Florida—Monmouth–Trump 44, Rubio 27, Cruz 17, Kasich 9
Florida—Trafalgar Group–Trump 44, Rubio 24, Cruz 20, Kasich 9
Florida—ARG–Trump 49, Rubio 24, Cruz 16, Kasich 9
Florida—ARG–Clinton 58, Sanders 37
Ohio—Monmouth–Kasich 40, Trump 35, Cruz 15, Rubio 5
Ohio—Monmouth–Clinton 54, Sanders 40
Ohio—ARG–Kasich 44, Trump 38, Cruz 12, Rubio 2
Ohio—ARG–Clinton 52, Sanders 45
National—Economist/YouGov–Trump 53, Cruz 22, Kasich 11, Rubio 10
National—NBC News/Survey Monkey–Trump 44, Cruz 24, Kasich 12, Rubio 11
National—NBC News/Survey Monkey–Clinton 54, Sanders 41
National—Morning Consult–Clinton 48, Sanders 40
National—YouGov/Economist–Clinton 52, Sanders 40
Donald Trump unites the disparate Democratic coalition like no one else does.
In a hypothetical Clinton v. Trump contest in November, voters under 35 would choose Clinton by a crushing 52%-19%, a preference that crosses demographic lines. Among whites, she’d be backed by nearly 2-1, 45%-26%. Among Hispanics, by more than 4-1, 61%-14%. Among Asian Americans, by 5-1, 60%-11%. Among African Americans, by 13-1, 67%-5%.
It’s increasingly clear there are only three options left for Republicans in picking their presidential nominee: 1) Donald Trump becomes the party nominee by winning 1,237 delegates; 2) Ted Cruz becomes the party nominee through a contested convention; 3) Someone else is picked by a contested convention, bypassing the two largest delegate winners. All three are really bad options. […] It’s hard to see Republicans beating Hillary Clinton in a general election with any of these options. The odds would at least be heavily against them.
Does the GOP Primary end tonight or is it just beginning?
“The Republican presidential campaign will not end next week, or even next month. But voters in the five states casting ballots on Tuesday will go a long way toward determining whether Donald J. Trump can win the 1,237 delegates necessary to claim the party’s nomination,” the New York Times reports.
“If Mr. Trump loses Ohio (possible) or Florida (less likely) and wins less-than-commanding victories in Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina, he would face the strong possibility of falling short of a delegate majority and entering a contested Republican convention this summer. But with victories in the home states of two of his rivals, he could end the campaigns of Gov. John Kasich and Sen. Marco Rubio, leaving Sen. Ted Cruz as the only candidate still standing in his way.”
I think Cruz will win Illinois and Missouri, Trump will win Florida and North Carolina, and Kasich will win Ohio. Contested open convention here we come!
One thing that Hillary will do that Gore did not: have the popular incumbent President campaign for you everywhere. Obama is going to be fun on the campaign trail.
Eugene Robinson’s take on Trump’s campaign events and the protests:
The Constitution’s guarantee of free speech applies to everyone, Trumpistas and protesters alike. Trump said over the weekend that he wants demonstrators who gate-crash his rallies to be arrested, not just ejected; he vows that “we’re pressing charges” against them. Someone should educate him: Peacefully disapproving of a politician and his dangerous ideas is not a crime.
Trump seems not to understand that demonstrators have the legal right to protest — and that a candidate for president of the United States has no countervailing right not to be protested. I’m talking about nonviolent demonstrations, of course — but nonviolent does not necessarily mean quiet, timid or small.
At The New Yorker, Ryan Lizza ponders “The Great Divide: Clinton, Sanders, and the future of the Democratic Party.” Lizza quotes Simon Rosenberg, president anad founder of New Democratic network, who adds “Sanders is speaking to a rising generation who want both a better and more responsible capitalism and a better and more ethical politics…Unrigging the system will be a central focus of Democratic politics for years to come–as it should be.”
Hillary would crush Trump in a general election pic.twitter.com/ge2UPOVBte
— Political Line (@PoliticalLine) March 15, 2016
quote from NRO writer exposes contempt for poor whites among anti-Trump right-wing https://t.co/nq7YxanhTD pic.twitter.com/B8KLLHztdC
— HK (@HenryKrinkIe) March 15, 2016
I actually agree with most of this if you change the moniker to poor conservative whites. Those “real” muricans. They feel like they are superior to everyone. They are arrogant yet ignorant. They think foreign policy is a Rambo movie.
The Wall Street Journal has an outstanding delegate simulator to gauge how today’s races will impact the GOP presidential race.
Historian Douglas Brinkley told Yahoo News that Donald Trump is a lot like Richard Nixon.
Said Brinkley: “We keep thinking Reagan is the big conservative figure of our era, but Nixon was dominant in the Republican party. I see Trump learning all the tricks from Nixon — enemy lists, keeping track of who slights you, an immediate nuke-’em attitude.”
First Read: “When this presidential contest started a year ago, and when most of us thought Trump was unlikely to run, we identified three establishment frontrunners: Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, and Marco Rubio. Well, Walker ended his presidential bid two months after formally announcing. Bush, after spending some $82 million over the airwaves throughout the course of the contest, dropped out after finishing fourth in South Carolina. And unless the polling is really off in Florida, Rubio soon could end up exiting the GOP race, though he has been putting on a brave face.”
Caveat: “If Rubio suspends his campaign, many of his delegates would become free agents. So to keep them — and ensure they don’t go to Trump — he could stay in the race.”
Ezra Klein says Donald Trump is too gullible to be President:
On Sunday’s Meet the Press, moderator Chuck Todd pressed Donald Trump on falling for (yet another) internet hoax.
In this case, the hoax was that an Ohio protestor who rushed Trump’s stage over the weekend was tied to ISIS. Trump wasn’t just making this up — he was sent video of the protestor, Thomas DiMassimo, standing in front of the ISIS flag while Arabic music plays in the background.
But the video, which Trump retweeted, was doctored footage. This was pointed out immediately after Trump promoted the clip, but he didn’t seem to have noticed the corrections, or perhaps he didn’t care to notice them. But as his attempts to defend his tweet failed to persuade Todd, Trump finally cut to the epistemological core of his candidacy.
“All I know is what’s on the internet,” Trump said.
The comment launched much mockery (and raised the existential question: If Donald Trump reads someone calling him an idiot on the internet, does he believe it?). But it’s actually worse than it seems. There’s plenty of good information on the internet. Trump has a repeated habit of choosing bad information, both on and offline.