Christmas Eve Open Thread [12.24.2015]

Politifact: “In considering our annual Lie of the Year, we found our only real contenders were Trump’s — his various statements also led our Readers’ Poll. But it was hard to single one out from the others. So we have rolled them into one big trophy.”

“When it comes to inaccurate statements, the Donald was on fire.”

Politico on when the GOP Establishment embraces Cruz: “In email after email, the political arm of Senate Republicans — part of what Cruz has repeatedly derided on the campaign trail as the ‘Washington cartel’ — has teased Cruz’s upcoming birthday to gin up new online supporters… The NRSC isn’t just hitting its existing fundraising lists with Cruz’s birthday reminders. They’re using the occasion to drum up new donors, renting out email files from Rick Perry and Mitt Romney and asking them to celebrate Cruz, too.”

“The reason: While Cruz may be a persona-non-grata at the weekly Senate Republican luncheons on Capitol Hill, he remains a powerful force in drawing small donors to a party that still lags far behind the Democrats when it comes to online fundraising prowess.”

Matt Yglesias:

In his classic study of the politics of the Jim Crow South, Southern Politics in State and Nation, V.O. Key observed that the politics of white supremacy was strongest and most salient precisely in the states and counties that had the fewest white people. In a state like Arkansas or Texas or Tennessee that has relatively few African Americans, there was little need for an explicit white supremacy politics to ensure that white people would, in fact, be supreme. These states, not coincidentally, generated some white politicians who were racially moderate by the standards of the time and place.

In Mississippi or South Carolina, where the demographics looked different, by contrast, any hint of racial moderation would be deadly. The smaller white communities in those states were more politically vulnerable, and required a more vigorous politics of white supremacy to maintain their control.

It’s natural for a toned-down version of that to play out as the United States becomes a less white country. When whites were 80 or 90 percent of the population, they did not constitute a “demographic” that could be meaningfully mobilized around white identity — instead, splits within the white community (North versus South, Protestant versus Catholic) were highly salient. But as whites become less numerous, appealing to white voters as such becomes a more viable political strategy.

Trump has surged to the top of the GOP pack by exploiting that opportunity with an unusual level of vigor and an unusual lack of subterfuge. But he’s not the first politician to see the opportunity, and he certainly won’t be the last. And Democrats who simply ignore the reality that people expressing concern about the changing demographic face of America are in fact concerned about the changing demographic face of America do so at their own peril.

Politico: “Conservative talk radio likes to flirt with Donald Trump, but its hosts are showing their commitment to Ted Cruz. With a month left until the Iowa caucuses, attacks on the ascendant 2016 contender have nudged his talk radio supporters back into line, pushing them to throw their valuable support behind the candidate they want to win rather than the one who assures a strong audience.”

A Morning Consult analysis looks at the fact that Donald Trump generally has done better in online polls than in phone surveys.

Los Angeles Times: “The firm conducted an experiment aimed at understanding why that happens and which polls are more accurate — online surveys that have tended to show Trump with support of nearly four-in-10 GOP voters or the telephone surveys that have typically shown him with the backing of one-third or fewer. Their results suggest that the higher figure probably provides the more accurate measure.”

“Some significant number of Trump supporters, especially those with college educations, are ‘less likely to say that they support him when they’re talking to a live human’ than when they are in the ‘anonymous environment’ of an online survey.”