Sunday Open Thread [1.3.2016]

Peggy Noonan thinks her great St. Ronni’s Party may break apart in 2016: “I have not seen a political cycle so confounding in my lifetime, and it could continue into a year of the most historic kind. If you love politics—the excitement, the unknowability, the to-and-fro—this is the year for you. If you take unhappy U.S. political trends seriously—the shallowness, the restiveness, the division of our polity—you will feel legitimate concern.”

“We could see a great party split in two. That, I think, is what I’m seeing among the Republicans, a slow-motion break. The question is whether it will play out over the next few cycles or turn abrupt and fiery in this one. Some in Washington speak giddily of the prospect, wondering aloud if the new party’s logo should be a lion or a gazelle. But America’s two-party system has reigned almost since its beginning, and it has kept us from much woe. It has provided stability, reliability and, yes, progress. The breaking or splintering of one of those parties would be an epochal event.”

“If the GOP breaks it will be bitter. The establishment thinks they are saving the party from the vandals—from Trumpian know-nothingism. But Republicans on the ground think those in the establishment were the vandals, with their open borders, donor-class interests and social liberalism.”

The HuffPost Pollster averages show Donald Trump with a double-digit lead and five candidates — Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, Chris Christie, John Kasich and Jeb Bush — bunched within 7 points of each other for second place. For four of them (except Cruz who is currently leading in Iowa) the primary may make or break their chances. And it is not only about in what place they finish but the strength of their finish. If the establishment choices are all bunched together in the low teens or high single digits, that is a disaster for the establishment. If one or two of them finish at 20 and 15 behind Trump and Cruz, that is much better.

If Christie or Kasich don’t finish strong, they are gone.

Sen. Bernie Sanders raised $33 million in the fourth quarter of 2015. Key takeaway: “Most of Sanders’ fundraising came through online donations from 2.5 million people during 2015, a number that his team said surpassed President Barack Obama’s record number of 2.2 million donations in 2011.”

Source: Vox.

The New York Times on how another election year threatens Social Security, but also offers a chance to shore up the much-needed program.

This election season offers an opportunity to reframe the debate over Social Security. It is necessary, of course, to ensure the program’s long-term health beyond 2034, when the system is projected to come up short. But this can’t be done by broadly cutting benefits. In fact, there’s mounting evidence that Social Security, which has become ever more important in retirement, needs to be expanded. …

In 2013, 44 percent of workers on the lower half of the income scale had a retirement plan at work, down from 54 percent in 1995, according to data from the Federal Reserve.

Despite these facts, nearly all Republican candidates have called for cuts to Social Security benefits.

It is simple enough to protect and expand Social Security: remove the income cap. That move alone saves it forever.