Here is our update on the race for the General Assembly next year. The Democrats hold majorities in both houses, 25-16 in the House and 12-9 in the Senate. Only half of the Senate seats are up for election next year, for four year terms. All of the House seats are up for two year terms. The Republicans only need to net 2 seats in the Senate to win control, while they will need to win 5 seats in the House to win control.
The purpose of this chart below is to show you which seats are competitive and which are not. The number besides each officeholder’s name is the percentage of the vote that that officeholder received in their last election. And based off that number, I rank the seats either Safe, Lean D/R, or Competitive. If the number is shaded in Dark Red or Dark Blue, the district is safe for the incumbent party. If the number is a lighter shade of blue or red, that district leans either Republican or Democratic, meaning the race could get competitive in the right conditions, but it is likely to go to the incumbent party. If the number and the whole district is shaded in yellow, then it is competitive.
My judgment on which district is competitive, at this stage, has a lot to do with how the incumbent performed in his or her prior election. I also factor into my consideration the nature of the district. For example, Trey Paradee’s and Andria Bennett’s districts will be competitive no matter how long they are in office, because of their district’s more conservative lean, and based on their percentage of the vote in the last election. I also include RD18 as competitive because it will be David Bentz’s first real general election, even though he will likely win a full two year term due to the district’s overwhelming Democratic registration edge in general elections. I include RD7, Bryon Short’s district, as competitive because it is an open seat with a history a decade ago of voting Republican. But that race will depend heavily on who will run to replace Short.
So what are you all hearing out there? Who is running? Who is retiring?
