Over the weekend is dawned on a lot of people that Donald Trump is in deep trouble unless he gets to the Republican National Convention with the nomination sewed up. Why is that? Well, take Delaware’s 16 delegates as an example.
Say Trump “wins” in the Delaware primary on April 26th. Delaware is a “winner take all” primary, so all of Delaware’s 16 delegates will be honor bound to vote for Trump on the first ballot. If Trump fails to secure the nomination on the first ballot, they’ll re-poll the delegation and ZERO of Delaware’s 16 delegates will vote for Trump.
How can I be so sure of the wholesale flip? Easy. Trump has no ground game. While Trump may have the name recognition to “win” on primary day, those 16 “Trump” delegates are going to be appointed by the DEGOP. So, the Delaware delegation is going to be comprised of people like Mike Castle, Charlie Copeland, Dave Burris, and Ken Simpler. Do you think any of those guys are going to vote for Trump on the second ballot? I don’t. My guess is that Kasich will get 15 of Delaware’s 16 votes in round 2.
Now picture the same thing happening in delegations all over the country. The primary voters said “Trump” but the party stalwarts serving as delegates are going to the convention knowing that they only need to be “faithful” for one round of voting. After that, all bets are off. None of the Republican functionaries and lifers are going to be fighting for Trump to be the nominee. Ultimately, the people who installed Romney will restore the natural order and nominate in someone who isn’t a belligerent nut job.