Saturday Open Thread [5.7.16]
WEST VIRGINIA—MetroNews–Sanders 47, Clinton 43
This would be a surprise result. Sanders is likely to win West Virginia 58-42 or something close to that.
This is unfortunate.
New York Times: “Hoping for a moment of party unity, Mr. Trump had scarcely declared victory in Indiana when the cascade of rejection began, starting with the announcement by George Bush and his son George W. Bush, the only former Republican presidents still living, that they would not back his candidacy. And on Thursday night, Mitt Romney, the party’s 2012 nominee, said he intended to hold to his earlier pledge not to vote for Mr. Trump, according to an audio recording of his remarks.”
“Mr. Romney’s remarks came just hours after House Speaker Paul D. Ryan, the nation’s highest-ranking Republican elected official, delivered an embarrassing blow to Mr. Trump, declaring that he had not yet proven himself worthy of an endorsement.”
And now Jeb Bush and Lindsay Graham say they won’t vote for Trump. Trump reacted as maturely as you’d expect. And he has now turned against his top fellater Joe Scarborough because Joe said he wouldn’t vote for Trump unless he dropped his Muslim ban.
Former CIA Director says Trump would be a “hard brief.”
Erick Erickson is evil. He will live eternity in Hell. But this is interesting:
Seventeen years after Republicans impeached Bill Clinton for covering up an affair, they are handing their party over to a man who has openly bragged about his affairs. On the day the Republicans first meet in Cleveland, Donald Trump will be taken to court for allegedly defrauding hard working Americans through Trump University…
Republicans owe Bill Clinton an apology for impeaching him over lies and affairs while now embracing a pathological liar and womanizer.
Trump’s main weakness is he hates women. And he really hates strong women. And he hates to be mocked. Add all those together and you have Elizabeth Warren. She has to be on the ticket!
If Donald Trump sending out a photo of himself eating a taco bowl with the caption “I love Hispanics” wasn’t strange enough, the Independent Journal Review discovered a photo of Trump’s ex-wife Marla Maples in a bikini on his desk in the photo.
Last month, GQ magazine published a profile of Melania Trump. The story was written by Julia Ioffe, who has since been inundated with anti-Semitic death threats from bigoted Donald Trump supporters. Or as Trump calls them, “fans of mine.” And then he refused to condemn them.
Trump doesn't condemn fans threatening reporter @juliaioffe "I don't have a message" to fans https://t.co/95d0SnGj2c https://t.co/MI3lx1xVrD
— The Situation Room (@CNNSitRoom) May 4, 2016
Josh Marshall says Donald Trump is no mystery:
Several times over the years I’ve told the story of the first big political prediction I got right – less than a year into my first job in journalism. It was the fall of 1998, in the build up to President Clinton’s impeachment, and I was telling my officemates that I thought Democrats would pick up seats in the November election. I tried to write about it but my editor wouldn’t let me. (He said I would embarrass the publication.) This was contrary to what virtually everyone else predicted. So what special insight did I have? Really, none. I watched the public polling and paid attention to what those polls were saying. Contrary to the widespread predictions of a GOP wave, they suggested a modest Democratic gain, which is precisely what happened. Everyone else saw the same polls. But almost everyone else had come up with explanations for why they couldn’t be right. […]
For just the same reasons, no one has any business being surprised that Trump is now the Republican nominee. Don’t get me wrong. Polls can obviously be wrong. They sometimes miss a race, sometimes dramatically. But when consistent and sustained polling data conflicts with your logic, there’s quite likely something wrong with your logic.Trump is the perfect example.
Starting in early July of last year, only weeks after entering the race, Trump moved into a nationwide lead and never looked back. For nine months, Trump lead the polls and never once lost that lead. Indeed, from early August until today his lead steadily grew from roughly 25% to 50% support today. You have to go back to George W. Bush in 2000 to see domination on anything like that scale – and Bush had a lock on establishment backing from the outset. Looked at from this perspective it’s remarkable that anyone could have looked at this race at any time in recent months and not concluded that Trump was the overwhelming favorite to win the nomination. […]
Now in the first glow of Trump’s nomination, we’re hearing all sorts of arguments about how the political magic he pulled in the GOP primaries he’ll now bring to bear against Hillary Clinton. He’s agile. He’s free to change positions whenever he pleases. He just hasn’t started in on Hillary yet. The normal rules don’t apply to him.
Again, let’s look at what the polls suggest.
The same mistake is being made. People assume Hillary cannot beat Trump because Trump defied their poll ignoring logic. And they make that assumption by ignoring the polls, again.
Warren’s twitter-storm is awesome and is far better material than anything the Clinton campaign will come up with. She doesn’t need to be on the ticket to keep doing that.
From that Daily Banter article — this is far worse than unfortunate:
Politics is hardball and I get that, but this kind of thuggishness used to be the skillsets of the resentful right. Guess we have another Not So Brilliant Disguise.
My hope is that Sanders will concede and endorse Hillary shortly before the convention or immediately after the first ballot. Then any protesters can be properly identified as protesting for $15/hr, against TPP, for breaking up the big banks, etc rather than “for Bernie.”
I feel I like getting on Twitter simply to follow Warren.
I know what Hillary and her supporters want is a photo of Hillary, Warren, and DWS all having a sisterly group hug in the Year of the Woman. But Warren would do well to keep her distance from Hillary until her strategy vs. Wall Street becomes more aligned with Warren’s point of view. Hillary has already met with Warren and was unable to win her endorsement.
Warren hasn’t endorsed anybody yet.
Given the stories yesterday about the exchange between Sanders and Wasserman-Schultz it does not look like he plans to concede before the convention.
Right now Clinton’s best-case scenario on that point is that Sanders does not concede and makes himself back over into a cranky old grandpa who can be safely patted on the head at the convention.
A thoughtful consideration from NPR of why Clinton may ultimately have more difficulty with Trump on economics than most people here seem to think. I post not to bash Clinton, but to point out that policy wonks often make much better elected officials than they do candidates, and that there is some concern about that in higher Dem circles.
Asked what, in one sentence, Clinton wants to do, here’s what David Axelrod, President Obama’s former strategist, said:
“I don’t think Hillary Clinton wants to do anything in one sentence,” said Axelrod. “That’s the problem, right? She wants to do things in paragraphs and pages. This has always been a problem in that she is incredibly fluent in policy, she embraces good policy ideas, but she has a hard time weaving them into a coherent narrative that cuts through.”
As opposed to Trump:
That’s not Donald Trump’s problem.
Not only does he have a simple, clear message — he often says so himself.
“Our theme is very simple,” Trump reminded voters last week after winning the Indiana primary. “Make America great again. We will make America great again. We will start winning again.”
Behind that simple message, there are a host of equally simple sounding policies — policies aimed right at Americans’ economic insecurities. Build a wall, dump the bad trade deals, deport 11 million immigrants in the country illegally. Love those ideas or loathe them, it’s crystal clear what Trump wants to do.
The piece is not long, but it is well considered and worth reading.
http://www.npr.org/2016/05/07/477034130/unlike-donald-trump-hillary-clinton-lacks-a-simple-clear-economic-message
The Democratic are are going to have to come to terms with NAFTA and the financial crisis. Obama can help with the latter, but Trump appears to be focused on the former.
Like I said, Hillary was not able to win Warren’s endorsement. Warren will not endorse Sanders, because she will still be in the Senate under President Clinton. If you strike the queen you must kill her.
But she will not endorse Hillary until Sanders concedes. When Warren does endorse Hillary, everybody will know she preferred Sanders.
Sanders wasn’t able to win Warren’s endorsement, either.
Elizabeth Warren is a smart woman, who gets precisely her own value to this process. She isn’t going to spend that value lightly. There was no reason to endorse anyone until there was a winner. And she isn’t going to expend her own political capital defensively, either.
“Republicans owe Bill Clinton an apology for impeaching him over lies and affairs while now embracing a pathological liar and womanizer.”
Wasn’t this already the case in the days of Bob Livingston and Newt Gingrich? It took this long for Erick the Grate to notice the hypocrisy? Oh well, at least we now know how long it takes an idea to penetrate the conservative mind — 18 years.
Trigger warning: This comment is not intended to undermine Hillary Clinton’s ability to win the November election. It addresses political philosophy in the abstract, and barely mentions the November election at all. Any offense is unintentional:
Paul Rosenberg at Salon goes beyond the election at hand to analyze the broader realignment Trump is causing. It’s well-reasoned and says better than I’ve been managing to what I’m trying to get across:
http://www.salon.com/2016/05/07/theyre_still_not_telling_the_real_story_donald_trump_bernie_sanders_and_the_analysis_you_wont_hear_on_cable_news/
Spoiler alert: It’s a longish piece with lots of links, but it supports this basic point near its conclusion:
“Sanders represents a revitalized New Deal-style social democratic vision, characterized by universalist programs like free public education, Medicare and Social Security, in which the fruits of a successful economy are broadly and equitably shared by all. It represents the kind of fundamental shift in logic to a broadly cooperative social order that’s exactly what we need to reverse our current trend toward social instability, even crisis.
“In contrast, Clinton argues for updating 1980s “New Democrat”-style improvements within a capitalist meritocratic system, expanding opportunities for the most successful individuals of formerly excluded groups, but leaving the underlying logic of selective individual success in place, with narrowly-tailored means-tested programs purported to serve those left furthest behind. The game of musical chairs can be improved significantly, Clinton argues, if only everyone is allowed to play and “compete equally,” but Sanders points out that the game is rigged: a shortage of chairs is the whole point of the game.”
That analysis is not linked to the current election, but to the political positions being represented by each candidate.
If we elect another Demo, for President and for the Gov of DE. We are screwed!!!
Demo=demolish!!!
From this:
http://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/2015/11/25/markell-praises-federal-decision-pjm-power-line/76387078/
To this:
http://www.delawareonline.com/story/news/2016/04/25/delaware-power-customers-pay-artificial-island-bill/83497378/
“The proposed cost for a new power line connecting the Artificial Island nuclear complex to Delaware has nearly doubled to $272 million, an expense that many state electricity customers will end up paying.”
And the DE Utility customers get screwed again! Wow, let’s elect another Democrat to the office of Gov.
Bloom Energy deal worked out well; 7 jobs in DE, 5 in India and the rest in CALIFORNIA! Who’s minding the mint?
People should be up in arms about this, call your elected officials. Republicans and Democrats……..THIS IS ON YOUR WATCH!!!! THE GOV., DOESN’T CARE, HE IS WAITING FOR HILLARY TO GET ELECTED FOR HIS NEXT JOB OF SEC. OF EDUCATION
@anon Rosenberg article=brilliant. Thanks for link.
Markell isn’t the problem, PJM is. Unfortunately, PJM is a private Regional Transmission Organization (RTO). We are being taxed to alleviate a transmission bottleneck for the system. Delaware benefits so little because it doesn’t suffer because of the bottleneck. PJM tries to be equitable in how it treats it’s members (frome here to Illinois), but members have to participate in certain improvements. Apparently, Delmarva may have been benefitting at the expense of other utilities.
This story begs more information about a topic that is boring, but important.