As Vice President Biden weighs a possible run for president, personal issues stand as the biggest unresolved obstacle, with Biden trying to gauge whether his family is emotionally prepared for a grueling campaign while still grieving the recent death of his son Beau,” the Washington Post reports.
You would think that would be the first time you tackle. Is the family ready and willing to do this? Because if they are not or are unsure, then why waste time with advisers and fundraisers?
“Biden is now leaning more toward running than he was earlier in the summer, though he is still weeks from a decision. He thinks his White House experience over the past 6 1/2 years, coupled with his grounding in middle-class issues during a long career in the Senate, makes him well equipped to serve as President Obama’s successor.”
Oh joy, we get still more weeks of this. No candidate has ever filed this late and won a nomination in the modern primary era. For what it’s worth, President Obama has given his “blessing” for Biden to make a run, CNN reports.
“But that’s if Biden chooses to run — the decision is his. While he doesn’t need the President’s permission, of course, a potential presidential candidacy was among the topics of their lunch Monday at the White House. The President made clear he would not stand in his way or counsel him against a run, the senior Democrat said.”
Michael Tomasky at The Daily Beast gives his take on Vice President Biden possibly entering the race:
Game-changer is a hoary expression in this town, so forgive me, but that really would be one. I’d guess Biden would go instantly from his current 13 percent to at least twice that. His ego would have to adjust to having a running mate who is more beloved than he is and who draws crowds about four or five times the size of his. But even something short of an official alliance, a nudge-wink implication that Warren is somehow on team Biden, makes him a much more serious player. […] But what if he just decides the hell with it, I’m running? A Biden v. Clinton primary battle could be—and if Biden manages to win a couple of primaries, most certainly would be—far more acrimonious than the Clinton-Barack Obama fight of 2008
Tomasky’s column reads as one giant wish in some respects. No matter what happens, nothing can top the acrimony of 2008. But if Biden were to announce his candidacy and immediately announce that Elizabeth Warren is his running mate, then yes that would be a game changer. That would immediately destroy Bernie Sander’s campaign. The Bern would be over. And it might immediately destroy Clinton’s. It would be a brilliant move by Biden to co-opt Bernie’s poll numbers and support and adding it to his establishment level of support. If that were to happen, I might just be on board, and Biden-Warren would probably lead Hillary in the polls.
And once that happens, Biden doesn’t have to attack Hillary at all. And any Hillary attack on Biden would backfire spectacularly.
Tomasky says his reason that a Biden-Clinton primary would be nasty is because women (and Hillary) would be angry because they were told to wait in 2008 and now another old white guy is telling them again that there would be no woman president. I think a Biden-Warren ticket lessens that aspect. And without saying it, because you can never say it expressly, it would be implied that Biden would be a one term President and Warren, the real first woman President would run and win in 2020.
Yeah, Biden-Warren would be a game changer. Biden alone not so much.
Rick Klein: “Agita does not necessarily mean an opening. That’s an important distinction to Vice President Joe Biden, as he considers a run that would inject high drama and countless new storylines into what was supposed to be a march dictated by inevitability for Hillary Clinton. We know Biden would bring name recognition, deep experience, and a zeal for running that couldn’t be matched. We also know that he’s 0-2 in presidential races already, and that his own worst enemy tends to speak for himself – literally. There may be no moment that’s more favorable to a potential Biden candidacy than this one, with Clinton’s email controversy interrupting the summer only by the utterings of Donald Trump.”
“That’s different, though, than a grassroots yearning for Biden. When it comes down to it, he’s neither generationally nor ideologically all that distinct from Clinton. That means the differences would have to come in tone (check) and, pretty quickly, where he seeks out divisions. Biden is not a natural intra-party attacker, and that could very well be what it takes to defeat the frontrunner.”
First Read: “Yet despite how a Biden bid could initially hurt Hillary Clinton (make no mistake, it would be a clear rebuke to her), there are two reasons why Biden running could actually help her. First, it would force Clinton and her campaign to step up their game… In other words, give her a real Democratic race — a la what she experienced in the spring of 2008 when Clinton trailed Barack Obama — and it’ll force her to be a stronger candidate. Two, Biden jumping in would swap the scandal-focused coverage of Clinton and replace it with horserace-focused coverage. It has become increasingly apparent that Hillary Clinton might not be able to beat a unified political press corps on constant scandal patrol. But she could beat Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders.”
On Friday Gallup released polling showing that Hillary Clinton’s net favorability ratings remain high among Democrats over the last several months. Net favorability means her favorability rating minus her unfavorability rating.
As the chart shows, Clinton’s favorability has actually increased four points since the start of July. rating steady at 60% for July and August, with Bernie Sanders moving from 26% in July to 29% percent in August.
What about Joe Biden?
His net favorability rating is 58%, similar to Clinton’s (74-16 = 58). Where Biden differs from Hillary Clinton is his favorability among all Americans:
His rating is both positive and much higher than Clinton’s at present. But this was true (and even higher) for Clinton when she was a non candidate. Once you become a candidate, partisanship kicks in, all Republicans and right leaning independents start to hate you, and down go the numbers. There is also a sympathy factor for Biden right now. Expect that to go away the minute he declares.