Monday Open Thread [11.16.15]

NEW HAMPSHIRE—Gravis: Clinton 46, Sanders 25, O’Malley 3

I tend not to believe this poll. New Hampshire will be close, just be virture of Sanders’ appeal and his being a familiar neighbor from Vermont. Clinton may well be leading, but not by 21 points.

NEW HAMPSHIRE—Gravis: Trump 29, Cruz 12, Rubio 10, Bush 8, Christie 8, Carson 7, Kasich 5, Paul 5, Fiorina 4, Jindal 1, Huckabee 1

The headline in this poll is that Carson has collapsed in New Hampshire while Cruz is making his move.

President Obama, in a press conference today, posted above in full, responded to his critics on ISIS. Obama said “when you actually listen to what [my critics] have to say, what they’re proposing, most of the time, when pressed, they describe things we’re already doing.”

“It took just 48 hours, but the tragic terror attacks on Paris have quickly cleaved the 2016 Republican primary into a contest between those with serious foreign policy experience and those without, shifting the race, at least for now, from a campaign for the presidency to a test for commander in chief,” Politico reports.

“The disparity between candidates has been present and glaring for months, of course, but it took a backseat in a primary where experience has been akin to a dirty word, and early state voters haven’t demanded great familiarity with world affairs. The question for 2016 now turns on whether foreign policy fluency and the seasoning of elected office somehow morphs into an asset, a development which could dislodge the two outsiders who are currently perched comfortably atop the polls – Donald Trump and Ben Carson – and reorder the race.”

Rick Klein: “The Paris attacks have reordered presidential politics and priorities, and the reflex is to say this that is a time for grown-ups. Experience matters, or so the thinking goes, as backed up by previous campaigns.”

“But this so far cycle would suggest that a Bush isn’t the strongest messenger for a fresh take on foreign policy. It’s not clear a 40-something first-term senator would be the obvious Republican alternative, either. (Trump’s pre-Paris vow to “bomb the s—” out of ISIS might not be a thought-out proposal, but it does have a certain clarity to it that could match the moment.) As for the Democrats, Hillary Clinton has the superior experience, yet her middling debate performance wasn’t the showcase her campaign would have hope for. We don’t know yet where this moment will lead, but the candidates are appealing to a different mood among voters as of this past weekend.”

So Bush, Christie, Rubio and Kasich could all gain from this. But then again, according to that vile fiend Anne Coulter, Donald Trump was elected President somehow on Friday night.

Brendan Nyhan says, however, that we shouldn’t overestimate the impact of the Paris Attacks on the 2016 election: “How long-lasting an effect will the Paris attacks have on the United States presidential race? Absent further attacks, the suggestion that Paris will prove to be a ‘game changer’ is unlikely to be correct. Though unexpected events like Mitt Romney’s ’47 percent’ taped remarks or the Ebola outbreak often seem tremendously important at the time, their effects on the polls and the content of debate are often less durable than we expect. Even the killing of Osama bin Laden had little discernible effect on President Obama’s approval ratings.”

“One initial piece of evidence in favor of this hypothesis: Prices in betting markets tracked by David Rothschild of Microsoft Research over the weekend showed virtually no change in the expected winners of the Democratic and Republican presidential nominations or the general election.”

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) “continued to call for Muslim refugees from Syria to be barred from entering the United States but opening the borders to displaced Christians,” the Washington Post reports.

Said Cruz: “There is no meaningful risk of Christians committing acts of terror. If there were a group of radical Christians pledging to murder anyone who had a different religious view than they, we would have a different national security situation.”

Uh…. Mr. Cruz, have you met the KKK? Have you met Timothy McVeigh? Have you met Eric Rudolph? Have you met White Supremacists (I know you have since they are your base as a Republican)? Christians are every bit as capable of committing terrorism. It has happened time and again.

From Gawker:

In July, former Tennessee congressional candidate, and Christian minister Robert Doggart was indicted by a federal grand jury for allegedly plotting to burn down a mosque in upstate New York. “We will be cruel to them. And we will burn down their buildings [Referring to their mosque and school.]…and if anybody attempts to harm us in any way…we will take them down,” Doggart, recorded over wiretap, told Texas and South Carolina militia members, according to the Daily Beast.

“Our small group will soon be faced with the fight of our lives. We will offer those lives as collateral to prove our commitment to our God,” he wrote on social media. “We shall be Warriors who inflict horrible numbers of casualties upon the enemies of our Nation and World Peace.”

In 2009, the Department of Homeland Security issued a report—later withdrawn by Secretary Janet Napolitano under pressure from conservatives in Congress—on “Rightwing Extremism.” After Anders Behring Breivik, reportedly influenced by right-wing American bloggers, slaughtered 77 people in Oslo and dedicated a 1,500-page manifesto to warning of the threat of Islam, the report’s primary author, Daryl Johnson, told the New York Times that the Hutaree, an extremist Christian militia in Michigan, possessed more weapons than all of the Muslim terrorists charged in the United States since the 9/11 attacks combined.

Politico: “He has more cash than any other Republican candidate. He is organized in every county in the first four voting states. And he has served up one strong debate performance after the next. Now, not three months from primary season, rivals concede they have begun to fear Ted Cruz has an increasingly clear path to the Republican nomination.”

I have said it all along, Ted Cruz will be the 2016 Republican Nominee for President.

The Los Angeles Times Editorial Board asks what is the sensible response to this horrific act?

Even before Friday’s outrage, some of Obama’s critics were calling for an escalation in U.S. military activity against Islamic State. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a presidential candidate, has proposed sending 10,000 troops to the region to fortify the fight against Islamic State. We expect to hear more calls for escalation after the horror in Paris.

Such calls are understandable. It is of course frustrating and troubling that the U.S. and its allies have had such difficulty combating Islamic State, Al Qaeda and other radical Muslim groups despite our clear military superiority. Yet the reality is that Americans and Europeans are reluctant to be drawn back into full-scale war in the Middle East, wars to which they are not fully committed, which often require years of sacrifice and which they often do not win.

This page has supported Obama’s call for “a steady, relentless effort” against Islamic State using air power and relying on actions of local forces — but not U.S. “boots on the ground.” Horrific as Friday’s attacks were, they shouldn’t lead to a sudden, reactive lurch in U.S. policy.

D.D. Guttenplan at The Nation says the most recent Democratic Debate took place on a different planet:

The first thing to say about Saturday’s Democratic debate is that it took place on a different planet than Tuesday’s Republican debate. This planet—let’s call it “Earth”—is not just a dangerous place, it’s a complicated one, where America’s military might doesn’t always determine the outcome of events.

It’s a planet where threat of climate change is uncontroversial. As is the need for comprehensive immigration reform, including a path to citizenship for those immigrants already here. And while the difference between $12 and $15 an hour is not trivial—especially for those trying to living on it—the Democrats were unanimous: American workers need a raise. The contrast with the Republicans, who continue to be led by Donald Trump on this as on so many issues, couldn’t have been sharper. […]

But with the gruesome images of slaughter in Paris still dominating the media, it was also inevitable that this debate would be different. Foreign policy—specifically the danger posed by ISIS—was suddenly center stage, giving Hillary Clinton a home-field advantage the former secretary of state exploited fully. Bernie Sanders tried to make the (perfectly plausible) argument that America’s invasion of Iraq—which he opposed and Clinton supported—planted the seeds for the current chaos. And his invocation of the US role in installing the Shah in Iran in 1954 and deposing Allende in Chile was a reminder that it isn’t just economic policy that divides liberals from radicals. But Sanders was simply not focused enough, or ruthless enough, to drive home the point.

Steven Benen says the GOP Candidates this weekend offered a lesson on how not to respond to terrorism. You don’t respond with fear, panic, sectarian rage, and bigotry.

To be sure, there are too many reactionary, overly simplistic attitudes on the right, which seem to give Republicans some emotional satisfaction without much regard for responsible policymaking. But there’s also the unnerving track record of many Republican officials – including would-be presidents – who seem to fall to pieces every time there’s a crisis. The benefit of a lengthy national campaign is that it gives voters a chance to see who’s made of sterner stuff, and who isn’t.

I don’t mean to be callous here, but the Paris Attacks are not 9/11. They are not the end of the world. It is a tragedy to be sure. Horrific. But it was a terrorist attack. And terror attacks are going to happen in this world. What we have to do now is investigate, track down those responsible, kill or capture them, but most importantly, respond smartly.

God Bless Aaron Rodgers for calling out the blatant racist attitude of at least one (or some) Green Bay fans who shouted “MUSLIMS SUCK” during the moment of silence yesterday prior to the Green Bay football game against the Detroit Lions.

The right wing is now attacking Rodgers, apparently.