WISCONSIN—Marquette–Cruz 40, Trump 30, Kasich 21
WISCONSIN—Marquette–Sanders 49, Clinton 45
NEW YORK—Quinnipiac–Trump 56, Cruz 20, Kasich 19
NEW YORK—Quinnipiac–Clinton 54, Sanders 42
NEW YORK—Quinnipiac–Clinton 53, Trump 33 | Clinton 53, Cruz 32
Gallup finds an enthusiasm gap in the Democratic Party. One candidate does 10 points worse than the other when their supporters are asked if they are enthusiastic to vote for him or her. But it is not who you think.
One of the things Bernie Sanders supporters say to boost their candidate’s chances is that Bernie has more enthusiasm and momentum on his side, while voters are just “meh” about Hillary. That talking point just died.
David Atkins talks about the possibility of some Republican voters staying home if their nominee is Trump or Cruz:
Even a modest drop in turnout by the GOP in blue states and districts could lead to a downballot debacle for the Republican Party, and could even cost them the majority in the House given a big enough wave. The Cook Political Report and other prognosticators have revised their house race projections to account for the Trump effect (and quite possibly for the Cruz effect as well.)
So far, the GOP has latched itself to the hope that even if it must throw away the presidency this cycle, it can count on control of the House, the Supreme Court and most legislatures. With Scalia’s passing the Supreme Court is lost given a Democratic win in 2016, the Senate will likely change hands, and their House majority seems set to shrink or even disappear. Many legislatures may also flip as well given a wave election.
Things can change, of course: an economic downturn or major terrorist attack could alter the landscape significantly. But as things stand, circumstances are ripe for a GOP debacle up and down the ballot.
Domenico Montanaro explains how much Sanders has accomplished:
What Sanders has done, coming from virtually nowhere, is remarkable and has had an effect on Clinton. She would have preferred to focus on Republicans and likely moderate her message and tone to appeal to the middle. Instead, she’s had to look left.
What Sanders has done not only likely guarantees him a prominent slot at the convention, but ensures his message, and the issues he cares about deeply, a place at the Democratic table.
Rick Klein: “Donald Trump said Tuesday night that a reporter’s pen might have been a ‘little bomb.’ That has nothing on what came out of Trump’s mouth in the CNN forum, where he renounced the famous pledge to support the GOP nominee, and proceeded to make conservative jaw drops with his answers to policy questions. Trump named education and healthcare as two of the top three functions of the federal government, and seemed to endorse the idea of Japan, South Korea, and Saudi Arabia getting nuclear weapons. That doesn’t even get into the Corey Lewandowski incident, where Trump is now threatening legal action against reporter Michelle Fields, despite the criminal charges filed against his campaign manager.”
“It’s now more clear than ever that if Trump wins the Republican nomination, he won’t do it as a conservative in any traditional sense of the word, or as a candidate who fits any norm in American politics. Maybe that’s the secret to his success. But if Trump wins Wisconsin next week despite all of this – or even because of it – will a plausible path to blocking Trump continue to exist? This could be the showdown all sides have been waiting for.”
First Read: “Once again, it was a roller-coaster of a 24-hour news cycle with yesterday’s arrest of Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski. Here’s one piece of this story that really struck us, though: Not only has Trump stood by – and vehemently defended – an aide now charged with battery, but Trump has essentially tried to turn it into an illustration of why he’d be a good leader.”
Said Trump: “I don’t discard people. I stay with people, that’s why I stay with this country. That’s why I stay with a lot of people that are treated unfairly. And that’s one of the reasons I’m the frontrunner by a lot.”
“Setting aside the fact that he has in fact ended his relationship with two aides in this campaign already – Roger Stone and Sam Nunberg – AND setting aside the fact that much of his fame is derived from a show featuring the catchphrase ‘You’re Fired’ – it’s really a remarkable way to approach an incident that in any other campaign would be an unquestionable liability.”
The GOP Loyalty Oath is dead.
This has profound implications for the process going forward. Barring the oft-predicted but never realized collapse of Trump’s popularity, he will go into the convention with more pledged delegates and votes than any other individual candidate. But if he has not secured a majority of all delegates, the convention’s rules would allow the GOP to nominate someone who isn’t reviled by three out of four American women. Trump has already suggested that such a move would be illegitimate — so illegitimate, it would provoke riots from his hordes of aggrieved supporters. Now he seems to have made that stance official.
Former Trump strategist Stephanie Cegielski writes about why she left the campaign: “I don’t think even Trump thought he would get this far. And I don’t even know that he wanted to, which is perhaps the scariest prospect of all. He certainly was never prepared or equipped to go all the way to the White House, but his ego has now taken over the driver’s seat, and nothing else matters.” She adds: “Trump acts as if he’s a fictional character. But like Hercules, Donald Trump is a work of fiction.”
Dara Lind says Donald Trump’s fragile ego would make him a terrible President.
Trump has a characterological inability to let go of a perceived slight or back down from a fight — even when it’s clear he’s in the wrong, and, more importantly, even when it’s clear that rationally he has more to lose by staying in than he would by getting out.
That trait (which is replicated in Trump’s campaign and hangers-on) is what turned Lewandowski’s grabbing of Breitbart reporter Michelle Fields from a brief, single-news-cycle outrage to the subject of a criminal prosecution
It is, to say the least, not a great attribute to have in a presidential candidate or a likely major-party nominee. Or, for that matter, a president.
Team Trump's handling of the Fields incident is basically a blueprint for turning a minor airspace issue w/China into thermonuclear war.
— Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) March 29, 2016