Year: 2015

In his classic study of the politics of the Jim Crow South, Southern Politics in State and Nation, V.O. Key observed that the politics of white supremacy was strongest and most salient precisely in the states and counties that had the fewest white people. In a state like Arkansas or Texas or Tennessee that has relatively few African Americans, there was little need for an explicit white supremacy politics to ensure that white people would, in fact, be supreme. These states, not coincidentally, generated some white politicians who were racially moderate by the standards of the time and place. In Mississippi or South Carolina, where the demographics looked different, by contrast, any hint of racial moderation would be deadly. The smaller white communities in those states were more politically vulnerable, and required a more vigorous politics of white supremacy to maintain their control. It's natural for a toned-down version of that to play out as the United States becomes a less white country. When whites were 80 or 90 percent of the population, they did not constitute a "demographic" that could be meaningfully mobilized around white identity — instead, splits within the white community (North versus South, Protestant versus Catholic) were highly salient. But as whites become less numerous, appealing to white voters as such becomes a more viable political strategy. Trump has surged to the top of the GOP pack by exploiting that opportunity with an unusual level of vigor and an unusual lack of subterfuge. But he's not the first politician to see the opportunity, and he certainly won't be the last. And Democrats who simply ignore the reality that people expressing concern about the changing demographic face of America are in fact concerned about the changing demographic face of America do so at their own peril.

People of all stripes have a great ability to decide that what they cannot prevent is in fact awesome. I would go as far as to say that the big thing to watch right now, the big event, isn't so much Trump and Cruz's poll numbers and whether they'll hold up as the increasing signs that the Republican party is beginning the process of embracing that outcome.