Tuesday Open Thread [11.3.15]

NATIONAL—NBC/WSJ: Clinton 62, Sanders 31, O’Malley 3
IOWA—PPP: Clinton 57, Sanders 25, O’Malley 7
NEW HAMPSHIRE—Monmouth: Clinton 48, Sanders 45, O’Malley 3.

Key findings: “Sanders retains his sizable advantage among registered independents and new voters, men, and younger voters. However, Clinton has made significant gains in the past two months with registered Democrats, women, and older voters.”

So, yeah, those Iowa and National polls from last week that showed a HUGE Benghazi Bounce for Clinton are confirmed. All the fears and doubts about Hillary were erased by her debate and hearing performance. Biden made the right decision.

NATIONAL—NBC/WSJ: Carson 29, Trump 23, Rubio 11, Cruz 10, Bush 8, Fiorina 3, Huckabee 3, Kasich 3, Christie 3, Paul 2
IOWA—PPP: Trump 22, Carson 21, Cruz 14, Rubio 10, Jindal 6, Huckabee 6, Bush 5, Fiorina 5, Christie 3, Paul 2, Kasich 2, Santorum 2
IOWA—Fulmer & Associates: Carson 28, Trump 20, Cruz 15, Rubio 10, Bush 9, Fiorina 4, Christie 2, Huckabee 2, Kasich 2, Paul 2, Santorum 1, Jindal 1
NEW HAMPSHIRE—Monmouth: Trump 26, Carson 16, Rubio 13, Kasich 11, Cruz 9, Bush 7, Fiorina 5, Christie 5, Paul 3, Huckabee 1
FLORIDA—Viewpoint Florida: Trump 27, Rubio 16, Carson 15, Cruz 12, Bush 12

“Without Bush in the race, Trump has a problem: He gets no added benefit, but Rubio’s support jumps up so that he almost ties the frontrunner, 24-27 percent. The rest of the GOP field is essentially unchanged.”

LOUISIANA—WVLA/JMC Analytics: John Bel Edwards (D) 52, Sen. David Vitter (R) 32.

The money quote from the President:

“Every one of these candidates says, ‘Obama’s weak, Putin’s kicking sand in his face. When I talk to Putin, he’s going to straighten out,'” Obama said during a democratic fundraiser in New York City.

“And then it turns out, they can’t handle a bunch of CNBC moderators,” he said. “If you can’t handle those guys, I don’t think the Chinese and the Russians are going to be too worried about you.”

I love no-fucks-to-give Obama.

Rick Klein: “It took another fractious debate to unite the GOP candidates: They agree that they don’t like these fractious debates, even if the viewing public seems to. But, as Sunday night’s summit made clear, they agree on almost nothing of what they want out of the debates, aside from longer opening statements and some say over graphics that come on screen. Ben Carson wants fewer debates and more candidates together; Bobby Jindal and Lindsey Graham want more debates and to be alongside the likes of Carson and Donald Trump; Trump wants as few candidates as possible, and definitely wants everything to end inside of two hours. (Campaigns including Marco Rubio and John Kasich’s don’t seem to want major changes at all, and Carly Fiorina was so unworried her campaign didn’t send a representative to the meeting.)”

“It’s likely that the most substantive changes that will grow out of this mini-revolt will have the candidates taking a leading role in negotiating format with individual television outlets, instead of the RNC. That cuts out a middleman who was never interested in getting in the middle of those fights anyway. The campaigns seem to lack either the time, inclination, or unity (these are individuals who want the same job, remember) to make wholesale changes to a locked-in debate schedule. The RNC can’t like the rumblings, but it may wind up cheering the results.”

The Washington Post has a draft letter listing the campaigns’ demands for the next debates.

First Read: “While many of those demands are reasonable, there are two explanations for this ‘debate over the debates’ is happening compared with past presidential cycles. One, we’ve never seen this many candidates in one party’s field before — 14 total, 10 on the main stage, four in the undercard. And two, it’s another example of how weaker the political parties have become. In the past, the campaigns would trust the parties to control the debating parameters with the TV networks. Well, not this time.”

Meanwhile, the Democrats are going to capitalize for the GOP’s cancelling of the February NBC GOP event. “The Spanish-language network Telemundo is in talks with the Democratic National Committee about possibly scheduling a new candidate forum with the Dem presidential candidates, after the Republican National Committee canceled its debate on NBC News and the NBC-owned Telemundo to protest CNBC’s handling of last week’s gathering,” Greg Sargent reports.

“If this comes to fruition, Democrats would effectively be moving into the breach created by the RNC’s decision. It would mean Democrats end up holding two debate-style events on Spanish-language networks, since they are already set to hold a Univision debate in March.”

And they GOP will have none. Nice message.

“He said, ‘Boehner, man, I’m gonna miss you.’ Yes you are, Mr. President. Yes you are.” — Former Speaker John Boehner, in an interview with Fox News, recounting a conversation with President Obama.

Donald Trump and his advisers “have decided to work directly with television executives and take a lead role in negotiating the format and content of primary debates, which have become highly watched and crucial events in the 2016 race,” the Washington Post reports.

“Trump plans to reject a joint letter to television network hosts regarding upcoming primary debates drafted Sunday at a private gathering of operatives from at least 11 presidential campaigns… The move by Trump, coming just hours after more than a dozen Republican strategists huddled in the Washington suburbs to craft a list of possible demands, effectively throttles an effort by the campaigns and the letter’s drafter, longtime GOP attorney Ben Ginsberg, to find consensus and work collectively to negotiate terms.”

The chaos smells intoxicating.

Bloomberg: “Sunday church services and the Sabbath are prime time for Carson’s operation, as the retired neurosurgeon tries to build a campaign infrastructure worthy of his front-runner status in the lead-off presidential nominating state.”

“Often assisting with the church-recruitment effort is Carson’s logo-wrapped campaign bus, which travels nationwide with its own schedule and Twitter handle, @healerhauler. Besides chatting with church-goers about Carson, volunteers and campaign workers sometimes hand out bumper stickers or beverages in church parking lots.”

Yeah, Carson will win Iowa. The Republicans there are mostly evangelicals.

“With just 90 days left before the Iowa caucuses, the race for the Republican presidential nomination is wide open — and the party appears to be losing control of the process,” The Hill reports.

“The complaints about the RNC are another manifestation of the restless mood that has catapulted businessman Donald Trump and retired surgeon Ben Carson to the top of the polls, despite the fact that neither man has ever held elected office.”

“Many in the party believe that both are destined to crash and burn before winning the nomination. If they do not do so, skeptics warn, either candidate is a near-certain loser to Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in a general election. But critics of Trump and Carson have been predicting their demise for months.”

Gov. John Kasich (R) would eliminate the Commerce Department if he were elected president, calling the agency a “cluttered attic,” Bloomberg reports.

“Kasich would transfer many of the department’s duties to other agencies, according to a proposal released by his campaign. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA, which accounts for about half the department’s budget and includes the National Weather Service and the National Hurricane Center, would move to the Department of Interior.”

He said the department is a repository for “hiding political pet projects, outdated programs, and agencies without a logical home” and “no longer makes sense.”

On the surface, I actually agree with Kasich here. I am a liberal Democrat, but I also want efficient government. I like reorganizing things too. Why is NOAA and the NWS in the COMMERCE department? To me they belong in either Interior or Homeland Security. And if the rest of the department is nothing but waste, then get rid of it. Or if it is of some value, then consolidate it with the Office of the US Trade Rep and the Labor Department and create the Department of Business and Labor.

Jane Sanders told Yahoo News that her husband’s presidential campaign is less about winning than about setting the agenda.

Said Sanders: “He’s doing what he aimed to do… The last election the candidates didn’t talk about inequality, they didn’t talk about fairness, they didn’t talk about climate change. He’s setting the agenda. That’s what it’s about.”

EXACTLY! And should stay in until the end.

First Read says Ben Carson is a strong frontrunner: “Not only is Carson leading the Republican horserace with the highest percentage yet in our poll (29%), he also hits 50% when you combine GOP voters’ first and second choices — the only Republican presidential candidate to do that. Then take the fact that he’s raising the most money in the Republican race (his campaign reported raising $10 million in October alone, putting it on pace to raise $30 million for the quarter). And then add in that he gets the most social-media interaction when it comes to Facebook.”

“Anyone who wants to dismiss Carson as Herman Cain or Michele Bachmann is making a big mistake.”