Saturday Open Thread [3.19.16]

National—Rasmussen –Trump 43, Cruz 28, Kasich 21
National—Reuters/Ipsos–Trump 50, Cruz 22, Kasich 12.
New York—Emerson–Trump 64, Cruz 12, Kasich 1
New York—Emerson–Clinton 71, Sanders 23

Note to MoveOn anti-free speech thugs: Our side has guns, tens of millions of them. Behave yourselves. #tcot

— Matthew Vadum (@vadum) March 16, 2016

Start arming yourselves, liberals.

The Cook Political Report says the House is in play: “So many assumptions have been wrong this cycle that it’s difficult to be definitive about another: that the House majority won’t be in play in 2016.”

“Republicans are sitting on their largest majority since 1928 – 247 seats to 188 – meaning Democrats would need to pick up 30 seats, a daunting challenge given the GOP’s immense redistricting advantage and the vaporization of swing districts. But all cycle, Democrats have daydreamed about Republicans nominating an extremely polarizing presidential candidate, and suddenly it’s almost certain they will get their wish.”

Matt Yglesias agrees:

To see why a Democratic majority suddenly seems possible, just read Andrew Prokop’s pre-Trump explanation of why it seemed so unlikely:

Democrats currently need to pick up 30 seats to retake the House. The last time an incumbent president’s party did that was 1964, when Lyndon B. Johnson won a 23-point victory over Barry Goldwater and Democrats romped nationwide to a 37-seat pickup.

An incumbent president’s party has not come even close to that since. Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan each won 49 states in their landslide reelections of 1972 and 1984, but they only picked up 13 and 16 seats in the House, respectively. And landslides like those are all but inconceivable today in our increasingly polarized politics. When presidential elections are closer, the makeup of the House tends not to change very much.

Democrats couldn’t win a House majority because the only way to generate a wave election under normal circumstances is as a backlash against an unpopular incumbent president. The exception that proved the rule was 1964, when Republicans nominated an extremely unpopular candidate who deeply divided their party.

That’s a crazy thing to do, so most analysts simply assumed it wouldn’t happen. And yet it’s happening!

All ten of their ratings changes in specific House races yesterday went to the Democrats’ favor.

Steve Benen reminds us that in this election we’ll see something that we haven’t witnessed in a very long time: a POTUS who is very active on the campaign trail. In case you’ve forgotten why that hasn’t been the case for a while, here’s a bit of history:

In 2008, then-President George W. Bush was deeply unpopular; John McCain went out of his way to downplay any connections with the incumbent of his party; and Republicans in general urged Bush to effectively hide as much as humanly possible.

In 2000, then-President Bill Clinton was extremely popular, but Al Gore was eager to break free of Clinton’s shadow. The sitting vice president generally asked Clinton to stand aside, which he did.

In 1988, then-President Ronald Reagan was relatively popular, despite being tarnished by the Iran-Contra scandal the year before, but health issues made it difficult for the Republican icon to campaign aggressively in support of then-Vice President George H.W. Bush. Reagan delivered a notable convention speech, but was not a prominent voice on the campaign trail.

In 1976, former President Richard Nixon was considered a national disgrace. At his party’s insistence, he made no campaign appearances.

In 1968, then-President Lyndon Johnson supported Hubert Humphrey, but generally in a behind-the-scenes capacity.

I also don’t recall Eisenhower campaigning for Nixon. In fact, Eisenhower was rather disparaging of his Vice President, saying, when reporters asked of his Vice President’s accomplishments, that if the reporters give him a minute he guesses he’ll think of something. Truman was deeply unpopular in 1952, so no campaigning for Stevenson. Wilson had a stroke and couldn’t campaign for Davis. Yeah, so it’s been over a century at least since we had a popular and active President who wants to actively campaign for his successor.

National Journal: “For all the many com­plic­a­tions a con­tested con­ven­tion could cause for the Re­pub­lic­an Party, it would cre­ate a very spe­cif­ic quandary for the pres­id­en­tial can­did­ates—how to pick a run­ning mate. If Don­ald Trump, Ted Cruz, or John Kasich se­lect a vice pres­id­ent be­fore the GOP gath­ers in Clev­e­land, they lose the abil­ity to use the post as a bar­gain­ing chip to se­cure the nom­in­a­tion. But if they wait un­til the con­ven­tion is un­der­way, they risk mak­ing a hasty—and po­ten­tially un­vet­ted—pick.”

NBC News says the RNC Rules Committee holds all the power over the convention: “After all the campaigning, debates and primaries, the GOP’s presidential nomination could hinge on what these insiders decide. The RNC Rules Committee decides party regulations and writes the first draft of convention rules, which are finalized by a convention rules committee and submitted to a floor vote.”

“Those rules are crucial. They decide which candidates are on the ballot: They could pass a rule allowing only Donald Trump to run in Cleveland, or a rule enabling new candidates to challenge him. They can decide how delegates vote — and when delegates can switch teams to support rival candidates. These are the kind of restrictions that could make the difference between a coronation or chaos in Cleveland.”

New data from Seattle, Los Angeles, and other cities that raised their minimum wage recently show little to no negative effects on hiring after those wages went up.

Racist conservatives have not changed at all. This reads like a Trump Manifesto.

This is the greatest story ever told:

The year was 1989. The band was the Rolling Stones. Tattoo You, their last great album, was eight years in the rearview mirror, but we will not hold that against them right now. The location: Atlantic City. The band is playing a blowout show to close its Steel Wheels tour, and it needs a promoter. Enter Donald Trump, owner of the Trump Plaza Hotel and Casino. […]

According to [Michael] Cohl, [the Stones’ tour producer,] the band hated Trump, and he was brought on only under a series of strict conditions including that he not actually attend the concert or give one of the self-aggrandizing press conferences he’s so fond of giving. The night of the show, lo and behold, Donald Trump is giving a press conference in the very same room where the Stones are supposed to be doing a TV interview. I’ll let Cohl take it from here:

I give him the [come here gesture]. “Come on, Donald, what are you doing? A) You promised us you wouldn’t even be here and, B) you promised you would never do this.” He says, “But they begged me to go up, Michael! They begged me to go up!” I say, “Stop it. Stop it. This could be crazy. Do what you said you would. Don’t make a liar of yourself.”

I go back to the dressing room. Five minutes later, he’s back up. They call me back over there. Holy shit. I call him out (again). Same thing happens. I say, “Donald. I don’t know if I can control this. Stop it.” I go back to the dressing room. And I leave my walkie-talkie on in the dressing room. Moronic, on my part.

They call me back, at which point Keith pulls out his knife and slams it on the table and says, “What the hell do I have you for? Do I have to go over there and fire him myself? One of us is leaving the building – either him, or us.” I said, “No. I’ll go do it. Don’t you worry.”

Cohl then gave Trump an ultimatum. You leave the building now, or we cancel the show. Trump went “berserk,” Cohl said, and then he left.

If Richards had done us all a favor then and killed Trump. Alas…

This is a good start to the united Democratic anti-Trump campaign, from the DSCC:

This week, the DSCC launched the “Party of Trump” campaign, a sustained campaign that will feature spending across platforms including television, radio, online, Twitter and Facebook, as well as up to the minute “Party of Trump” news alerts, highlighting Republicans’ continued support of Donald Trump as the nominee. With another big round of victories on Tuesday, Trump is even closer to becoming the Republicans’ nominee. Republican Senate incumbents and candidates are to blame for the rise of this toxic, divisive element that has overtaken their party, and they’ve all pledged to support Trump as the nominee. The DSCC’s “Party of Trump” campaign will remind voters that Republican Senate candidates are running in lockstep with Trump and his toxic rhetoric.