Delaware Liberal

Wednesday Open Thread [4.6.16]

Delaware Dem

PENNSYLVANIA—Harper–Clinton 55, Sanders 33
PENNSYLVANIA–U.S. SENATE—Harper–Sestak 41, McGinty 31, Fetterman 9
MARYLAND–U.S. SENATE—Wash Post/Univ. of Maryland–Edwards 44, Van Hollen 40
PENNSYLVANIA—Quinnipiac–Trump 39, Cruz 30, Kasich 24
PENNSYLVANIA—Quinnipiac–Clinton 50, Sanders 44

Bernie won Wisconsin last night as expected, but by not as healthy margin as he needs. Don’t get me wrong, a 56-43 result, and thus a 13 point win is great, and it keeps him going. But in terms of making up delegate ground, it doesn’t move the needle that much. As you can see, he wins 45 delegates to Clinton’s 36, a net gain of 9 delegates. Clinton now leads Sanders 1280 to 1025, a difference of 255 still. If Bernie had won 70-30 say, he would have won 57 delegates to Clinton’s 24, a net gain of 25 delegates.

And now the roads gets tougher for Bernie. New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Connecticut, Rhode Island. To put himself on target of winning the nomination, Bernie must sweep all of these states by the 70-30 margin I talked about.

A Bernie campaign talking point is that they have now 6 states in a row (and it will be 7 after they win the Wyoming caucus on Saturday), and how great and unprecedented that is for a frontrunner like Clinton to lose states late in the process. You know, I am constantly amazed at how horrible people’s memories are. I mean, I can’t be that much smarter than everyone, right? 😉 For example, I got into a Facebook comment war yesterday with a gentlemen who INSISTED to his dying breath that President Clinton never went through an impeachment trial. I mean, he had to have lived through that, right? How could he not remember the Impeachment trial in the Senate in the winter of 1999?? Anywho…

Let’s flash back to 2008, shall we?

Notice that Hillary Clinton, then in the Bernie Sanders role, won plenty of contests down the stretch. Big important contests too. Ohio. Texas. Pennsylvania. She won 9 out of the last 15 contests. But it didn’t matter, because 1) she was only winning those states by margins that did not garner her enough delegates to catch up because 2) Obama had won a string of states in February by huge margins that gave him an insurmountable delegate lead.

It is amazing and ironic that history is repeating itself again, but this time Hillary is Obama and Sanders is Hillary. I will also point out that the final pledged delegate tally for 2007 was 1766.5 for Obama and 1639.5 for Hillary, a margin of 127. A much closer result that our current reality.

Bernie Sanders does have momentum. But that momentum is about to hit the buzz saw that is the New York primary. Mr. Sanders did not impress New Yorkers with his interview with the New York Daily News Editorial Board, where he failed to offer specifics on his plans or display knowledge of the actual subject matter of the issues facing our nation.

This is the NY Daily News cover page today:

While Wisconsin wasn’t really game-changing for the Democrats, it might be for the Republicans. Nate Silver says Cruz’s win hurts Trump:

“Clearly tonight’s results were problematic for Trump in terms of his delegate math. A few weeks ago, we’d projected Trump to win 25 delegates in Wisconsin. It looks like he’ll only get 3 to 6 instead. After also accounting for Trump’s failure to get any delegates in Utah last month, our estimate would now project him to get 1,179 to 1,182 delegates total, or somewhere between 55 and 58 short of the 1,237 he’d need to clinch the nomination. Trump could potentially make up the difference by persuading uncommitted delegates to vote for him, although given how poorly Trump’s doing in the delegate-wrangling business, that might not be easy.”

“But the more immediate question — the one I’m not quite ready to answer — is what tonight tells us about how Trump might perform in subsequent states.”

AP’s Chad Day and Emily Swanson share some results from AP/Edison Research exit polling in Wisconsin:

On the Democratic side, voters chose Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who they saw as the more exciting, inspiring and honest candidate, according to early results of exit polls conducted for The Associated Press and television networks by Edison Research…But even then, more voters view former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as the candidate most likely to beat Trump, who has been the Republican front-runner throughout the primaries.

…Nearly 60 percent say Sanders inspires them more about the future of the country…Democratic voters were more likely to describe Sanders than Clinton as honest. About nine in 10 say so of Sanders, while about 6 in 10 say so of Clinton… But more than half also say Clinton is the candidate best suited to beat Trump. Three-quarters say Clinton has realistic policies, more than the two-thirds who say that of Sanders.

Dan Balz says the GOP race moves to the Trench Warfare phase: “After Sen. Ted Cruz’s big victory in the Wisconsin primary, Republicans enter a new and critical phase in their volatile nomination battle, with Donald Trump’s rivals and those in the party establishment who are determined to stop him sharing a single objective: to keep the GOP front-runner as far short of a first-ballot convention victory as possible.”

“The Wisconsin race represents a potentially important turning point in the Republican contest, one that will embolden Trump’s opponents. A contested convention has become more probable. Whether that comes to pass will be determined by what takes place in the trench warfare that will play out over the next three months.”

That trench warfare being rules debates for the convention, and the actual selection of delegate slates, which a more organized campaign like Cruz can take advantage of and install his supporters as Trump delegates who will defect to him on the second ballot.

The Daily Show with Trevor Noah
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“Donald Trump’s campaign is facing new internal discord over who is advising the candidate and whether his current team must expand if he is to make good on his quest for his party’s presidential nomination,” sources within the team told NBC News.

“The dissent comes at a pivotal moment for a campaign team coming off a significant loss in Wisconsin. It has maintained a slender footprint even as Trump has soared in the polls and outpaced his Republican competitors in primary races. But after several tough weeks, peppered by charges against Trump’s campaign manager for misdemeanor battery, and then comments from the candidate that infuriated all sides of the abortion debate, some within the Trump team said it was time for changes.”

Excellent. I love campaign in disarray stories when they are not about Democrats.

The New York Times has some great interactive graphics on what voters want on sides of the aisle:

Mrs. Clinton does best with voters who want the next president to continue President Obama’s policies, while Mr. Sanders is favored by people who think the next president should be more liberal than Mr. Obama has been.

Taegan Goddard:

A reader shoots down the theory that Bernie Sanders is hampered by the Democratic party’s proportional award of delegates. While it’s true that the current rules make it harder for Sanders to catch Hillary Clinton, her lead would actually be much greater if there was a winner-take-all system.

In fact, simple math suggests Clinton would actually have about 300 more delegates now if the primaries and caucuses were winner-take-all. That means Clinton would be position to wrap up the nomination in just a few weeks.

Instead, the Democratic primary is likely to grind on until June even though Sanders can’t win.

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