Trump General Election Campaign Themes Succinctly Revealed
I put this speech (?) up yesterday because* having watched it live, I knew that it succinctly revealed the campaign themes he was planning on rolling out against Clinton. And when I say succinct, I mean succinct. At times my explanation of the theme is longer that Trump’s own expression of it.
So, here they are:
1) Donald Trump is a great business man who can make deals and reverse the pernicious effects of the terrible free trade deals the Democrats have passed over the past 30 years.
We are going to use our great business people to negotiate unbelievable trade deals, so we bring our jobs back, and we don’t let our companies go to Mexico and all of these other countries anymore. We are going to keep the jobs here. You are going to be very proud of this country very soon.
2) Donald Trump’s great business mind is also going to be turned to rebuilding the military, which will have two main benefits: a) the military will be “great” which is a virtue in its own right, and b) our foreign policy entanglements will be reduced because the world will once again tremble in fear of our great military.
We are going to build our military. Bigger, better stronger than ever before. (applause) Nobody is going to mess with us. That I can tell you.
3) The RIGHT people [and not the wrong people] are going to get welfare.
We are going to take care of our Vets. Our Vets are great people. And we have forgotten our Vets. Illegal immigrants are taken better care of, in many cases, better than our Vets. That’s not gonna happen anymore. That is not going to happen.
4) Expensive, unworkable bureaucratic nonsense beloved by Democrats is going to be shit canned.
We are getting rid of Obamacare. It’s going to be repealed and replaced. It is a total disaster. With premiums going up 35, 45, FIFTY FIVE percent. It is probably going to end of its own volition. We are getting rid of it. We are bringing common core. We are knocking it out. We are cutting it. It is going to be over. And we are bringing education locally. Local communities are going to take care of their educational needs, and people have been waiting for that for a long time.
5) America is going to be upbeat, sunny and optimistic again.
The people of this country and the people of this state truly are great and amazing people. We are going to be so strong again. We are going to be …Really..Legitimately so great again, and I just cant wait.
* I also wanted to see how that headline performed from a SEO perspective.
So anyway.. There is nothing surprising or new here, but I am struck by how well they line up against Hillary Clinton’s weaknesses. While I give her credit for being less apologetic about being a Democrat than candidates like Kerry and Gore, she is till going to be in the difficult position of defending “Democratic Governance” throughout the campaign.
Because they basically agree with large parts of the Republican criticism of Democratic Governance, it is something party insiders have always had a terrible time defending.
On the up side, they don’t agree or align with Bernie’s talking points, which should allow for an easier reconciliation when the time comes. If Trump were smart, he’d embrace just enough of Bernie’s message to try to lure some of his less informed supporters. The problem for Trump is that he cannot do that until his primaries are almost done, or else the “real” Republicans won’t like his “liberal” positions.
There is a lot of Sanders-y populist sentiment in this…”I’m the guy who can make deals and reverse the pernicious effects of the terrible free trade deals.”
I hate to think of Clinton trying to mount some highly theoretical defense of NAFTA, while Trump bellows “you gave away our jobs!”
Trump will probably do well with white people and resentment politics. He will NOT get black, Hispanic, non-Christians, women, LGBT (and their friends and family) voters – you know, the people resentment politics are directed toward. Gotta blame someone. You can’t win with only the white vote. No way. No how.
For Trump to be a threat he’d have to pull from the core Dem voters. If someone can show me how he does this and keeps the “real” Republicans (like Mike points out), I’m all ears. I’m curious, because I know no one who would ever vote for Trump. Is there a Dem/liberal/progressive faction that I’m not seeing? Who are they?
It is politically and literally correct to note that “Hillary is not her husband.” but realistically she has to either run on Bill’s record, or run away from it. It is part of Democratic governance.
And, she won’t be able to answer Trump with condescending demands to “tone it down.”
On paper Pandora is right. From a demographics perspective, Clinton wins by a mile. The problem is people vote for all kinds of dumb reasons. Gore should have trounced Bush, but people “liked” Bush in spite of his obvious stupidity. The press heaped scorn on Gore because he was “wooden” and inauthentic.
I’d love for this race to be decided by the statistics, but it isn’t going t be.
“Is there a Dem/liberal/progressive faction that I’m not seeing? ”
The liberals I know are all opposed to any Republican but it is frightening to know how many otherwise non-political people in my own circles are pro-Trump.
I first noticed this with the “unaccompanied immigrant children” wave a few years ago. I know more than one otherwise perfectly nice mothers who were outraged that Delaware would take in some of those foreign kids. And that was basically the only time they spoke about politics.
Those suburban mothers have the same problem with city kids. That said, I have trouble seeing immigration being an issue that sways them. Suburban women tend to be staunch supporters of reproductive rights. Trump killed himself on that issue with his comments about punishing women.
@pandora – In my experience, middle-aged and older women are just as likely to be pro-life as pro-choice. I guess it depends on their own life experiences. I know plenty of women who are judgmental and would likely have no problem punishing women who have abortions, although they are not outspoken or activists. That’s just my impression. The subject is usually not discussed in social settings one way or the other.
realistically she has to either run on Bill’s record, or run away from it
Realistically. Bill’s record has little to do with now — except to say what she might address that still needs fixing *15 years later*. Hillary has been largely running as the Obama 3rd term — which is a perfectly fine record to run on.
Cassandra votes for “run away from it.”
Cassandra votes for “it isn’t material”. Bill Clinton was last President in 2001. We have a bunch of different issues now and a whole lot of other governance to address that has happened in between.
As a middle aged woman that has not been my experience with women, puck. Are there “pro-life” women? Sure, but they aren’t even close to the majority. And even when you speak with women who are uncomfortable with abortion and would be okay with some limitations, very few want it banned completely. Add to that that women are extremely protective and supportive of PP and that spells YUUUGE trouble for the GOP. Just as Komen.
Most of the concern I hear about Trump winning in November tends to come from white males. I simply don’t hear it from “rapist” Hispanics, “soon to be punished” women, “assaulted at Trump rallies” black people. You know, the groups that Dems need to win.
I just don’t understand the worry. It simply doesn’t resonate with me.
Let me put it another way (still impressionistic and unscientific): An uncomfortably large number of women I know would (probably) have no problem voting for a pro-life President if he offered them tax cuts.But hopefully you are right that the demographics no longer support it.
The demographics don’t support it. Go back and look at the 2008 and 2012 voter demographics. Tax cuts don’t help a woman who’s forced to give birth or is denied access to birth control – That is a woman’s economy. It can’t be separated into “the economy” and “women’s Issues”. Reproductive rights are part of the economy, and tax cuts don’t offset the cost of a child.
Any Dem who says Bill Clinton’s free trade agreements aren’t material, when Trump is basically running on “NAFTA is killing us” is in some deep denial.
I think Hillary can actually criticize Bill’s legacy better than most. It’s a Nixon goes to China thing. Obama had a hard time convincing the Clinton people in the House and Senate (I’m looking at you and your ilk Carper) that some of Bill’s policies were mistakes that needed to be reversed/fixed. When Hillary steps up and says that the impact of welfare reform/NAFTA/whatever had unintended consequences and need to be reversed.
Maybe I’m whistling past the graveyard, but I can see her softening the stance of Carper-like people.
Except that Clinton executed her “flip flop” on NAFTA back in 2008 and her current position is pretty much the same as then.
The problem is that Hillary was vetted on trade by Sanders, and had no credible response. She could either defend NAFTA/TPP and explain how it is good for America, or she could explain it is bad for America and pledge to reverse it. Instead, she chose a weaselly middle ground where she opposes TPP “as currently written,” which you and I understand to mean that she is for it. And nothing on NAFTA. That got her by Sanders but it won’t get her by Trump.
By the way, when Democrats speak of negotiating “improvements” to TPP, they usually are talking about some weak-ass job training programs for American workers who are displaced. Or improved conditions for overseas workers.
This makes my head spin. Why do certain people see Trump, after everything he’s said, as viable? I, and every woman and minority I know, have a visceral reaction to Trump. Is he connecting with you on some level? I’m really trying to understand how we can be so far apart on our concerns. Why would our views on Trump’s appeal be so different?
“When Hillary steps up and says that the impact of welfare reform/NAFTA/whatever had unintended consequences and need to be reversed.”
Tomorrow, and tomorrow, and tomorrow, creeps in this petty pace from day to day, to the last syllable of recorded time.
I think you give the average american too much credit. If it hasnt happened in the last 2 weeks, it hasnt happened for most people. If Trump flat out shuts up with the racsit shit, do you honestly think CNN (and the rest) will remind people? the head of CBS said how great he is for ratings and a Trump Presidency would be a GOLD MINE for the media. I fear we will be screaming into the wind, trying desperately to remind people who he really is, while the MSM creates the narrative of Mean Ol Hillary and Your Buddy Donald.
“Why do certain people see Trump, after everything he’s said, as viable?”
Ever since W’s election, I don’t hold our media in very high esteem. Nor do I trust most voters to make well informed choices that are in their best interest.
..Also, what Ben said.
Yes, of course Trump is connecting with me on some issues, the same way I agree with Rand Paul on two or three things. That doesn’t mean I will vote for Trump.
Think of how dumb the average person is…. then remember half of all the people are dumber than them.
Trade issue is more than just one issue. It resonates with me because it is tied directly to the hollowing out of the middle class, lack of upward mobility, decline of real income, increase in poverty and inequality – and all the unfortunate social issues that result from the low-wage economy.
Bernie never laid it out to connect the dots on trade to all the other economic and social issues. But if Trump can do it successfully, I think that could be a very resonant argument.
But I still wouldn’t vote for him, because of all the other crap he has going on.
I completely understand Trump’s appeal to white males, but I can’t worry about this when a good portion of Republicans won’t vote for him along with women and minorities. Basically, we don’t need to worry about women and minorities voting en masse for Trump and we get to add disgruntled Republicans to the mix. The only real concern seems to be about white males defecting? Does that sound about right?
Ben, the media will make every race a horse race – no matter who’s running, just like they did in 2008 and 2012. If you were reading Nate Silver at that time you weren’t worried about the media and their “un-skewed” polls. No matter how hard the press tried to make you concerned.
George W. was dumb, but it was also perceived as a low stakes election and voter turnout was extremely low. Things were humming along nicely, and people chose what the believed to be the more interesting between two ok candidates. We’re viewing Bush through a post-Bush lens. No one knew what harm he would do or how serious the world would become within a year.
Trump is no Bush, and this isn’t 2000. Trump is a known quantity, and people don’t feel ambivalent about him at all. They either love him (white males, mostly) or hate him (the rest of us). That doesn’t translate into a viable electoral strategy for him.
“But if he can successfully connect the dots on trade to all the other campaign issues, I think that could be a very resonant argument.”
To whom? In order to get the base of the Dem party he’d have to offer a ton more than that. He’d also have to go back in time and erase every nasty, deeply offensive racist, bigoted and sexist thing that has spewed from his mouth.
And Ben, I don’t think the voting public who gave Obama the presidency twice (easily) is dumb.
Pandora, I also wouldn’t sleep on this one:
Americans love a happy story and a smiling face.
http://www.pollingreport.com/trade.htm
Trade matters to people and Hillary should make sure she speaks out in favor of making it “more fair”….whatever that means. That said, I don’t think most people see it as their #1 and it is certainly not enough for many to overlook Trump’s transgressions unless they are already sympathetic to some of his other ideas.
“Americans love a happy story and a smiling face.”
Trump supporters like a happy white person story where women, black, brown and non-Christians know their place, and as long as the smiling face is white – and preferably male.
Fixed that for ya! 😉
@B “do you honestly think CNN (and the rest) will remind people?”
And THAT is why we need to donate to Hillary. She will remind them.
@p “I completely understand Trump’s appeal to white males”
I don’t understand, and I AM a white male. There’s little to admire there…
Also … As much as we liberals don’t get it, there are people of all ages, colors and gender ID that simply love a guy with swagger. It is encoded deep down in the lizard brain.
@J “…that simply love a guy with swagger. It is encoded deep down in the lizard brain.”
Maybe they need more REAL competition in their lives. In my professional world, incompetents with swagger get kicked down the hallway and out of the building. That’s exactly what should happen to Trump. He really is a know-nothing incompetent clown.
I get that, LE. I was talking demographic breakdowns on voters.
@J “Americans love a happy story and a smiling face.”
Does that include an obnoxious grin?
“In my professional world, incompetents with swagger get kicked down the hallway and out of the building.”
In the real world, we had George W. Bush for 8 long years.
And Trump won’t get away without discussing policy during debates anymore. That’s really why the other GOP candidates couldn’t take him out. They didn’t want to discuss policy either.
It’s also why when the GOP field narrowed Trump said no more debates. Too much time for tough policy questions with fewer candidates.
@p “It’s also why when the GOP field narrowed Trump said no more debates.”
But can he say no more debates to Hillary???
I’m sure he dreads getting on the debate stage with her, but how can he avoid it and remain being seen as credible?
It might go something like this…
Moderator: “Mr. Trump, can you please tell us how you would fix (something-difficult-and-complex)?”
Trump: “Well, I’ve got great advisors and we’ve got some great ideas, and we’ll just fix it. It’ll be great!”
Clinton: “You really don’t have a clue, do you? Here’s what we really need to do….”
Play that scene over a dozen times, and people will notice.
Agreed.
Btw, I was referring to Trump saying no more GOP debates. Sorry I wasn’t clear. If he won’t debate Hillary it’s over.
Love that debate answer of yours. Yeah, he won’t get away with that one.
They’re almost going to have to hire a SNL actor to debate prep Hillary; I don’t think any real politician can act so absurd in the face of real questions.
“In my professional world, incompetents with swagger get kicked down the hallway and out of the building”
funny, there is this dude who has failed at business multiple times, proven over and over again that he has very little business sense and relies entirely on the fact that people think his brand is worth something…. i forget his name though… anyway, he’s a total incompetent who is all swagger and seems to get his way all the time. I wish i could remember that moron’s name.
^like^
I hope they don’t compare hand size.
To check myself (to forestall a possible wrecking of myself), I went to RedState to see if the truly loony were warming up to Trump yet.
They aren’t, and it is beatuful.
Oh, give it time Jason.
Trump will assault a female reporter from Redstate… when she stands up for herself, they will fire her, purge the “liberal agents” and “get back to their conservative values” I see that happening mid-June.
Oh I know. I have no doubt that all Republicans will fall in line.
http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2016/04/21/donald-trump-says-transgender-people-should-use-the-bathroom-they-want/?_r=0
hunh?
That’s what he does.
Trump is non-ideological and will hit you from the left and the right simultaneously under the banner of populism.
Let’s just tell the truth: He’s a mess. His one consistency – ticking people (of every group/demographic) off daily. Yep, that’s it.