Tuesday Open Thread [10.20.15]

NATIONAL—Monmouth: Clinton 48, Sanders 21, Biden 17, Webb 1, O’Malley 0, Chafee 0
NATIONAL—NBC/WSJ: Clinton 49, Sanders 29, Biden 15, Webb 2, O’Malley 1, Chafee 0
NATIONAL—ABC/Wash Post: Clinton 54, Sanders 23, Biden 16, Webb 1, O’Malley 1, Chafee 0
NATIONAL—Morning Consult: Clinton 56, Sanders 24, Webb 1, O’Malley 1, Chafee 1
NATIONAL—Reuters/Ipsos: Clinton 51, Sanders 27, Biden 13
NEW HAMPSHIRE—Boston Herald/FPU: Sanders 38, Clinton 30, Biden 19, Webb 1, O’Malley 1, Chafee 1

NATIONAL—CNN/ORC: Trump 27, Carson 22, Rubio 8, Bush 8, Huckabee 5, Paul 5, Cruz 4, Fiorina 4, Christie 4, Kasich 3,Santorum 2, Jindal 0, Graham 1, Pataki 0
NATIONAL—NBC/WSJ: Trump 25, Carson 22, Rubio 13, Cruz 9, Bush 8, Fiorina 7, Huckabee 3, Paul 2, Kasich 3, Christie 1, Santorum 0, Jindal 0, Graham 0, Pataki 0
NATIONAL—Morning Consult: Trump 40, Carson 14, Bush 6, Cruz 5, Rubio 5, Christie 4, Fiorina 3, Huckabee 3, Kasich 2, Paul 2, Santorum 1, Jindal 1, Graham 1, Pataki 1

By 59% to 29%, Americans say Republicans’ disagreement in selecting a House speaker is a sign of dysfunction rather than reflecting healthy debate within the party, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll. Finally, maybe, the American people and the media are starting to notice who is at fault for all, yes all, of the gridlock, dysfunction and obstruction in DC.

The super PAC supporting Hillary Clinton “will advertise on television for the first time in the 2016 presidential campaign, running an ad for two days in the first four early nominating states before her congressional testimony Thursday on the 2012 attacks in Benghazi, Libya,” the New York Times reports.

“The ad has not been released. But the ad buy, expected to cost six figures, will run on cable networks in New Hampshire, Iowa, Nevada and South Carolina.”

I do love how Hillary Clinton and her campaign is on offense on this.

Wall Street Journal says Cruz is just waiting for Trump and Carson to fall: “The fate of the Cruz candidacy—and in some ways the shape of the Republican race from here on out—turns on whether Messrs. Trump and Carson will fade when voters get closer to actually having to cast ballots. If that happens, their voters might simply evaporate, proving that they weren’t really GOP primary voters after all, or they might move to a more conventional choice, or they might move to a more experienced bad boy. That might well be Mr. Cruz.”

“Unlike some other candidates, Mr. Cruz mostly has avoided criticizing Messrs. Trump and Carson, presumably to leave open the possibility their backers may move to him eventually.”

Former Senator Jim Webb, inexplicably running for the Democratic nomination, now says he may run as an Independent. Fine, go right ahead. Another conservative running for President splits their vote.

Fox News is reporting that he is going to drop out of the Democratic Primary this afternoon.

Politico on Biden’s very very narrow path: “Joe Biden’s 2016 path gets trickier by the day, but people who’ve been through presidential campaigns can still see it — provided they squint hard enough and nearly everything goes his way. If he decides to run, he’ll have to count on a unique campaign landing exactly right in what’s already proved a weird cycle.”

Trump has made a mistake in accurately blaming Bush for 9/11. Byron York: “This weekend was an inflection point in the Republican presidential race — a moment in which some significant part of the GOP establishment came out of denial and realized Donald Trump might well become their party’s nominee. That doesn’t mean Republicans have made their peace with a Trump victory. On the contrary — some are preparing to do whatever it takes to bring him down. Which could lead to an extraordinary scenario in which GOP stalwarts go to war to destroy their own party’s likely nominee.”

To take Trump down, you have to destroy the Republican base. The racist arrogant know nothing base of the GOP will have to be surgically removed from the party. That will lead to a collapse in the party’s electoral fortunes, but it is necessary. You cut cancer out. You don’t try to change cancer. You kill it.

Mike Murphy, who runs the Right to Rise super PAC supporting Jeb Bush, told Bloomberg that Donald Trump is a “zombie frontrunner.”

Said Murphy: “He’s dead politically, he’ll never be president of the United States, ever. By definition I don’t think you can be a frontrunner if you’re totally un-electable.”

He added: “So there’s no meaningful outcome to it. But the question is what kind of catalyst is it? It’s a huge amount of noise and so we’re trying to find the signal in all this. You’ve seen Trump start to drop now. I think it’ll be a very slow drop, but I think he’ll continue to drop and the question is: is he ready to lose primaries, will he stay in? And nobody knows the answer to that.”

Rick Klein says Biden’s only path is through Clinton: “Say this about Joe Biden: He’s not staying out of the race this long for political reasons – or, at least, not for very good ones. The new ABC News/Washington Post shows Hillary Clinton in command of the Democratic field… Clinton still has her political and policy vulnerabilities, with concerns that can and will register inside Democratic primaries. Yet 38 percent of all Americans – not just Democrats – say they expect her to the be the next president, in the new poll; Donald Trump, at 20, is the only other candidate in double digits on that question.”

“The only true path for Biden is if voters judge Clinton to be unelectable. As of now, though, voters assume she’s going to win. Without Biden making the case otherwise, Clinton is headed toward solidifying her grip on the Democratic field.”