We have a Republican style free for all in the primary for Lt. Governor. For the first time in many decades, the office is open with no obvious “next in line” candidate running, hence the scrum.
State Senator Bethany Hall Longseems to be the favorite, or at least, the establishment favorite, as she has garnered significant support from Legislative Hall, which of course is natural given her current job, including 14 of her fellow Democratic legislators, led by Patti Blevins and Dave McBride.
Trying to handicap this primary is more difficult than the Congressional primary because the lanes of the primary is not as obvious. Yes, Hall-Long is the nominal frontrunner. She can count on establishment support, and support from the South Newark, Glasgow and Middletown areas. In terms of ideology, though, is she a Carperite? Or is she a progressive? Given how hard we had to lobby her on marriage equality, I doubt she can be described as a true progressive, but I also don’t get the sense that she is a Carperite.
Indeed, from the field, I do not feel that any of the candidates can lay claim to either one of the ideological lanes of support in the party. That is what makes this race different from the wide open congressional primary, where Bryon Short is the obvious Carperite and Bryan Townsend is the obvious progressive.
The first candidate in the race, Kent County County Commissioner Brad Eaby, is still an unknown apart from his base of support in part of Kent County. And yes, I know that he is actually a Levy Court Commissioner and not a County Commissioner. But that is stupid, and Kent County is stupid for referring to their County Government as a Levy Court. When I say Levy Court, people naturally think of… guess what… a Court. So they think Brad Eaby and his fellow commissioners are judges. So I am calling them County Commissioners from now on.
Sherry Dorsey Walkeris inexplicably running. She is a Wilmington City Councilwoman who challenged Senator Bob Marshall in a primary in 2014 in the 3rd Senatorial District. She lost a razor thin campaign, 51-49. It would make more sense to make another go of it in 2018, or, if a miracle strikes and Marshall is elected Wilmington Mayor in 2016, run in a special election to replace him. It just seems odd to go from losing a primary for Senator to Lt. Governor. That said, Dorsey Walker can claim support from the state’s most populous city, and in a primary where the voter doesn’t recognize the names of anyone, having more people recognize their city councilwoman is an advantage.
Rehoboth Beach Commissioner Kathy McGuiness is an interesting candidate. She is the endorsed candidate of House Speaker Peter Schwartzkopf. So that gives her some relevance in the race that she would not otherwise on her own. Indeed, she has deservedly received the Celia Cohen scorn treatment, given her history of changing political affliations and residences:
For now, McGuiness is a Democrat, but it does not exactly come with the ringing resolve of Democrat today, Democrat tomorrow, Democrat forever. Since McGuiness first registered to vote in Delaware in 1995, state election records show she has gone from Republican to Democrat to Republican to missing from the rolls — she did not vote here in 2012 — to the minor Independent Party of Delaware to Democrat.
McGuiness is a factor because Schwartzkopf wants her to be a factor. For what purpose I have no idea.
Former Sussex County Register of Wills Greg Fuller is also running, and he is a well known name down in Sussex County. But that is really it. Current New Castle County Register of Wills Ciro Poppiti is also running, for reasons passing understanding. He doesn’t seem to have an online campaign presence yet, which makes me wonder if he is reconsidering jumping into the mess that the New Castle County Executive and Council President races.
So if I had to handicap this race at this early stage, it would be based on location, name recognition and establishment support. Hall-Long is the most well known candidate next to Poppiti. Hall-Long wins the Establishment battle with McGuiness. Thus, she is the frontrunner. I feel like Fuller and McGuiness cancel each other out in terms of dividing their Sussex County support. Poppiti remains relevant, and in my estimation, based on his New Castle County countywide position and thus higher name recognition. Dorsey Walker will have a larger base of support just based on her former Wilmington council district.
So my “power rankings” of the race at this moment is:
1. Hall Long
2. Poppiti
3. Dorsey Walker
4. McGuiness
5. Fuller
6. Eaby
