Month: October 2015

Republicans will kick themselves for dragging Hillary Clinton before the House Benghazi committee Thursday. It was a defining moment for Clinton's presidential aspirations. She handled the GOP’s questions with aplomb and without the patina of partisanship that has characterized the committee since its conception. That would have been bad enough for the Republicans’ hopes of seizing the White House in 2017. But she did much more than that. She answered questions that Republicans have been hanging out there in hopes of sowing doubts among voters. Does she believe in American exceptionalism? Yes. Can she be non-partisan, serious, and policy-minded? Yes. Is her mental acuity superior to pretty much anyone you know? Yes. Is she human? Yes. Does she have the energy to be president? Yes.

Clearly, Republican voters are delusional. It’s hard to imagine any scenario where Trump doesn’t lose spectacularly against Clinton. Consider how much Romney’s chances were hurt by his indelicate “47 percent” comment. And that was mild compared toTrump’s relentless hateful bleating about Mexicans, his unsubtle racism regarding President Obama, and his ugly attitudes about women that will likely not be contained for the many months of running against a woman. Democrats win by getting out the vote, and almost nothing will encourage women and people of color to stampede to the polls more than pulling the lever against Donald Trump. But clearly, Republican primary voters don’t see this. Which calls into question the hope that they will wake up and start supporting someone more electable before it’s too late for their party. [...] It’s entirely possible that voters are still in the pissing-off-the-liberals phase and haven’t even started to consider boring issues like nominating someone who can run a credible general election campaign.

Markell shifted his support to Clinton after Biden's exit, citing her "advocacy for the middle class." "At this point, I think Secretary Clinton has certainly established herself as someone who will be a strong candidate and who will do the job well," Markell said. "I will support her campaign. I think it's important that we continue to build on the foundation that's been laid. I think she's the strongest candidate. I also think she'll be in the best position to be the strongest president."

Politico reports that finally, advisers who wanted him to run said he needed to give an answer before Thursday, when Hillary Clinton will testify before the House Select Committee on Benghazi. They felt that if Biden waited, it would look like he was waiting to evaluate Clinton's performance, and hurt both of them. [...] Biden greatly admires Clyburn, and his pseudo campaign got a boost when the congressman from South Carolina (a crucial early primary state for Biden) said a month ago that he was open to seeing Biden in the race. But on Monday, the congressman suddenly said "I would not advise him to get in" during a Huffington Post interview. The two men's staffers began trying to figure out what had changed, and Biden was reportedly deeply discouraged by Clyburn's change of heart. [...] Even on Wednesday morning, President Obama didn't know which way Biden was leaning. With advisers pushing Biden to make an announcement, he said on Tuesday night that he needed to sleep on it. The next morning he went to the Oval Office and told President Obama he'd decided not to run. According to the AP, they talked for about 30 minutes, and Obama told Biden he wanted to be by his side during his address in the Rose Garden. The event was thrown together so hastily that Biden staffers had to dash over to the White House to watch the speech, and several people who had been strategizing with Biden for months learned that he'd made a decision from news reports.

I too thought she "won" the debate. [...] She didn't out-debate Sanders. He was great. And she was great. In a neutral world, I'd say they both acquitted themselves well, and the polling above bears that out—Clinton improved and Sanders either improved or stayed even. Neither candidate flopped. But Sanders' supporters spent the last six months telling everyone that the DNC was protecting Clinton with its ridiculous debate schedule, which was true. But many of his supporters went further—that Clinton was afraid to debate, that Sanders would crush her head-to-head. They also spent months painting a caricature of Clinton that simply wasn't based on reality—that she was dull, that she was a neoliberal, etc, etc. So you'd be excused if you tuned in to the debate expecting her to sound like Mitt Romney (and about as engaging as him, as well). You'd be excused if you ended up surprised that Clinton could take command of the stage, confident rather than afraid. So Clinton didn't win because she was better than Sanders, she won because she far exceeded the expectations that Sanders' supporters themselves created. In politics, you don't make news when you meet expectations (Bernie was as awesome as everyone expected him to be), you make news when you either blow expectations away, or you blow up. And she certainly didn't blow up. So a lesson to underdogs: you're supposed to lower expectation for YOUR guy, not the front-runner. And for crissakes, don't underestimate Clinton! She's actually a damn impressive political figure, and talking her down got you nothing in the end. One final note, take a look at the Democratic poll trendlines above once more, and notice Sanders' flatline. That's what maxing out the white, educated, liberal Democratic electorate looks like. He's gotta bust out of that if he's going to be competitive past the two early states.