Archive for March, 2016
Popping the GOP dis-reality bubble one gin and tonic at a time
This David Brooks editorial in the New York Times is getting some play because it is rather shocking that: 1) a DC beltway conservative admitted that he was wrong about something, 2) admitted that he sucks at his job, and 3) allowed that “accuracy” was a thing that ought to be pursued by journalists. In […]
Sunday Open Thread [3.20.16]
In 1980, Ronald Reagan won 56 percent of white voters and won a landslide victory of 44 states. In 2012, Mitt Romney won 59 percent of whites and lost with 24 states. But it’s a frequent talking point that white voter enthusiasm was higher for Reagan and turnout down for Romney. Not so. In 1980, 59 percent of whites voted and in 2012, 64 percent of whites voted.
But still the myth survives that there are these masses of untapped white voters just waiting for the right candidate. Call it the Lost Tribes of the Amazon theory: If only you paddle far enough up the river and bang the drum loud enough, these previously hidden voters will gather to the river’s edge. The simple truth is that there simply aren’t enough white voters in the America of 2016 to win a national election without also getting a substantial share of the non-white vote. Romney won 17 percent of the non-white vote. Depending on white voter turnout, a Republican needs between 25 percent and 35 percent of the non-white vote to win.
A recent poll put Trump’s support among whites at 49%, while only 19% among non-whites. If that holds, not only will Trump not win like Romney, it will be a worse loss. States that Romney won, like Indiana and North Carolina and Missouri, would be won by Clinton. Further, given the nature of the racist, bigoted and fascist Trump, he will spike turnout among nonwhites and Democrats of all races. That’s where we get into landslide terrority, with Clinton winning Arizona and Texas, maybe even Arkansas and Mississippi. Don’t believe me? Play with RCP’s Demographic turnout tool. I did, giving Trump 49% of the white vote, reducing his Latino vote to 20% while keeping their turnout percentage at 2012 levels, which is all generous to Trump. And this is the landslide for Hillary it produces:
Saturday Open Thread [3.19.16]
![Saturday Open Thread [3.19.16]](http://delawareliberal.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/White.Open_.Thread-240x180.png "Saturday Open Thread [3.19.16]")
The Cook Political Report says the House is in play: “So many assumptions have been wrong this cycle that it’s difficult to be definitive about another: that the House majority won’t be in play in 2016.”
“Republicans are sitting on their largest majority since 1928 – 247 seats to 188 – meaning Democrats would need to pick up 30 seats, a daunting challenge given the GOP’s immense redistricting advantage and the vaporization of swing districts. But all cycle, Democrats have daydreamed about Republicans nominating an extremely polarizing presidential candidate, and suddenly it’s almost certain they will get their wish.”
The Weekly Addresses
In this week’s address, the President discussed his decision to nominate Chief Judge Merrick Garland to the Supreme Court of the United States.
In his weekly message, Governor Markell highlights the success of Delaware’s Downtown Development District grant program in driving significant private investment in the state’s urban centers.
Charlie Copeland keeps threatening to move out of Delaware. Why doesn’t he?
In this week’s GOP address Deborah Hudson acts like it would be a bad thing if Charlie Copeland up and left.
Delaware Political Weekly: March 11-17, 2016.
The more I think about it, the more I’m impressed with the kickoff to Matt Meyer’s campaign for County Executive. It’s as if the campaign emerged fully-formed out of nowhere. I’m sure a lot of people worked on preparing this, but I hadn’t heard even a hint about his candidacy until yesterday. Perhaps, as an attorney, he didn’t want to give Gordon the chance to threaten his employer until he was already in. The ad is brilliant, effectively lays out his message. My favorite bit: “Your search found 1 result”. And his bio is compelling. Especially the stuff about Ecosandals:
Matt chose to move to Nairobi, Kenya, where he taught himself Swahili and started Ecosandals, a footwear business he created that has sold environmentally-friendly footwear to customers on 17 countries in 5 continents for over two decades.
Numerous groups and organizations have recognized Ecosandals’ work in creating innovative job opportunities in neighborhoods facing extreme poverty. Those groups include CNN, the United Nations, the World Bank, BBC, Al Jazeera and Current TV, which on national TV called Matt an all-around super human. Ecosandals continues to create employment opportunities in neighborhoods of Nairobi, Kenya where residents are desperate for meaningful work.
Think about it: Tom Gordon or Matt Meyer…gotta ask my wife if we can send Matt a few bucks. Besides, Friends grad and a math teacher? Hey, that’s my daughter’s bio!
BTW, Tom Gordon filed yesterday, so the game is on.
Friday Open Thread [3.18.16]
![Friday Open Thread [3.18.16]](http://delawareliberal.net/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Inverse.Gray_.Open_.Thread-240x180.png "Friday Open Thread [3.18.16]")
Hans Noel on why some conservatives want to stop Donald Trump at all costs:
Some conservative Republicans are meeting this week to talk about the possibility of fielding a conservative third-party candidate in the increasingly likely event that Donald Trump hijacks their party’s nomination. Trump is not only not a conservative; he also embraces the most distasteful elements of right-wing populism. An independent candidate would give voters a “real” Republican to vote for.
Such a move has an obvious downside: It likely leads to President Hillary Clinton. Trump and the “real” Republican will split the Republican vote, just as William H. Taft and Theodore Roosevelt split the GOP vote in 1912, giving us President Woodrow Wilson. Is blocking Trump worth the risk of electing Clinton?
If you are a conservative, I think it is.
Presidential elections are unpredictable, but there is one pretty common pattern. The longer the party has been in office, the less likely it is to win. One-term incumbents are reelected at a high rate, but after two terms the office often goes to the other party. After three terms, it’s very hard to hold on to the White House.
Assuming this pattern holds, if Trump wins the 2016 presidential election, he’s likely to win reelection. But the Democrats would likely win in 2024 and again in 2028. You wouldn’t see a “real” Republican in the White House until 2032, after a 24-year drought.
The obvious flaw in this logic is that Democrats, liberals and non-Trumpian conservatives will have been “final solution”-ed by 2019, and Dear Leader Trump will be running unopposed for his fifth term in 2032.
Carper’s “Political Offspring” Featured in Celia’s Latest Tickle-fest
There are tons of giggles in this classic of the Celia Cohen genre.
Here are a few samples:
“It’s like asking you to choose between your three favorite children (Barney,Rochester, Short). They’re not children. They’re wonderful adults….”
..but, seriously, don’t ever forget who’s your daddy.
“Pull for the home team. We’re all part of Carper town,” Carper said.
I feel like Carper resisted throwing in a wink at EL Somnambulo here and when he said “Carper Town” instead of Carperdyne Industries, Inc.
“You know sometimes, like people try to vote more than once? I think in this case I’d like to vote at least three times. I’d get in trouble doing that,” Carper said.
Stop. my sides….
As for me, I’m all about…
Oh Thank God. Someone is challenging Gordon. Everyone vote for Matt Meyer
A Wilmington attorney who has served as an economic advisor to the U.S. State Department and Gov. Jack Markell is running for New Castle County Executive this fall, setting up a primary challenge for incumbent Tom Gordon.
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