2016: The General Assembly
Here is our update on the race for the General Assembly next year. The Democrats hold majorities in both houses, 25-16 in the House and 12-9 in the Senate. Only half of the Senate seats are up for election next year, for four year terms. All of the House seats are up for two year terms. The Republicans only need to net 2 seats in the Senate to win control, while they will need to win 5 seats in the House to win control.
The purpose of this chart below is to show you which seats are competitive and which are not. The number besides each officeholder’s name is the percentage of the vote that that officeholder received in their last election. And based off that number, I rank the seats either Safe, Lean D/R, or Competitive. If the number is shaded in Dark Red or Dark Blue, the district is safe for the incumbent party. If the number is a lighter shade of blue or red, that district leans either Republican or Democratic, meaning the race could get competitive in the right conditions, but it is likely to go to the incumbent party. If the number and the whole district is shaded in yellow, then it is competitive.
My judgment on which district is competitive, at this stage, has a lot to do with how the incumbent performed in his or her prior election. I also factor into my consideration the nature of the district. For example, Trey Paradee’s and Andria Bennett’s districts will be competitive no matter how long they are in office, because of their district’s more conservative lean, and based on their percentage of the vote in the last election. I also include RD18 as competitive because it will be David Bentz’s first real general election, even though he will likely win a full two year term due to the district’s overwhelming Democratic registration edge in general elections. I include RD7, Bryon Short’s district, as competitive because it is an open seat with a history a decade ago of voting Republican. But that race will depend heavily on who will run to replace Short.
So what are you all hearing out there? Who is running? Who is retiring?
Not that this is included since he is not up for re-election, but what happens if Bryan Townsend wins the race for Congress?
There would be a special election.
If… no .. WHEN Bryan Townsend wins both the Congressional Primary and then the general election, he will resign his State Senate seat, perhaps as soon as possible so as to allow there to be a special election at some point in late December or early January.
Title 15 § 7101 of the Delaware code, titled Vacancies in General Assembly; writs of election, says as follows:
So let’s say Townsend resigns on November 9. Governor Markell may issue a write of election within 10 days after the date of the resignation, since the GA is not in session. He doesn’t have to wait the full 10 days, but he has to do it within 10 days.
§ 7102, titled Day for holding special election, says in relevant part:
So if Markell issues the writ on November 20, he must set the date for the special election in the writ between December 19 and 24. But that is all dependent on when Bryan resigns, and how soon Markell issues the writ.
I wonder if Cooke would challenge Lawson again. I expect she would have won the race in 2012 if she started earlier. Really, I would support nearly anyone who isn’t Lawson.
Who will seek to replace Short?
One important filter would be the candidate’s views on state tax policy, and in particular, the temperature of the candidate’s blood after he or she reads this:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/30/business/economy/for-the-wealthiest-private-tax-system-saves-them-billions.html
I’d LOVE to see Kathleen Cooke challenge Lawson again.
She’d be a huge upgrade, and it could happen. Plus, the ‘e’ at the end of the name makes all the difference.
D’s haven’t exactly come out of the woodwork to run for Short’s seat. Dave Brady is yet once again planning to run. I love Dave, but he’s really old news, and lacks a message that would resonate with voters. The President of the Ashbourne Hills CA is rumored to be considering a bid. I met him and liked him, but we’re not talking a young go-getter here, and I didn’t sense the fire in his belly.
R’s can still compete in this district if the D candidate is uninspired. With so much more of this district centered in Claymont than before, a candidate with a message of economic fairness could catch fire.
It is a shame to see the uncontested seats in a Dem wave year. Oh yeah, the Democratic Party sucks and is lead by GOP leaning hacks. I forgot for a second.
Jason, the “uncontested seats” listed in the chart reflect 2014, which was a wave year for Republicans. The chart does not reflect 2016 contests. I expect both parties will seek to contest as many seats as possible. There are problems, however:
There are, as noted, very few seats that are competitive. It is hard to recruit candidates to run for those seats. I am honest with prospective candidates and show them results for past elections and explain to them the difficulties they will face. I also tell them what limited resources the Party can provide and what they must do themselves. I have been successful in finding qualified people who are interested in running for seats that are competitive, only to lose them when the realize how nasty the other side is when facing a challenge. They decide they cannot put themselves and their loved ones through that.
I have my list if seats that are competitive. I do not use the 2014 results, where the Democratic and no-party turnouts were historically low and the Republican turnout near historic highs ( for a non-presidential year). The 2012 turnout is more predictive of who will vote in 2016.
That said, in Sussex County we will have contests for two state senate and nine state house seats, as well as two county council seats and one row office (Clerk of the Peace). I have people running for or very interested in less than half of them. If anyone knows of someone who shares basic Democratic values, and who is interested in serving others in elected office, have them contact me (judgemitch@aol.com).