Tuesday Open Thread [3.15.16]
Florida—Monmouth–Trump 44, Rubio 27, Cruz 17, Kasich 9
Florida—Trafalgar Group–Trump 44, Rubio 24, Cruz 20, Kasich 9
Florida—ARG–Trump 49, Rubio 24, Cruz 16, Kasich 9
Florida—ARG–Clinton 58, Sanders 37
Ohio—Monmouth–Kasich 40, Trump 35, Cruz 15, Rubio 5
Ohio—Monmouth–Clinton 54, Sanders 40
Ohio—ARG–Kasich 44, Trump 38, Cruz 12, Rubio 2
Ohio—ARG–Clinton 52, Sanders 45
National—Economist/YouGov–Trump 53, Cruz 22, Kasich 11, Rubio 10
National—NBC News/Survey Monkey–Trump 44, Cruz 24, Kasich 12, Rubio 11
National—NBC News/Survey Monkey–Clinton 54, Sanders 41
National—Morning Consult–Clinton 48, Sanders 40
National—YouGov/Economist–Clinton 52, Sanders 40
Donald Trump unites the disparate Democratic coalition like no one else does.
In a hypothetical Clinton v. Trump contest in November, voters under 35 would choose Clinton by a crushing 52%-19%, a preference that crosses demographic lines. Among whites, she’d be backed by nearly 2-1, 45%-26%. Among Hispanics, by more than 4-1, 61%-14%. Among Asian Americans, by 5-1, 60%-11%. Among African Americans, by 13-1, 67%-5%.
It’s increasingly clear there are only three options left for Republicans in picking their presidential nominee: 1) Donald Trump becomes the party nominee by winning 1,237 delegates; 2) Ted Cruz becomes the party nominee through a contested convention; 3) Someone else is picked by a contested convention, bypassing the two largest delegate winners. All three are really bad options. […] It’s hard to see Republicans beating Hillary Clinton in a general election with any of these options. The odds would at least be heavily against them.
Does the GOP Primary end tonight or is it just beginning?
“The Republican presidential campaign will not end next week, or even next month. But voters in the five states casting ballots on Tuesday will go a long way toward determining whether Donald J. Trump can win the 1,237 delegates necessary to claim the party’s nomination,” the New York Times reports.
“If Mr. Trump loses Ohio (possible) or Florida (less likely) and wins less-than-commanding victories in Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, he would face the strong possibility of falling short of a delegate majority and entering a contested Republican convention this summer. But with victories in the home states of two of his rivals, he could end the campaigns of Gov. John Kasich and Sen. Marco Rubio, leaving Sen. Ted Cruz as the only candidate still standing in his way.”
I think Cruz will win Illinois and Missouri, Trump will win Florida and North Carolina, and Kasich will win Ohio. Contested open convention here we come!
One thing that Hillary will do that Gore did not: have the popular incumbent President campaign for you everywhere. Obama is going to be fun on the campaign trail.
Eugene Robinson’s take on Trump’s campaign events and the protests:
The Constitution’s guarantee of free speech applies to everyone, Trumpistas and protesters alike. Trump said over the weekend that he wants demonstrators who gate-crash his rallies to be arrested, not just ejected; he vows that “we’re pressing charges” against them. Someone should educate him: Peacefully disapproving of a politician and his dangerous ideas is not a crime.
Trump seems not to understand that demonstrators have the legal right to protest — and that a candidate for president of the United States has no countervailing right not to be protested. I’m talking about nonviolent demonstrations, of course — but nonviolent does not necessarily mean quiet, timid or small.
At The New Yorker, Ryan Lizza ponders “The Great Divide: Clinton, Sanders, and the future of the Democratic Party.” Lizza quotes Simon Rosenberg, president anad founder of New Democratic network, who adds “Sanders is speaking to a rising generation who want both a better and more responsible capitalism and a better and more ethical politics…Unrigging the system will be a central focus of Democratic politics for years to come–as it should be.”
Hillary would crush Trump in a general election pic.twitter.com/ge2UPOVBte
— Political Line (@PoliticalLine) March 15, 2016
quote from NRO writer exposes contempt for poor whites among anti-Trump right-wing https://t.co/nq7YxanhTD pic.twitter.com/B8KLLHztdC
— HK (@HenryKrinkIe) March 15, 2016
I actually agree with most of this if you change the moniker to poor conservative whites. Those “real” muricans. They feel like they are superior to everyone. They are arrogant yet ignorant. They think foreign policy is a Rambo movie.
The Wall Street Journal has an outstanding delegate simulator to gauge how today’s races will impact the GOP presidential race.
Historian Douglas Brinkley told Yahoo News that Donald Trump is a lot like Richard Nixon.
Said Brinkley: “We keep thinking Reagan is the big conservative figure of our era, but Nixon was dominant in the Republican party. I see Trump learning all the tricks from Nixon — enemy lists, keeping track of who slights you, an immediate nuke-’em attitude.”
First Read: “When this presidential contest started a year ago, and when most of us thought Trump was unlikely to run, we identified three establishment frontrunners: Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, and Marco Rubio. Well, Walker ended his presidential bid two months after formally announcing. Bush, after spending some $82 million over the airwaves throughout the course of the contest, dropped out after finishing fourth in South Carolina. And unless the polling is really off in Florida, Rubio soon could end up exiting the GOP race, though he has been putting on a brave face.”
Caveat: “If Rubio suspends his campaign, many of his delegates would become free agents. So to keep them — and ensure they don’t go to Trump — he could stay in the race.”
Ezra Klein says Donald Trump is too gullible to be President:
On Sunday’s Meet the Press, moderator Chuck Todd pressed Donald Trump on falling for (yet another) internet hoax.
In this case, the hoax was that an Ohio protestor who rushed Trump’s stage over the weekend was tied to ISIS. Trump wasn’t just making this up — he was sent video of the protestor, Thomas DiMassimo, standing in front of the ISIS flag while Arabic music plays in the background.
But the video, which Trump retweeted, was doctored footage. This was pointed out immediately after Trump promoted the clip, but he didn’t seem to have noticed the corrections, or perhaps he didn’t care to notice them. But as his attempts to defend his tweet failed to persuade Todd, Trump finally cut to the epistemological core of his candidacy.
“All I know is what’s on the internet,” Trump said.
The comment launched much mockery (and raised the existential question: If Donald Trump reads someone calling him an idiot on the internet, does he believe it?). But it’s actually worse than it seems. There’s plenty of good information on the internet. Trump has a repeated habit of choosing bad information, both on and offline.
I think Trump sweeps them all tonight except Ohio because Missouri is an open primary. Still makes it hard for him to win enough delegates…should be fun!
If the Democratic Party’s project is going to be building a “more responsible capitalism and a better and more ethical politics” (as it should be), the only way Clinton has any standing to undertake that project is to pick Sanders as a running mate.
Any other nods in the direction of un-rigging our rigged system would strike me as pure bullshit.
i have been monitoring/hate-listening susan monday on wdel. been hearing a lot of fascist farmers from downstate praise trump for being ready to kick some liberal ass. no attempt at reason, just hick resentment. monday just lets them go on and on. she herself doesn’t seem to have any politics — maybe that would require more hard thinking than she is capable of, or maybe she’s scared to express an opinion. anyway, you can now hear right-wingers praised both mornings and afternoons at wdel.
so please don’t stop letting wdel know how much they have screwed this up. not just because of the neanderthal politics, but also because the new show is so vapid.
Hillary is the best mainstream Republican in the race:
http://www.salon.com/2016/03/15/sorry_hillary_but_were_done_keep_repeating_racist_myths_and_praising_kissinger_and_the_reagans_im_switching_to_bernie_sanders/
The Sussex County brain trust forgot to renew their domain name again.
Fiscal responsibility at it’s finest.
http://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/politics/firststatepolitics/2016/03/15/gop-challenger-schwartzkopf-comes-forward/81803460/
This makes no sense. Why in the world would a Republican want to challenge Sneaky Pete?
Latest chapter in GOP Follies:
http://thinkprogress.org/politics/2016/03/15/3760261/carson-offered-position-by-trump/
I guess DeMartino is as good as Rick Perry at basic math: “The 58-year-old candidate, who also founded a Delaware nonprofit foundation that encourages youth to ride bikes, says his platform consists of three main priorities: Job creation and small business support, education and crime prevention.”
If my meager skills of addition are correct, that’s four priorities, not three.
Obama says no to drilling off Atlantic Coast.
Somewhere Carper is having a sad.
Most of the down staters who listen to WDEL or WGMD or really almost any talk radio for that matter are generally those who have an aversion to the written word.
We speak with more simplicity than we write. If you were to take a transcript of segment of talk radio (maybe on Monday’s 30 minutes) I would guess that it would hit a Gunning Fog Index of maybe 6 or 7 at best.
Not only do they lack the ability for critical thinking but the same applies to their ability for critical reading. Generally their MO is to find a bone grab the bone and don’t let go of the bone no matter.
This season the bone is immigration and of course there is always the “librul” bone. So yeah, it’s kind of the stereotypical older white farmer who has no need of books and such cause God gave him two good ears and they are WDELs target market. Not that I am stereotyping though.
So where does Delaware GOP leadership go if Kasich drops out?
https://www.johnkasich.com/endorsements/delaware-endorsements/
Is anyone live blogging the mayoral debate?
I read in Politico that Trump’s march toward the nomination has “top” conservative leaders planning to meet this week to discuss an independent run by a “real conservative.”
Ironically, as anybody associated with the Green or Libertarian Parties could tell them, it is highly unlikely at this point that they could get on the ballot in sufficient states to win. The Greens have, IIRC, ballot access in about 45 states, and the LP normally gets ballot access in 48 or 49 states, but in most states you have to do it by petition, and some of the major states’ deadlines for that are so very near as to make it almost impossible, because they’d have to create an umbrella party identity and gather tens if not hundreds of thousands of signatures, and the GOP would likely go to court to stop them as they did against the LP in PA, OH, MN and a few other places. They won’t make it onto the ballot in Oklahoma by any means, because OK law makes it virtually impossible for anybody but Ds or Rs to be on the ballot (high petition requirements and a requirement that both the signer of the petition and the person holding the petition must be permanent residents of the same city or county).
I’m just wondering why smart people like this haven’t realized that they can’t just snap their fingers and get on the ballot, or maybe the splinter GOP conservatives just plan to purchase the Libertarian Party outright for its ballot access.
Fear not, Steve, the Real Conservative will just show up at your Libertarian Party convention and run on your ticket.
You know, like they did with Bob Barr in ’08.
@SussexAnon I’m figuring that’s the plan. The only thing you got wrong is that the guys supporting Bob Barr in 2008 weren’t really conservatives. But they did make the point that you could purchase a small party pretty cheaply.
However, here’s the interesting part: ballot access (as a legal matter) belongs to the state parties, not the national party. While it didn’t happen in 2008 it actually could happen today, wherein state Libertarian Parties refuse to take the steps to place a candidate on the ballot that they don’t like.
Hmm. But it still comes down to the ultimate Libertarian paradox that has been hit on by Libertarians and others for a long time.
Which is:
If your key plank is to do away with government, how can you be trusted to govern?
But except for that odd twist, they do have so many good ideas.
We probably should have started on it earlier, but this season would have been the ideal one to float a new party, spawned of Libertarian philosophy, but practical enough to govern effectively and …. have a hook that will make America better economically, safer, and improve the quality of life of every citizen…
I’m thinking about a Libertarian Party clone that is realistic about progressive taxation… What say you, Steve? Is it remotely doable… Don’t answer right away, Ponder it for a while…. Then draft up a platform for an imaginary party… I think you’re the brightest guy to do it.
kavips, here’s the deal–I am no longer organizing political parties, and I have already said here publicly that as much as I do not prefer Hillary Clinton as President I will end up campaigning for her because Trumpism represents an existential threat to the American Republic.
“……I do not prefer Hillary Clinton as President I will end up campaigning for her……”
Ditto.
The Libertarian sold their soul to the devil with Barr. Don’t be surprised if they do it again. Unless they invoke the option to not put him on the ballot as you suggest. But power corrupts. Even in the Libertarian Party.