Friday Open Thread [8.21.15]

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—CNN/ORC: Clinton 47, Sanders 29, Biden 14, O’Malley 2, Webb 1, Chafee 0
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–CNN/ORC:

Clinton 52, Bush 43
Clinton 51, Trump 45
Clinton 52, Walker 46
Clinton 53, Fiorina 43

NORTH CAROLINA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—PPP: Trump 24, Carson 14, Bush 13, Cruz 10, Rubio 9, Walker 6, Fiorina 6, Huckabee 6, Paul 3, Christie 2, Santorum 2, Kasich 1, Perry 1, Jindal 0, Graham 0
NORTH CAROLINA–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—PPP: Clinton 55, Sanders 19, Biden, Webb 5, O’Malley 2, Chafee 2
NORTH CAROLINA–PRESIDENT–PPP:

Clinton 42, Bush 42
Trump 45, Clinton 42
Walker 44, Clinton 41
Rubio 45, Clinton 41

FLORIDA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—QUINNIPIAC: Trump 21, Bush 17, Carson 11, Rubio 11, Cruz 7, Walker 4, Fiorina 7, Huckabee 4, Paul 4, Kasich 3, Jindal 1, Christie 1, Perry 0, Graham 0
OHIO–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—QUINNIPIAC: Kasich 27, Trump 21, Rubio 7, Cruz 7, Carson 6, Bush 5, Fiorina 5, Huckabee 3, Walker 2, Paul 2, Santorum 2, Christie 1, Perry 0, Graham 0
PENNSYVANIA–PRESIDENT–REPUBLICAN PRIMARY—QUINNIPIAC: Trump 24, Carson 13, Rubio 10, Fiorina 7, Bush 6, Walker 5, Paul 5, Cruz 5, Santorum 4, Kasich 3, Huckabee 2, Christie 2, Jindal 1, Perry 0, Graham 0
FLORIDA–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—QUINNIPIAC: Clinton 48, Sanders 15, Biden 11, O’Malley 1, Webb 1, Chafee 0
OHIO–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—QUINNIPIAC: Clinton 47, Sanders 17, Biden 14, O’Malley 0, Webb 1, Chafee 0
PENNSYLVANIA–PRESIDENT–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—QUINNIPIAC: Clinton 45, Sanders 19, Biden 17, O’Malley 1, Webb 1, Chafee 0
MARYLAND–SENATOR–DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY—GLOBAL STRATEGY GROUP: Rep. Donna Edwards (D) 42, Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D) 37

Robert Costa and Philip Rucker say the GOP has no idea, no plan, on how to take Trump down.

Though flummoxed by Trump’s staying power and aghast at the coarse tone he has brought to the race, party elites said they have no plan to take him down. Donors feel powerless. Republican officials have little leverage. Candidates are skittish. Super PAC operatives say attack ads against him could backfire. And everyone agrees that the Trump factor in this chaotic multi-candidate field is so unpredictable that any move carries dangerous risks.

The non-Trump candidates are falling into three categories: Those who are emulating and befriending him in an effort to win over his supporters; those who are assailing his background or calling him out for his views and rhetoric; and those who prefer to stay silent, as if hunkering down in the basement to ride out the tornado.

Greg Sargent says that Trump is now running to win. God help us.

“The sight of Donald Trump rolling out a new, and highly specific, immigration plan has been more than a little unsettling: It shows that Trump is now genuinely playing in the GOP primaries to win, and reveals in stark relief how exactly he intends to go about doing that.”

“Trump’s plan to combat illegal immigration — unveiled yesterday — may make it harder to avoid reckoning with the real source of Trump’s appeal to his supporters. If his lead among GOP primary voters continues, it will challenge the platitudes about how it is rooted in their desire to see ‘disruptions’ or in their general dissatisfaction with the political establishment.”

The Hill: “Trump is showing more confidence about his chances of winning the party’s nomination and the presidency in 2016.”

Matt Latimer on Jeb being the easiest Republican for Clinton to beat:

“Regardless of whether Clinton survives her primary battle with an ever growing list of potential foes, Republicans ought to think hard about the reasons why Bush might be the easiest of the serious GOP contenders for the Clintons to beat. And it’s not just because they’ve done it before.”

“Think the Clintons have political baggage? Well, so do the Bushes. And Jeb is being crushed under the weight of it. So far, Bush evokes as much allure among the Republican rank-and-file as a Dixie Chicks concert on Earth Day. There’s a reason almost no one has commented on Jeb Bush’s performance in the first GOP debate. He wasn’t terrible. He wasn’t great. He was just, well, there. Mediocrity is apparently the plan.”

“Even if GOP elites are right—that Donald Trump isn’t ready for the big stage—they better make sure their chosen understudy isn’t going to fare far worse.”

At the Plum Line at the Washington Post, Paul Waldman says that the Republicans may have just given away the election with all this birthright citizenship fascist nonsense. I agree.

[T]his week has seen the most significant development yet in the immigration debate’s role in the 2016 election. I’d go even farther — it’s possible that the entire presidential election just got decided….

It’s possible to argue that you’re “pro-immigrant” while simultaneously saying we should build more walls and double the size of the Border Patrol. Indeed, many Republicans do, and while their argument may not be particularly persuasive, it’s not completely crazy. But you can’t say you’re pro-immigrant and advocate ending birthright citizenship. You just can’t.

Thus, in a scenario where it would be very difficult mathematically for a Republican to win the presidency without a pretty big improvement over Mitt Romney’s performance among Latinos, the GOP is doubling down on the self deportation remarks that doomed Romney in the first place. According to Latino Decisions analysis that Waldman cites, Republicans will need 42% of the Latino vote to win even if they maintain their 2014 support levels among white voters and black turnout and Democratic support levels among black voters return to pre-Obama levels and Latino turnout is poor. You ain’t getting 42% of the Latino vote with this rhetoric. You ain’t getting 22%.