Tuesday Open Thread [8.25.15] — All Biden Edition
As Vice President Biden weighs a possible run for president, personal issues stand as the biggest unresolved obstacle, with Biden trying to gauge whether his family is emotionally prepared for a grueling campaign while still grieving the recent death of his son Beau,” the Washington Post reports.
You would think that would be the first time you tackle. Is the family ready and willing to do this? Because if they are not or are unsure, then why waste time with advisers and fundraisers?
“Biden is now leaning more toward running than he was earlier in the summer, though he is still weeks from a decision. He thinks his White House experience over the past 6 1/2 years, coupled with his grounding in middle-class issues during a long career in the Senate, makes him well equipped to serve as President Obama’s successor.”
Oh joy, we get still more weeks of this. No candidate has ever filed this late and won a nomination in the modern primary era. For what it’s worth, President Obama has given his “blessing” for Biden to make a run, CNN reports.
“But that’s if Biden chooses to run — the decision is his. While he doesn’t need the President’s permission, of course, a potential presidential candidacy was among the topics of their lunch Monday at the White House. The President made clear he would not stand in his way or counsel him against a run, the senior Democrat said.”
Michael Tomasky at The Daily Beast gives his take on Vice President Biden possibly entering the race:
Game-changer is a hoary expression in this town, so forgive me, but that really would be one. I’d guess Biden would go instantly from his current 13 percent to at least twice that. His ego would have to adjust to having a running mate who is more beloved than he is and who draws crowds about four or five times the size of his. But even something short of an official alliance, a nudge-wink implication that Warren is somehow on team Biden, makes him a much more serious player. […] But what if he just decides the hell with it, I’m running? A Biden v. Clinton primary battle could be—and if Biden manages to win a couple of primaries, most certainly would be—far more acrimonious than the Clinton-Barack Obama fight of 2008
Tomasky’s column reads as one giant wish in some respects. No matter what happens, nothing can top the acrimony of 2008. But if Biden were to announce his candidacy and immediately announce that Elizabeth Warren is his running mate, then yes that would be a game changer. That would immediately destroy Bernie Sander’s campaign. The Bern would be over. And it might immediately destroy Clinton’s. It would be a brilliant move by Biden to co-opt Bernie’s poll numbers and support and adding it to his establishment level of support. If that were to happen, I might just be on board, and Biden-Warren would probably lead Hillary in the polls.
And once that happens, Biden doesn’t have to attack Hillary at all. And any Hillary attack on Biden would backfire spectacularly.
Tomasky says his reason that a Biden-Clinton primary would be nasty is because women (and Hillary) would be angry because they were told to wait in 2008 and now another old white guy is telling them again that there would be no woman president. I think a Biden-Warren ticket lessens that aspect. And without saying it, because you can never say it expressly, it would be implied that Biden would be a one term President and Warren, the real first woman President would run and win in 2020.
Yeah, Biden-Warren would be a game changer. Biden alone not so much.
Rick Klein: “Agita does not necessarily mean an opening. That’s an important distinction to Vice President Joe Biden, as he considers a run that would inject high drama and countless new storylines into what was supposed to be a march dictated by inevitability for Hillary Clinton. We know Biden would bring name recognition, deep experience, and a zeal for running that couldn’t be matched. We also know that he’s 0-2 in presidential races already, and that his own worst enemy tends to speak for himself – literally. There may be no moment that’s more favorable to a potential Biden candidacy than this one, with Clinton’s email controversy interrupting the summer only by the utterings of Donald Trump.”
“That’s different, though, than a grassroots yearning for Biden. When it comes down to it, he’s neither generationally nor ideologically all that distinct from Clinton. That means the differences would have to come in tone (check) and, pretty quickly, where he seeks out divisions. Biden is not a natural intra-party attacker, and that could very well be what it takes to defeat the frontrunner.”
First Read: “Yet despite how a Biden bid could initially hurt Hillary Clinton (make no mistake, it would be a clear rebuke to her), there are two reasons why Biden running could actually help her. First, it would force Clinton and her campaign to step up their game… In other words, give her a real Democratic race — a la what she experienced in the spring of 2008 when Clinton trailed Barack Obama — and it’ll force her to be a stronger candidate. Two, Biden jumping in would swap the scandal-focused coverage of Clinton and replace it with horserace-focused coverage. It has become increasingly apparent that Hillary Clinton might not be able to beat a unified political press corps on constant scandal patrol. But she could beat Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.”
On Friday Gallup released polling showing that Hillary Clinton’s net favorability ratings remain high among Democrats over the last several months. Net favorability means her favorability rating minus her unfavorability rating.
As the chart shows, Clinton’s favorability has actually increased four points since the start of July. rating steady at 60% for July and August, with Bernie Sanders moving from 26% in July to 29% percent in August.
What about Joe Biden?
His net favorability rating is 58%, similar to Clinton’s (74-16 = 58). Where Biden differs from Hillary Clinton is his favorability among all Americans:
His rating is both positive and much higher than Clinton’s at present. But this was true (and even higher) for Clinton when she was a non candidate. Once you become a candidate, partisanship kicks in, all Republicans and right leaning independents start to hate you, and down go the numbers. There is also a sympathy factor for Biden right now. Expect that to go away the minute he declares.
Can we make content requests? Like about how Hillary won’t agree to making it illegal for people coming from the private sector into the government sector get a bonus from the company they left? Bernie Sander’s has agreed to it of course.
Oh and I found this nugget about Dupont.
I know DL doesn’t really post controversial stuff about Delaware Companies, but I figured some readers might like to see something besides 80 year old post offices and sunrises.
https://firstlook.org/theintercept/2015/08/20/teflon-toxin-dupont-slipped-past-epa/
I often wonder what future generations will think about how we allowed corporate piggies to dump toxins into our air, water and food and allowed the war pigs to rule
Attention Readers: These Open Threads are where you can specifically discuss any topic you want. So if we are not discussing a policy that has been put forward by Bernie Sanders, you are free to post it here. You don’t have to phrase it as a “Content Request.” Just post it. And then maybe, I will or Jason or another contributor will write about it.
It’s a big political world, and just because we have not written about something doesn’t mean we have explicitly decided not to write about something. You know that is not how it works, Donviti.
But thanks for the info, both on Sanders and on DuPont.
6% of people polled never hear of Joe Biden? Absolutely astonishing
I can’t support Clinton, as she has accepted 250k from the Prison for Profit Lobby in 2015. I’m not sure how we can expect to get the turnout we need, and grow the base of the Democratic party, if our nominee is part of the problem in promoting modern day slavery.
http://act.presente.org/sign/hillaryprisons/?t=1&akid=1335.117213.Iz3Wo7
It’s a big political world we don’t have time!!!
Skyjack photo in
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Jerry – You make a very good point. Of course it may just be a big thank you for the Clinton Crime bill. And let’s not forget who has been even a bigger “tough-on-crime” and war-on-drugs crusader… JR Biden. He’s been absolutely terrible on those issues.
I see no reason to believe that a Biden presidency would be materially different than a Clinton presidency. I suppose trying to align yourself with Ms EA Warren is a clever bit of politics. However, I fail to see how a VP candidate changes anything.
Oh and don’t expect JB to go cracking skulls and splitting up Delaware Banks
Dorian, while Biden’s ‘tough on crime’ policies in the 80s and 90s are legitimate areas of concern, he’s spent the past 2 terms alongside President Obama in a reform-minded administration. While there’s still far more work to be done, that shows me he’s evolving. Clinton accepting that money in 2015 shows me she is not.
People get all worked up over cults of personality – the characters these people play on the TV. It’s utterly meaningless. A hypothetical Biden presidency and a hypothetical HRC presidency are indistinguishable. But, here we are, months ahead of even the first fucking caucus, spending hour after hour after hour talking about it like it makes that much difference.
Here we go with the evolving bit… Let’s see from whom Biden takes cash – if he indeed decides to run. Then we can discuss it.
Evolving? Wake me up when he makes it to the australopithicene level.
Even if Biden doesn’t run, we’ve still got a big problem here with Clinton’s affiliation with that P4P cancer. Affected communities already know, and I’m sure it will be further pounded into their head if she is the nominee. While they won’t turn around and vote GOP, they’ll simply stay at home on election day.
It’s cute people at our level thinking they have a choice in who get’s nominated.
Rinse repeat this nonsense from any previous election. They need a story. Sooooooo let’s fill in the one about JB maybe running. ohhhhhh He’s meeting with people all right, and they are telling him to sit the eff down and let Hillary take this one. He’s not running.
But it will be boring if the next 16 months don’t come up with stories. They need balance…it’s time for some Democrat nonsense. The next GOP debate isn’t for a while. And everyone on that side needs to pretend it’s someone other than Bush
I completely agree. We get our pants in a twist because so-and-so GOP candidate said X. But we know full well that’s X is just part of the campaign character and that of the X and Y and Z things that are said approximately none of them would come to fruition if that candidate is elected.
Plus we have this idea that a Jeb Bush presidency would be any different than say a Scott Walker presidency or a Marco Rubio presidency or a Chris Christie presidency. Frankly, I feel pretty confident that a DJ Trump presidency would be about the same as all of those as well. Trump just says wilder things on television. Actually, historically, Trump is one of the most liberal GOP candidates…
This entire election process is pretty much a complete waste of time. I watch a bit of reality TV just like the next person, but I don’t pretend it matters one way or the other and I certain don’t discuss it because it’s mindless and ultimately very boring.
I highly doubt that Warren would run as a team w/Biden. Don’t think she likes the running for office part of politics at all. She’s even given signals that she might not run for reelection to her Senate seat.
Would I be more likely to vote for Biden if Warren were his pre-announced VP choice? Hell, yes. Do I think it’s gonna happen? Hell, no.
So if 6% of of our 310 million population have never heard of Biden, that’s 18 million people.
Hey, Mouse, if 18 million people still haven’t heard about Biden, there’s a very strong chance that they’re not voting. In the context of an election, either primary or general, they ain’t worth worrying about.
Makes sense
FWIW – Bettors are bullish on Biden entering the race. 75% on Predictit
https://www.predictit.org/Home/SingleOption?marketId=1273#data1
Not to compare myself to Joe, or the office to his, but when I ran for Insurance Commissioner and spoke with registered Democrats, including some committee members, I heard the following more than once:
1. Insurance Commissioner of (Rehoboth Beach; Sussex County)?
2. Does the IC sell insurance?
3. How many people are on the Commission?
4. You say Matt Denn brought you into the Dept. Who is Matt Denn?
5. Doesn’t the Governor appoint the IC?
6. Isn’t Matt Denn the Commissioner? No? What happened to him?
7. Does Senator Biden support you? He isn’t senator anymore? (this is 2012)
After I lost the Primary:
Did you win? ( for months)
After KWS was sworn in for a second term
Are you the Commissioner now?
Didn’t you get elected ( as recently as last year)
I was introduced at a conference as Delaware’s Insurance Commissioner
These are VOTERS
What’s insurance?
INsurance
Voters pay attention to the last 2 weeks of a campaign
I’m so excited, I just created a hyper link in a word document and it even works lol
“It’s cute people at our level thinking they have a choice in who get’s nominated. ”
I very much agree with that but I wonder if Joe Biden getting in doesn’t represent a Plan B for the powers that be who decide such things after recognizing a weakness in the Clinton campaign that we the (little) people aren’t aware of yet.
Let’s face it, the e-mail server thing seems more like a bad Maxwell Smart “Would you believe…” routine than a full and open disclosure.
Is it true that Ashley’s new hubby is going to make her look like Huma? He already looks like “little Anthony” weiner. Next thing you’ll notice is that a plastic surgeon already has 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.. In Wilmington.
I love Delaware.. Trust
To Mitch Cranes point, NOW we know how Obama got elected twice!
“Let’s face it, the e-mail server thing seems more like a bad Maxwell Smart “Would you believe…” routine than a full and open disclosure.”
If the email server thing takes down Clinton it will because there is an entire media industry devoted to scandal mongering around the Clintons. If this fabricated bullshit failed to get traction, they’d have come up with something else.
The only odd thing about any of it is that team Clinton doesn’t seem to have prepped very well for the inevitable.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/cafe/joe-biden-campaign-2016
Clinton is a joke. Run Joe Run, we need a real leader in the White House!
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/8043150