Trump’s 50 State Strategy Should Worry Democrats
I get a lot of good-natured guff around here about being a nervous Nellie. But when you’ve seen the Democratic Party, and Democratic candidates fuck up sure things as many times as I have, I think you’ve earned your jitters. When Democrats strive for “50% plus 1” and Republicans go all out in every state to create an aura of success, Democrats lose.
Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump brought his campaign to Massachusetts, with Trump headlining a rally at Lowell’s Tsongas Center.
The Tsongas Center was at its full capacity as thousands turned out to listen to Trump discuss his campaign and his competitiors.
Donald Trump’s plan to visit Burlington has stirred turmoil among Vermonters, including expressions of support, at least three planned protests and a petition aimed at stopping the event.
The leading Republican presidential candidate is scheduled to speak Thursday evening in Burlington, home of Democratic candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt.
Pearl Gilbert of St. Albans is looking forward to attending the event with her husband.
“I felt sad to see that some people were applying for the tickets just so others couldn’t get it,” Gilbert said, referring to social media posts saying that Trump opponents would reserve seats in the 1,400-capacity theater, then leave them empty.
Gilbert identifies herself as an independent voter. She said she likes Trump’s business experience and policies against illegal immigration.
You confuse crowds at rallys with an honest to goodness ground GOTV operations that Howard Dean sought to put in every state. The latter was the 50 State Strategy. As of yet, there is no evidence that Trump has ground GOTV operations even in Iowa or New Hampshire. Seriously.
You might be fighting the last war. Trump has spent virtually nothing on advertising. He is changing the rules of the primary system, so why wouldn’t he go on to rewrite the rules for the general?
Anyone who thinks Trump is going to be easy to beat is living in a dreamworld.
Let’s wait for some actual election results.
We are in uncharted waters politically. There has never been a candidate like Trump, especially in this age of 24 hour media. This is going to be fun / terrifying.
Well said.
Let’s see how he reacts to losing badly in Iowa.
Simply put, Trump’s campaign is feeding on dissatisfaction. His brand of populism is akin to “I’m mad as hell and I’m not going to take it anymore.”
Do nothing Congress
Hyperbolic political correctness
Unending war
Immigration fears
Terrorism fears
Economic opportunity
Et al
He is connecting largely with middle class workers who feel disenfranchised because in their minds, government seems to work only for the margins of the bell curve (the haves and have nots). Big banks win, Ivy League students protest Halloween costumes and illegal immigrants receive benefits but the door is closed on the vast middle class for anything and everything. People are angry at government, not just for what they have done, but what they haven’t done. I’m not sure of the actual facts, but here is a perception. Obamacare gives free/subsidized medical care to those who did not have it, but the middle class has found themselves having to pay more for less under the same system. And then there is Wall Street, who continues to do exactly what they did before the financial collapse again leaving the middle class holding the bag. It doesn’t matter if it’s true, it only matters if that’s their perception.
The mistake is to believe that Trump is entertainment. That he doesn’t connect with the people. The question is, will that translate into votes? Will people cut off their nose to spite their face? You bet they will. They do it all the time.
My opinion is that if the GOP nominee is anyone but Trump, Clinton wins in a walk. If it’s Trump, it’s too close to call. Everyone better hope for Cruz.
If Trump could encapsulate that sentiment without wrapping it in hate and fear of the “other,” I think he would be stronger (but would lose some of his base because he wouldn’t be “Trump” and get the free media coverage). I have to cling to my faith at this point that middle white America, even when angry and feeling marginalized, isn’t wholly ignorant and prejudiced. Remember, 40% of the Republican electorate (and Trump is currently pulling around that or less) is only about 20% of the overall voting population. Will others move to his camp should he win the nomination? Some will, but hopefully not enough. Right now, he is being handled with kid gloves by scared Republicans who fear an independent run and an alienation of their “base”. If he wins the nomination, the Dems won’t need to hold back.
@Geezer – The Iowa Caucuses have been way off the last two Republican nominating seasons and also missed the mark in 1980 and 1988. They only correctly predicted the correct candidate in a highly contested election in two of the last six contest. Trump will cite this, call them stupid, and move on.
First, they don’t exist to predict anything. Second, even if they did, all that means is that Cruz shouldn’t count his chickens. Yet Cruz is the only candidate out there who hasn’t gone off message or ruined his chances with a gaffe.
Trump can cite anything he wants, but he will be a loser, and a big one. Expect Chris Christie, especially, to beat this message like a drum in NH, where he has to win to stay viable.
So, while you may be right about his reaction, let’s see what his supporters think and do. Christie’s pitch will be that he’s just as mad as Trump and better positioned to do something about it.
@Dave, This is spot on: “… if the GOP nominee is anyone but Trump, Clinton wins in a walk. If it’s Trump, it’s too close to call. Everyone better hope for Cruz.”
@Geezer, that seems to be team Christie’s view. Beat Bush in Iowa and make the case that he can be both angry and the establishment guy.
Trump could pull a disturbing amount of people who usually vote Democrat or who don’t vote at all. Anecdotally, every black person I have asked likes Trump. The King Fish!
Saying Trump is tapping into the middle class isn’t specific enough. He’s tapping into the older, white middle class. Painting Trump as a person who speaks to the middle class gives him far too much credit and erases what his campaign is really running on. Hint: It isn’t the economy. He also isn’t tapping into all, or even most of them. And while there are always Republicans who will vote R no matter what, there are Rs who will do what they did when it came to having Palin on the ticket – sit the election out or vote D.
The Republican Party is split (lord knows all of us, and others, have written about this enough) so why we’re ignoring that fact when it comes to Trump baffles me. Why are we giving a small portion of the general electorate power they simply won’t have in the general – and make no mistake, those Rs not supporting Trump loathe him. They aren’t indifferent, and many of them would like nothing more than to shove a “true Conservative” loss down the Tea Party/Conservative’s throat. This matters.
He’s media created because he says horrible things that the media gives him a 100% free pass on. Just like they give him a pass on detailing any of his policy positions. He’s all adjectives, no substance. And our media allows this. The question is… how long do they let this go on before they reveal him for the no-nothing fool he is?
Saying that we haven’t dealt with anyone like Trump before isn’t true. He is Sarah Palin – another media created star who was given a pass by the media, until she wasn’t.
Trump continues to hold a solid lead in New Hampshire, but we’re still a way out. They’ve been nice to Christie so far, but that can change in a heartbeat. I’m frankly enjoying the freak show. lol.
Trump attracts a mix of the reliable GOP base, but also unreliable voters. Historically Iowa is something like 12% turnout for Republican primaries. The polling being publicized in the media doesn’t take into account a voters reliability, and his success will depend on his ability to turnout those voters who would otherwise stay home. Obama had success with this, but it’s my understanding he had an organization to get these people out which Trump does not.
Also I would take him as a very serious threat in the general, especially if he shows unreliables turn out for him. He has thrown red meat to the base on two issues: immigration and the military. He can get by the GOP primary (which typically tarnishes a candidate for I and D voters in the general) and still be able to pivot slightly using his many moderate and liberal positions that he has purposely avoided talking about. He may lose some support from the base, but it’s possible he gains even more through doing so.
It is an interesting point indeed. He’s kept his angry conservatism limited to a few key issues and has been very vague about everything else. Perhaps my greatest fear is that this guy is way smarter than we give credit for, at least from a political standpoint.
Palin and Trump are two very different cases. Palin had “ran” a state and was never supported by large crowds, etc. before her selection and being thrust into the spotlight. Trump is what he wants to be. True, the media is letting him getting away with a whole lot, but billionaires generally do. Hopefully that changes soon, but part of his narrative is that the media is elitist and out to get him because they fear the truth. They only play into it by going after him.
With over 60% disapproval ratings, Trump is not much of a threat in the general.
What do you think Secretary Clinton’s disapproval numbers are going to be when the GOP smear machine gets fully cranked up?
Worse still…. what are the Democratic base’s apathy numbers going to look like when Clinton runs an Al Gore style “win the middle of the road voters” strategy?
We already know that Beltway consultants love operating from a defensive crouch. Any number of things could cause the Dem nominee to play a prevent defense. That, I think we agree, would be a disaster.
jason has a critical point–if you reach a general election where you have, say, Trump with 60% negatives running against Hillary with, say, 45+% negatives, then you are literally in no man’s land and no existing models work.
They play football games (sorry, jason, hockey games) because you really don’t know what will happen even if one of the teams is from Philadelphia.
Trump in the general–like McCain or Romney would have been had Obama made a serious error somewhere along the line–is Trump one error away from the White House.
@J “Worse still…. what are the Democratic base’s apathy numbers going to look like when Clinton runs an Al Gore style “win the middle of the road voters” strategy?”
I don’t think that will happen. Hillary will likely pick Sanders as her running mate and try to capitalize on the energy that he has been generating.
What makes this likely? Clinton and Sanders haven’t really been attacking each other. It’s been very tepid. Why is that?
Well, that would be awesome. Too awesome to actually come to pass I’m afraid. I think it is actually more likely that she’d pick Joe Biden.
I don’t think Biden wants the job. And does Hillary really want to make it look like Obama’s 3rd term?
Trump is pretty much where he wants to be. Read Art of the Deal. If he makes it to the general election, he will tone down from 150% to 110%. Everyone will marvel at how much he has compromised even though he will be in the position he wanted all along. The union labor base that has always been dem is split at around 30% trump and growing right now. (at least thats what i’m hearing on jobsites.)
No matter how he looks on tv, he is smart and cunning.
@P “Trump is pretty much where he wants to be.”
But not at all where he needs to be. Frankly, I think he missed his best (and most real opportunity). This says it well:
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2016-01-04/trump-could-have-modernized-the-republican-party
Trump will likely lose, and drag down the GOP with him as he goes.
I don’t see how the nomination winner can fully recover.