Sunday Scalia and Republican Debate Open Thread

Has Donald Trump finally gone too far? Last night, he said the worst terrorist attack in American history occurred on George W. Bush’s watch. That’s true. Last night, he said that George W. Bush lied to the American people about weapons of mass destruction being in Iraq. That’s true. Last night, he said the Iraq War was a disaster. That’s true.

Those are all facts.

Republicans do not like facts, though.

They booed the moderator John Dickerson for pointing out the fact that Anthony Kennedy was confirmed as a Supreme Court Justices in an election year, 1988, because that fact conflicted with the Republican fantasy narrative that no Supreme Justice had ever EVER EVAH been confirmed by any President in an election year going back to the founding of the Republic.

So with Trump aligning himself with the booed moderator, and Democrats, by pointing out what is and is not factual, does that doom him in a Republican race for the Presidency?

It might finally.

Republicans do not like their fantasy roads shaken. But it might not, as Taegan Goddard says: “[I]f everything we’ve seen over the last nine months holds, it seems likely that Trump will get 30% of the vote in South Carolina no matter what he says.”

Then again Trump defended Planned Parenthood too!

Cruz accused Trump of supporting taxpayer funding for Planned Parenthood, hitting Trump for having said, “Planned Parenthood does wonderful things and we should not defund it.” Trump responded by saying that he does believe the organization does “wonderful things” having to do with women’s health “but not when it comes to abortion.” Cruz used Trump’s answer to again accuse the tycoon of being a liberal and claimed that Trump would appoint progressive judges to the Supreme Court.

For conservatives, that will resonate. But Trump has the angry nonideological white nationalist NAZI part of the Republican Party, and right now that part is 30%

Politico: “The free-for-all unmasked the dynamics that have largely played out by press release or in one-off one-liners on the campaign trail. It’s a sign of the rising stakes in South Carolina, which could define the contours of the race over the next few months as a three-way contest among Trump, Cruz and an establishment-backed candidate like Rubio, Bush or Kasich. Ben Carson, a retired neurosurgeon who has trailed in polls, is also hoping the squabbling helps lift his soft-spoken brand, though he had few opportunities to stand out during the debate.”

“It’s unclear which blows hit their mark and who will emerge at the top of the battered heap of rivals. But each candidate urgently needed a strong showing.”

New York Times: “Democrats, sensing a prime opportunity to make Republicans pay a political price for bowing to their hard-liners, moved quickly on Saturday to stir up outrage from their own partisans.”

Said Hillary Clinton: “It is outrageous that Republicans in the Senate and on the campaign trail have already pledged to block any replacement that President Obama nominates.”

“Republican officials privately acknowledged that refusing to bring Mr. Obama’s appointment to a vote could prove difficult to sustain, particularly with the Senate controlled by a handful of Republican incumbents from moderate and liberal-leaning states. It was notable that Senator Rob Portman of Ohio, who faces re-election this year, made no pledge about blocking Mr. Obama’s pick in his statement regarding Justice Scalia’s death.”

It is a world class gift to the Democrats. First, as I said yesterday, thanks to the Republican violent racist hatred of the President, and due to the shock of the unexpected death and the immediate realization that “oh shit, Obama gets to swing the court to a liberal majority for the first time in 50 years,” they reacted rather unwisely last night in demanding complete obstruction. That played right into the Democrats’ hands. And placed the GOP into a lose lose situation. Either they confirm Obama’s nominee, and give the country a liberal majority court for a generation, or they lose 6-7 Blue State Republican Senate Seats and the Presidency due to their obstruction, thus guaranteeing a liberal majority court for a generation. They should have negotiated with Obama for a moderate pick. Now, Obama has no need to negotiate. Either confirm his liberal pick or Hillary will get to confirm her liberal pick. Republicans are very very stupid. They let their racist emotions get the better of them time and again.

Second, with a Supreme Court seat at stake, this is an enthusiasm spiker and uniter for liberals and Democrats for the coming election. Bernie Sanders supporters have to agree that Bill Clinton and Barack Obama’s Supreme Court picks were liberal and so will Hillary Clinton’s. So that means, even the most disappointed Sanders supporter will know that they have to vote Democratic. And that is true for Clinton supporters if Bernie is the nominee, but I see that as more unlikely now than ever, because of Scalia’s death.

James Hohmann asks if Trump really lost last night’s debate: “There is widespread consensus that Donald Trump had a very bad night in Greenville. The question is whether that will cause lasting damage, or if he continues to be coated in Teflon.”

“One of the problems for leaders of the chattering class is that they have been so wrong about Trump so many times for so many months that everyone is gun-shy about predicting his impending decline.”

Rick Klein: “Predictions of Trump doing damage to his own campaign have been almost comically wrong over the past six months … and perhaps Trump is indeed a better student than everyone in the political class has realized. But on a night where the importance of the race was highlighted anew, Trump’s rivals could portray him as flunking a big test.”

SOUTH CAROLINA—ARG–Trump 35, Kasich 15, Rubio 14, Cruz 12, Bush 10, Carson 2
SOUTH CAROLINA—ARG–Clinton 65, Sanders 27
SOUTH CAROLINA—CBS News–Trump 42, Cruz 20, Rubio 15, Kasich 9.
SOUTH CAROLINA—CBS News–Clinton 59, Sanders 40

On the GOP, some widely divergent polling. Trump at 35 or 42? Kasich in 2nd and surging or last and dropping? Cruz in striking distance at 2nd or fading fast in 4th? On the Dem side, Hillary leads by either 19 or 38. She probably leads somewhere in the middle of that.