There’s an interesting analysis of a year’s worth of polling data out today from Reuters about party identification, and it shows how deep a challenge the GOP faces in the fall. Here’s an excerpt:
In 2012, Democrats made up 44.7 percent of party-affiliated likely voters, compared to 39.1 percent Republicans, a difference of about 6 percentage points, according to the analysis of 87,778 likely presidential voters polled leading up to the 2012 presidential election. The results have a credibility interval of plus or minus 0.3 percentage points.
Three years later, that lead had grown to nine points, 45.9 percent to 36.9 percent, according to the analysis of 93,181 likely presidential voters polled in 2015. The results in 2015 have the same credibility interval as 2012.
Among Hispanics who are likely presidential voters, the percentage affiliated with the Republican Party has slipped nearly five points, from 30.6 percent in 2012 to 26 percent in 2015. Meanwhile, Hispanic Democrats grew by six percentage points to 59.6 percent.
Kevin Drum says the demographic problems for Republicans are here now:
Older whites are generally attracted to traditional conservative values and the vague racial dog whistles that Republicans specialize in. But younger whites are probably turned off by social troglodytism—especially anti-gay animus—and don’t respond to the dog whistles one way or another. So they’re leaving.
Ed Kilgore says this polls shows that the Obama Coalition is holding up very well.
The central question is whether the stability of the Obama coalition is attributable to what Democrats are doing to keep them happy or what Republicans are doing to repulse them, for all the GOP’s protestations of inclusiveness. If the latter is the case, Republicans might want to nominate a candidate (e.g., the relatively young Hispanic candidate Marco Rubio) with a fighting chance of mitigating the damage. If the former is the case, it would seem the theory that Obama and only Obama can keep “his” coalition together might be wrong, and Republicans have a bigger problem than the precise identity of their nominee.
Sam Nunberg, a former Trump political adviser to Donald Trump, told the Daily Beast that he doesn’t think the billionaire presidential candidate will win the GOP nomination.
Said Nunberg: “Based on public polling that I have seen and based on a downward trend, which includes a downward trend in New Hampshire, it includes Ted Cruz consolidating social conservatives in Iowa. I am concerned that Mr. Trump will not be able to get into the position to win South Carolina, which is his strongest state of support. He has to get there. Now that the race is tightening, it’s more difficult for him to get to South Carolina, which is the real firewall.”
“Rape is non-existent in marriage, take what you want my friend!” — Texas state Rep. Jonathan Strickland (R), quoted by the Texas Observer. The enlightenment among Republicans continues apace.
For years, conservatives have accused Democrats of being socialists. And for years, liberals have accused Republicans of being fascists. It’s never been true — until maybe now, when there is an actual democratic socialist in the 2016 presidential race, along with a Republican whom many, including some in his own party, say borders on fascistic.
While Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders could not be farther apart ideologically, both have built nontraditional movements around their presidential candidacies by appealing to some of the same disaffected voters, those who appreciate blunt talk and an anti-establishment message.
Now, Sanders and his aides are making a direct attempt to woo at least some would-be Trump fans away from the dark side of populism, especially in New Hampshire, which has an open primary system that allows even a small number of independent voters to make a big impact.
Benjy Sarlin on Rubio’s failure to launch:
Rubio doesn’t have any unique advantage in Iowa, which Cruz looks favored to win, or New Hampshire and South Carolina. If he doesn’t dominate the establishment lane in the first few contests, he might never get off the ground.
Who’s to blame for Rubio’s ongoing failure to launch? Noel points the finger at the candidate currently leading national polls who seems to short circuit every theory of conventional politics.
“Trump seemed to suck all the air out of the process, and that made it hard for people to figure out which of the party-friendly candidates (Bush, Rubio, Walker, Christie, etc.) were the best,” Noel said. “So Trump had an impact, even if he’s not the nominee.”
This failure to cohere has created an opening for an unconventional candidate like Trump or Cruz to potentially break out of the usual “party decides” model.
Hillary Clinton has some advice for all those Republicans who claim they don’t have the scientific expertise to address issues of climate change.
Clinton noted that when asked if human activity contributes to climate change, many Republican lawmakers respond by saying, “I’m not a scientist.”
“The answer to that is, ‘Go talk to one,'” Clinton said.
The former Secretary of State said that lawmakers need to stop letting politics get in the way of policy to address climate change, criticizing Republicans who “are under the thumb of the fossil fuel industry, and in particular the Koch brothers.”