NATIONAL—FOX News–Trump 45, Cruz 27, Kasich 25
NATIONAL—FOX News–Clinton 48, Sanders 46
NATIONAL—CBS News–Trump 42, Cruz 29, Kasich 18
NATIONAL—CBS News–Clinton 50, Sanders 44
NEW YORK—Optimus Consulting–Trump 49, Kasich 23, Cruz 14
NEW YORK—NBC 4 NY/WSJ/Marist–Clinton 57, Sanders 40
NATIONAL—Fox News–Clinton 48, Trump 41 | Clinton 45, Cruz 44 | Sanders 53, Trump 39 | Sanders 51, Cruz 39
NATIONAL—CBS News–Clinton 50, Trump 40 | Clinton 45, Cruz 42 | Sanders 53, Trump 36 | Sanders 50, Cruz 38
PENNSYLVANIA—Monmouth–Trump 44, Cruz 28, Kasich 23
Nothing has pissed me off more this primary season than the dismissal of Southern Democratic primary voters.
“Well, you know,” [Bernie] Sanders said, “people say, ‘Why does Iowa go first, why does New Hampshire go first,’ but I think that having so many Southern states go first kind of distorts reality as well.”
When Sanders partisans first began dismissing those states, one could argue that they did so out of ignorance, not understanding that it wasn’t conservatives voting in those primaries, but some of our most liberal, most committed constituencies—Latinos and African Americans. But this far into the primary season, it’s not so easy anymore to explain away those bullshit claims after repeated efforts to correct the record. And of course, this isn’t coming from a random supporter on the internet, or even his campaign team. It’s coming from Bernie Sanders himself.
So let me ask this as explicitly as I can: how does a bunch of African American and Latinos voting “distort reality”? Demographically, America isn’t Vermont. This primary battle is being waged in the reality that is modern-day America. So exactly how did those black and Latino voters “distort reality”?
Now, there are plenty of ways Sanders could talk about his demographic challenges without coming across as a dick. He could talk about how he started off poorly with those groups, but he’s made inroads over time (debatable, but whatever). He could pivot to how much better he did among youth and independents, and talk about his accomplishments, rather than diminish those who aren’t already with him.
Bernie did it again last night, suggesting the Southern Democratic electorate is conservative. That will be news to them. If Bernie wants to try to win in November without the black vote he is so intent on dismissing, he is delusional. Not that he will ever get that chance, though.
Josh Marshall: “What’s Bernie Sanders’ endgame here exactly? […] This primal scream phase of Sanders campaign reminds me of Barney Frank’s critique of Sanders as someone who spent all his time critiquing the inevitable compromises that go into actual passing laws rather than actually putting his shoulder on the back of the car and helping push.”
Well, he is a purist, after all.
Old Guy Who Yells A Lot Sick Of Listening To Old Guy Who Yells A Lot
— John Dingell (@JohnDingell) April 15, 2016
This to me summarizes the entire debate, all the debates, and the entire Democratic primary campaign so far.
Bernie: Here is the problem, in simplified terms.
Hillary: Here are the solutions, in comprehensive terms. #DemDebate
— Victor Ng (@victomato) April 15, 2016
Personally, I didn’t enjoy last night’s debate at all, and it had nothing to do with the candidates. It was the crowd. Whether it was Hillary partisans, New York partisans or Bernie partisans, the screaming, cheering, shouting, chanting, all of which was sustained for too long, forced the candidates, on each side, into awkward waiting periods until the crowd decided to quiet down and listen, or it forced the candidates into screaming at each other, over each other, and through the crowd noise.
Evan McMorris-Santoro and Ruby Cramer at Buzzfeed said last night’s debate came down to three minutes:
That was the amount of time it took on Thursday, from 9:15 to 9:18 p.m., for Sanders to try and seemingly fail to make the central case of the sharper-elbowed campaign he’s run ahead of the New York primary: that Clinton’s ties to Wall Street have made and would make her a shill for the billionaire class. On the trail, Sanders raises questions about Clinton’s character and her commitment to the cause of income inequality in connection to paid speeches she’s given to financial firms.
But asked to name one decision by Clinton that shows she favored Wall Street as a result of money she’s received, Sanders struggled to provide an example beyond arguing that the former senator should have moved to break up the big banks.
“Sure, sure. The obvious decision is when the greed and recklessness and illegal behavior of Wall Street,” said Sanders, “the obvious response to that is that you’ve got a bunch of fraudulent operators and that they have got to be broken up.”
Clinton, he added, “was busy giving speeches to Goldman Sachs for $225,000.”
“Well, you can tell, Dana,” Clinton replied, addressing CNN moderator Dana Bash, “he cannot come up with any example, because there is no example.”
To me it was a telling moment. What Bernie, his campaign and his supporters have been doing for a year is lying about Hillary Clinton, saying she takes bribes and is corrupt. But either he could not repeat the charge to her face with an example of the criminal activity, which proves he is a coward, or there is no evidence of his allegations, which proves he is a liar. Which is it Bernie?
Speaking of which, it’s hard to judge whether the back-and-forth between the two candidates about what their campaigns represent — delivered amidst a return to the horrid shrieking and chanting from the audience — will matter in the long run. Sanders seems to be trying out an argument that Clinton’s nomination-contest victories are irrelevant because they happened at the wrong time (early in the process), the wrong place (the South), or with the wrong supporters (old Democrats rather than young independents).
If he goes over the brink into a claim that a pledged-delegate victory by Clinton is illegitimate, the Democratic convention could be nearly as divisive as the Republican confab looks sure to become. After tonight, the superior unity of Democrats is at least partially in question for the first time.
Ed, remember that the wrong supporters in Bernie’s mind are not just Old Democrats, it’s also African Americans and Latinos. Their votes don’t matter because they are not northern white progressive men.
I just don’t get this strategy of arguing primary victories and thus pledged delegate leads are not legitimate. If he tries a floor flight at the convention, he will lose and alienate all those he seeks to alienate (shockingly). And even if through some criminal trickery he does get the nomination somehow by disqualifying African American delegates from the South, those he sought to alienate will not be there for him in the fall. I certainly won’t be if he tries to win that way.
There was nothing in this debate that shifted the dynamic of the New York primary. Sanders needed to appeal to Democratic primary voters, but his answers remained tailored for Independents. Bernie Sanders didn’t have a bad debate, but his performance was just like all of his previous performances. Sen. Sanders drew groans from the crowd when he said that he would withdraw the nomination of President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee, and it is unclear how his answer will play with Democratic voter in the closed primaries. Sanders was more confrontational, but being more aggressive while offering many of the same answers that he has been using for months likely wasn’t enough to cut into Hillary Clinton’s double-digit New York lead.
Yeah, attacking the President last night ahead of a closed Democratic primary was an interesting choice.
The problem for Sanders is that momentum doesn’t count unless you can translate it into the currency of presidential nominating races: delegates. As such, Thursday’s debate was aimed almost entirely at next Tuesday’s primary in New York, the second-biggest pot of delegates, after California. Both campaigns have put all their chips on New York, Clinton to arrest Sanders’ momentum and Sanders, down by at least 10 points in most polls, to try to score a Michigan-like upset that would finally cut into Clinton’s delegate lead and raise real doubts about her electoral prospects with Democratic Party power players.
Clinton and Sanders had debated eight times before Thursday’s face-off in Brooklyn. This one was different. With so much at stake, maybe it was inevitable that Thursday’s debate would have a lot more sharp elbows. But for anyone pleased that the Democratic primary hasn’t descended into the gutter fight between the “professional wrestlers emerging from the RNC’s clown car,” as New York’s Rebecca Traister put it, well, the change wasn’t a good one. (“Oh my god make it stop,” Traitor pleaded.)
Probably the most replayed moment of the night, because it summed up the tone so well, was Wolf Blitzer’s plea to the two candidates in the middle of a heated discussion over the minimum wage: “If you’re both screaming at each other, the viewers won’t be able to hear either of you.”