Trump’s path to the White House
It isn’t about “swing voters” and soccer moms. It isn’t about how many electoral votes Florida has and getting to 270. And it isn’t about what Wolf Blitzer thinks. Those kinds of calculations are ancient history. That’s the Polish Calvary lined up against the mechanized Wehrmacht at Krojanty. If you want to know how a transparent fraud like Trump can make it to the White House, look at what he did to Jeb Bush and ask yourself if the same things can work against Hillary Clinton.
This is from Rolling Stone. As you read substitute “Clinton” for “Bush”
Trump’s basic argument is the same one every successful authoritarian movement in recent Western history has made: that the regular guy has been screwed by a conspiracy of incestuous elites. The Bushes are half that conspiratorial picture, fronts for a Republican Party establishment and whose sum total of accomplishments, dating back nearly 30 years, are two failed presidencies, the sweeping loss of manufacturing jobs, and a pair of pitiable Middle Eastern military adventures – the second one achieving nothing but dead American kids and Junior’s re-election.
Trump picked on Jeb because Jeb is a symbol. The Bushes are a dissolute monarchy, down to offering their last genetic screw-up to the throne.
It isn’t a perfect fit, but it is close.
Reporters have focused quite a lot on the crazy/race-baiting/nativist themes in Trump’s campaign, but these comprise a very small part of his usual presentation. His speeches increasingly are strikingly populist in their content.
His pitch is: He’s rich, he won’t owe anyone anything upon election, and therefore he won’t do what both Democratic and Republican politicians unfailingly do upon taking office, i.e., approve rotten/regressive policies that screw ordinary people.
He talks, for instance, about the anti-trust exemption enjoyed by insurance companies, an atrocity dating back more than half a century, to the McCarran-Ferguson Act of 1945. This law, sponsored by one of the most notorious legislators in our history (Nevada Sen. Pat McCarran was thought to be the inspiration for the corrupt Sen. Pat Geary in The Godfather II), allows insurance companies to share information and collude to divvy up markets.
Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/how-america-made-donald-trump-unstoppable-20160224#ixzz41wyNh42G
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My nightmare…… The GOP runs an Independent Republican (maybe Romney) and doesnt back Trump at all. This, obviously, angers their pin-head voters, but it pulls just enough support from Clinton to win one state. That state could be Florida, or Ohio, or PA. It’s only one state, but it is enough to deny Clinton 270 EVs. The election then goes to the GOP-controlled House of Representatives.
After a distant 3rd place loser is installed as President against the will of most of the people, the path is then cleared for someone even worse than Trump in 2020 (kinda like John Quincy Adams, then the genocidal monster that was Andrew Jackson)
That nightmare isn’t happening. Diddn’t you listen to Charlie Copeland?
Read the whole Rolling Stone piece. everyone (particularly the press) is looking at the wrong stuff. It isn’t the racism that is powering Trump, it is the “F-You!” he is giving to the rigged bullshit system.
“It isn’t the racism that is powering Trump”
They and you are right. Unfortunately to a hammer everything is a nail and when Trump made racist noises, everyone leaps to the conclusion that he is all about racism and therefore his support primarily consists of white nationalists and supremacists.
It’s not even a case of underestimating Trump. Rather it is case of underestimating the multiple dimensions of his support, none of whom employ purity tests because Trump would never pass any of them if they did. So it doesn’t matter if he has some faults. He is nobody’s choice for perfection but he is lot of people’s perfect choice from conservatives to liberals.
People are supporting him because “…because his balls are the size of “watermelons,” while his opponents’ balls are more like “grapes” or “raisins.”
Clinton needs to be the adult, but she has to be prepared to stand up and not be nice. Unfortunately, she is a woman, and when women aren’t nice, up pops the “b****” label. She may be the best one to be able to stop Trump, but even she is going to have a challenge.
We are going to hear a lot from Trump about how Bill Clinton’s signature achievement (NAFTA) brutally fucked over American workers.
And what is Hillary going to say? “No it didn’t”
Please.
I really hope part of Hillary Clinton’s day involves her entire staff, family, and friends saying the cruelest things they can, as sincerely as possible, to her face. Not because I wish for her feelings to be hurt, but so she can be ready to respond to anything. If Drumpf, in a debate, says something about not being able to please her husband, (a right wing favorite) therefor, BENGHAZI, she wont be caught off guard. I know it’s kind of dark, but I think it’s necessary.
Malcom Gladwell was on the Nightly Show the other night talking about Drumpf as the “empathic bully”. He has an ability to identify a person’s biggest insecurity or weakness… like a lot of people can… but he also has the gleeful willingness to use it against them as harshly as possible. It’s why he was able to take out Jeb, It’s how he is able to embarrass “little Rubio”. There are a lot of nasty things that can be said to Clinton’s face (mostly false, but still very cutting) that most people with an ounce of decency would never say. Drumpf will. Over and over again. Probably while she is trying to answer a question.
He is also a chameleon, able to change when necessary to please his clients and sell his product. He was racist because the southern states were voting; now, they’re not and he remembers the KKK is bad. That said, his narrative seems to really only speak to the “populism” of lower middle class whites, a relatively limited demographic that cannot deliver him the White House. He has yet to break 50% of Republican primary voters, even in states where independents can vote, none the less Democrats.
James Carville coined the phrase “The economy, stupid! for Bill Clinton’s 1992 campaign.
The current meme of income equality seems to be less about the economy than – “some people have more than they should.” I would be careful with that meme because in general, people are more concerned the means to get the same thing as those who have more. They don’t want to play Robin Hood (except for the inequality in taxes), but they want a robust economy that works for them. And a robust economy opens a lot of doors for even the most down trodden.
I hope Carville has given some advice to the Clinton campaign because the messaging during the general needs to be very spot on and simple to counter the Trump noise. She will have to keep hammering the point home while standing up and aufering the slings and arrows.
Just putting this out there as one of those “Save the Date” things…
I’ll be hosting a Super Bowl Saturday meet & greet for loyal DL readers on February 4th, 2017 from my new home in Montreal… The family and I will be relocating there on January 20th, so the intervening two weeks after Lord Trump is sworn in will give us time to get settled…
The Crown Royal and LeBlatt’s will be flowing for those in need of a drink or twelve…
Ooh, I heard the halftime show will involve feeding illegal immigrants to lions.
If it’s to be an insult contest Hilary will have some powerful ammunition to use against Trump ranging from multiple bankruptcies, a contempt for American workers and love of cheap imported labor to rich womanizer. As for tough she’s had it going on for over two decades and essentially shut down the Bengahzi Bunch single handedly. As for Trump the chameleon, sure his supporters don’t give a damn but independents and rational Republicans will. As for LaBatts if you don’t want me to show just say so, doing bitter far right for far too long.
real Canadians drink Moosehead.
I’m not wise enough to know whether an insult contest wins the day or the high road. I’d love for it to be the high road, but if your opponent is in the gutter, how do you go after them unless you are there also? It didn’t work for Rubio or Cruz either way. Will people get over enjoying the bombastic reality show with its small dick jokes? I just don’t know.
It isn’t about how many electoral votes Florida has and getting to 270.
Of course it is about getting to 270. Unless you are expecting the Trump reality TV show to morph into Red Dawn or some shit.
Which isn’t to say that Trump doesn’t have a path to 270 — it’s just a very tough one. You’d have to start with assuming that Trump can keep Romney voters AND overcome the GOP deficits with minority voters. The same minority voters their own study said they needed to win future elections. General election voters are a different audience than primary voters and general election voters sent Goldwater and McGovern home at various points.
Bernie supporters are often asked how he is going to get his plans through Congress and I want to hear how Trump would as well. Because it is fine and dandy to note that the pharmaceuticals have a very sweet deal under the ACA, and another thing to get a Congress that relies on funding from these people to vote for it. Trump is still part of the 1% and I have a tough time expecting that he will do anything that will go against his interests. So those tariffs — on what, exactly? Steel? And raise the cost of his own buildings? Or on clothing made in China — raising the cost of the shitty clothes that carry the Trump brand? Seriously? This guy is making a ton of populist noises, but why on earth would he actually follow through on any of it? He won’t benefit from this worth a damn.
I’m one of the people who thought Trump would have been out well before now, so I don’t want to underestimate him. But the Obama campaign did a masterful job of using Romney’s own business interests against him — that series of people talking about losing their jobs points the way here. The guy is as phony as a 3 dollar bill and while the angry 20 or 25% won’t change their minds, there’s a lifetime of Trump narcissism leaving people hurt in its wake that is available to create a different narrative from.
Cass, you dont have to win their vote if you can keep them from voting.
The GOP is doing a pretty good job making sure the states they already control can never flip… mostly through discriminatory laws, but they are still doing it. Basically, Drumpf needs only to excite the sleazeballs in Sow-Filly. I dunno, am I being too panicy? I hope so.
“Bernie supporters are often asked how he is going to get his plans through Congress and I want to hear how Trump would as well.”
Simple. Republican congresses are empty-headed rubber stamps for a Republican president. Democrats have people like Carper.
Cassandra’s comments make perfect sense if voter turnout is still going to be around 76% of registered voters. Is this year going to be just like 2012, 2008 and 2004? I doubt it.
Of the 35 million registered voters who typically never vote – how many of them are going to be Trump voters? Of the 108 million people who are eligible to vote, but aren’t even registered, how many of them are going to register and become Trump voters?
I’d love to hear how Charlie’s voter registration drive is going. If this is going to be a typical 76% turnout election, I’d be a lot more comfortable.
I think perhaps you all may be overdosing on conjecture.
Matt Taibbi has me a little shaken up. I have to admit.
I don’t underestimate Trump – or anyone – in a two person general election. That said, I still don’t see how he wins without women, blacks, Latinos, non-Christians, etc.. Please show me the math.
“I’d be a lot more comfortable.”
Maybe that’s the key. Don’t be. Plan for the unexpected. You can’t do much about the unknown unknowns but you certainly can for the known unknowns. Likely voter analysis is pretty damn critical. I know I’m way ahead of the general, but when a storm is coming, I usually am not one of the ones who need to run out to the store to get toilet paper.
You might not know how bad it’s going to be but everyone knows what’s coming. The good news is Clinton has spent the last 20 years getting dumped on so she probably has the fortitude to get through it.
I’m going to guess that Trump makes a shift once he gets the nomination because it will hit him that he is but a single step away from it. He will all of sudden acquire gravitas; start treating the press; and people in general as less of audience for his vaudeville act and start acting like a leader. He’ll try a little misdirection, some nice ideas about solving some issues, even a path to citizenship. It may even be entertaining and if that doesn’t appear to be working for him, then we will see the real Trump. The one we know and love. He hasn’t come this far without leaving out all the stops. And he has nothing to lose.
@Pandora,
No math, just numbers. First Pew Research, likely voters in various groups: http://www.pewresearch.org/2016/01/07/comparing-the-results-of-different-likely-voter-models/pm_2016-01-07_likely-voters_3-04/
Note, that this is from 2014. But look at the Black turnout. Will they turnout in much greater numbers in 2016? Ditto Hispanics.
Next, current matchup polls from Real Clear Politics: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_presidential_race.html
Look at the numbers for the LVs (likely voters) not RV (registered voters) in the sample column. Of the 2 LV polls one is Clinton +5 the other is Trump +2. Give the margin of error, it looks like a toss up.
Scroll down to look at Sanders/Trump. The only LV poll is Trump +1.
Now jump back to first link and look at the under 30 likely voters. Not very good is it?
So at best we have any D matchup with Trump at just about even, but Sanders’ bros are mostly the under 30 who have poor record of being likely voters. Whoever the candidate is has to GOTV with their core supporters, Blacks and Hispanics for Clinton and under 30s for Sanders. Who has a greater chance of success for GOTV? I’d say Clinton because the blacks are more organized for such activities from an institutional perspective (i.e. churches) than the under 30s who hang out in virtually reality and social media spaces. If they could vote online the turnout for them would be phenomenal but since they actually have to do it in person, well not so much.
Will women be the difference? Could be, but Clinton contends with some negatives there. My view is that women will get sick of Trump and opt for stability even if they don’t like Clinton.
On the whole race v. authoritarianism thing I found this very insightful:
http://www.vox.com/2016/3/1/11127424/trump-authoritarianism
How Trump wins is to turn the race into reality TV. He won the debate last night by simply leaving Rubio and Cruz no options (in their own minds) but to stand on the stage and trade insults with him.
As for the math, pandora, it’s a good question and I’m working on it, but I think the GOP ultimately cannot corporately afford a third-party nominee–they might as well just turn out the lights at HQ, and their candidates cannot en masse run away from their presidential candidate.
Moreover, Cruz’s comments that a brokered convention “ain’t gonna happen,” while obviously self-interested, is insightful. A brokered convention might prevent Trump from getting the nomination, but it would also guarantee the presidency stays Democratic and at least the Senate goes that way as well.
Many Republicans will convince themselves that losing the Senate is worse than having Trump as president because they will convince themselves that once he’s president inside the bureaucracy they will be able to control him.
Fascinating article! I answered the questions. Apparently I don’t have and authoritarian bone in my body.
I had to break one of my own arms. It was suspicious.
Parenting is an interesting lens but nothing terribly new ice George Lakoffs “strick Father” / “nuturing father” model from ten years ago.
Clintonis a hopelessly flawed candidates that will lose to whichever Republican wins the peimary including Trump. She loses to them in National polls now without a negative campaign being run against her. You can’t win a general election if half the country thinks your dishonest. Conjure up Donald Trump pounding her on the email scandal, justice department investigations, her obscene speaking fees and her refusal to release the transcript on the Bear Sterns speeches, and immense personal wealth she and Bill amassed over the last 10 years peddling their celebrity and influence.Nathan Robinson’s article in the Feb 23rd issue of Current Affairs is an excellent analysis of why Sanders would be a much stronger candidate. Bernie needs to start running a strong negative campaign expoiting her personal weaknesses
Email scandal? Justice Department investigations? Obscene speaking fees? Refusal to release the transcript on the Bear Sterns speeches? Immense personal wealth she and Bill amassed over the last 10 years peddling their celebrity and influence?
Goodness! Just wait until everyone finds out about this stuff and… Oh, wait.
Pandora you’re whistling past the graveyard The math is that she now loses to all the republicans without a campaign being run against her exploiting all those issues that go to her being percieved as dishonest. Read the Current Affairs article that I cited and you’ll get some sense of what a C linton general election would look like
Sorry, I don’t put any faith in general election polls this far out. Not to mention, the Electoral College makes National Polls pretty pointless – since we don’t elect Presidents by popular vote. It comes down to winning states, and if states like Ohio, Florida, etc. are going to go for Trump in the end then both our candidates lose.
Her negatives are pretty much already baked into the pie. No one has gone after Sanders so we don’t know where his true negatives would be come November.
To me the questions are: Who can go after Trump better? Who will Trump have a harder time taking down with his usual insults? No one really knows yet, since the R candidates neglected to do oppo research against Trump. That still blows my mind.
I can 100% see why many white men respond to Trump’s tactics – they are familiar to them, and, in most cases, their weapon of choice as well. Simply said… You want to hurt a man? Call him a female body part. Make him effeminate. Brag about penis size.
Yep, Trump’s standard plan of attack, so far, is masculine shaming – and it’s worked against male candidates. But… How does he turn these tactics towards a woman? That’s a serious question, btw. I keep trying to picture his shtick against a women and it falls flat, so help me out here.
@godfather
“her obscene speaking fees” “immense personal wealth”
Whenever I see characterizations like that it’s a tell about the mindset of the one who employs them. The speaking fees were hefty by anyone’s measure. Regardless, they are what she received and what people were willing to pay. Her and her husbands net worth is ~$115M or so. A synonym for “immense” is “vast.” That amount is hardly vast by almost anyone’s definition.
People like you feel the need to pass judgment on things that are contrary to your principles as if everyone should be live in accordance with your standards in hyperbolic. You are no better – and maybe even worse – than the so-called Christians who enjoy crucifixion so much that they simply cannot go through the day without one.
As far as her speeches, no one really cares and she said she would release them when the same standard is applied to all candidates. Thus far it has not.
You don’t like Clinton and you disapprove of her. I get it. I’m sure she can suffer your disapproval as many of us can suffer the disapproval of those who offer their personal judgment as a public service.
Hillary will be under house arrest and Bernie will be in a rest home before November. The Dem’s have a miserable lineup.
Wow! It looks like Trump is done.
It seems that the GOP elites finally got him.
It’s a new game…