just feed more and more into the right wing base’s crazy victim complex, and in turn get Trump even more support.”

And yet.... Washington Post: “Republican leaders who have watched Donald Trump’s summer surge with alarm now believe that his presidential candidacy has been contained and may begin to collapse because of his repeated attacks on a Fox News Channel star and his refusal to pledge his loyalty to the eventual GOP nominee.” Politico: “Fallout from a crude attack on Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly and the departure of a top political adviser roiled Donald Trump’s campaign Saturday, leading Republicans to question whether the laws of political gravity have finally caught up with the real estate mogul.” This is why I am not predicting anything. Last time we predicted Trump was over, when he attacked the honor of all POWs and John McCain, his numbers increased 10%, from 14% to 24%. Remember, nativists and racists are also sexists and misogynists.