Did GOP Moderates Just Become Relevant?
Stephen Greenberg, a Democratic pollster and author of American Ascendant, writes, “Moderate Republicans will have the last word in this dramatic presidential election year.” Greenberg believes that moderates make up 31% of Republican party.
What do these moderates want?
Moderates want to see the country, and their own party, make progress on equal pay for women, climate change, financial reform and long-term investment in infrastructure.
…
This is not to say that moderates have nothing in common with the rest of the Republican base. They are fiscally conservative, distrust regulation, and want lower taxes and a strong military. They would repeal Obamacare, and they want the government to get control of immigration.
How might all of this play out in November?
Our polling found that just 60 percent of GOP moderates said they would vote for Trump in a matchup with Clinton. Only 10 percent were ready to vote for Clinton, but fully 30 percent said they would vote for some other person, wouldn’t vote or weren’t sure what to do. Only 6 percent of Republicans voted for Barack Obama in 2012.
Admittedly, these are not big numbesr, but Greenberg goes on:
Ultimately, Clinton’s muscular views on national security, which position her to the right of Trump, may persuade some of these voters to listen to her on other issues. According to my survey, GOP moderates are moved by Clinton’s message that social changes accepted in much of the country should be set aside so we can begin “addressing our country’s problems.”
Tags: 2016 Presidential Election, Donal Trump, Featured, Hillary Clinton, Republican Party
“According to my survey, GOP moderates are moved by Clinton’s message that social changes accepted in much of the country should be set aside so we can begin “addressing our country’s problems.”
So… Moderates don’t want their party to be the party of bathrooms? Well, that’s really all that’s left to them. Remember the Republican autopsy? Good times.
I call bullshit. All republicans will vote for Trump. All of them.
Republican moderates need to find a new base.
Also, we are lowering the bar on what a “Republican moderate” is. Reagan was an extremist and his acolytes are by definition not moderates. All the Republican moderates are now in the Democratic party.
From The Hill:
Report: Romney recruiting Kasich, Sasse for third-party option
“Romney and other top Republicans are still on the hunt for a third-party candidate.”
and
Report: Republicans approached Mark Cuban about third-party bid
“The investor said there’s not enough time.”
Mike Cadtle has endorsed Trump. All this Republicans in disarray is simply bullshit.
“I call bullshit. All republicans will vote for Trump. All of them.”
My experience tells me this isn’t true. Sure, a lot of them will, but there’s a portion who won’t – and, in order to win they’ll need all hands on deck. They can’t afford to lose anyone.
Romney’s actions are interesting. I don’t think for a minute he’s going rogue – which brings me back to: The Republican establishment (small, but still needed for Trump to win) still wants to control how they lose this election. They’ve already written it off as a loss (yes, anything can happen in a two person race. That’s a given.). Romney and co. appear to be looking at 4 years down the road. Another re-branding?
I don’t think the re-branding will work – they’ve worked too hard to get to where they are. How do you kick-out or change the mindset of the racist, sexist, bigoted group you wooed specifically due to their racism, sexism and bigotry? Re-branding and rebuilding will require jettisoning this group, and then… what’s left?
“Re-branding and rebuilding will require jettisoning this group, and then… what’s left?”
They can adopt the Tom Carper “bipartisan” style whether they are nominally Republicans or Democrats.
Ist question. How is moderate defined? 2nd question. Why is this good news for rank and file Democrats even if its is true? Wouldn’t this mean that Hillary will move to the center during the general and as president in order to keep that constituency for a second term? Progressivism placed on hold once more out of pragmatic electoral “necessity.”
@J “I call bullshit. All republicans will vote for Trump. All of them.”
I’m not so sure. Look at the Utah poll showing Hillary ahead there. Utah is pissed at the way Trump treated their favorite son, Romney.
Sure they may be very conservative there, but in the end, this will probably depend on what Romney says and does.
Right now, Romney is working to screw over Trump while also protecting the down ballot races. If this succeeds, Trump is toast… he might not even come in second place.
Team Clinton will work hard for to show that Clinton is the natural choice for these few Republican defectors. Yeah… It sucks because it d rather they work hard to win over liberals.
@Jason330, don’t you know not-won-over-liberals are suppose to vote for Hillary, no questions asked. It’s what The Party demands!
It is what we Obama supporters asked (really, demanded) of Clinton supporters in 2008.
Personally, I’m not telling anyone how to vote. Do what you want, but no absolving yourselves if Trump wins. We’ll all share the blame if that happens.
good grief. accept republican moderates if it helps defeat trump. beating trump is the biggest concern right now. this is no time for a purity test.
I’m not in charge of any gateway for accepting or rejecting Democrats. There isn’t even a gateway.
For years many self proclaimed progressives have been arguing that we must go for the moderate Dem because the alternative, a Republican, would be worse. They have argued this even during the primary process when unambiguously better progressive alternative Dem candidates were available. Remarkably, they even argued this during this election cycle when the polls consistently showed that the more progressive candidate was the most electable.
Eventually, one has to start wondering if these so-called progressives will ever stop proferring the “least of two undesirables” argument for moderates and clearly side with a clear progressive as a largely unqualified good. At some point, one must come to the conclusion that broken records are just that: broken and not helpful.
“Republican Moderates”, ain’t no sech a thing!
The root cause of the difficulty in predicting what labeled group will or will not vote for Trump is that Trump is really a chameleon. He is Mr. Flexible. There isn’t a single issue he has not changed his mind about and often that change happens within the same speech.
What do people see when they see Trump? Progressives see a far right wackjob. The hard right conservatives see a liberal. I’m not sure what the moderates see. As a moderate my view of Trump is that he is a wild card. I have no clue what really is. What he really stands for or what he will do if he was in the White House. My opposition to Trump reflects my view that he is a loose cannon, who is liable to say and do almost anything (or not). That’s too much uncertainty for me.
So when predicting with any accuracy what group will or will not vote for Trump, it depends on which Trump is the candidate. Trump has managed to be many things to many people. I don’t know how long that lasts, but it’s far longer than it should have lasted already. I don’t think anyone really knows which Trump is the candidate, including Donald Trump.
TRUMP wins and it is fault of young women who supported SANDERS and never took the time to look at career accomplishments of Hillary Clinton . All they wanted was more FREE STUFF.
Add “young women” to the blame list.
Got it.
Also. 75% of Republicans say they will vote for Trump. That will be 90% by the convention and 99% by the election.
jason is correct. At best some fraction of the GOP vote will stay home. I get all the fundraising emails from everybody and every PAC on every end of the spectrum.
Here’s the one that “Save the American Way” PAC sent me today with the title, “Conservatism’s New Era”–pay particular attention to the transform that Jeff Sessions does in the last two paragraphs.
U.S. Sen. Jeff Sessions sought Saturday to convince Texas Republicans that Donald Trump is the conservative leader needed to change Washington.
“The American people are not happy,” the Alabama Republican told delegates at the state GOP convention in Dallas. “They are looking for something different.”
Sessions said Trump would properly overhaul the nation’s immigration system and secure the southern border.
“He’s going to build a wall to ensure that,” Sessions said.
Sessions said Trump, as president, would appoint conservative justices to the Supreme Court, reverse bad trade deals and rebuild the military.
“Donald Trump believes in a strong national defense,” Sessions said. “Peace through strength. That’s conservative.”
Sessions appeared at the convention as a representative of Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee who is busy convincing Republican leaders that he can be the party’s standard bearer.
Delegates are giving Trump a chance, and they greeted Sessions and his message with applause.
The senator said Trump would beat likely Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by scrambling the typical electoral map, putting Rust Belt states like Michigan and Pennsylvania in play. Session lamented that Republicans were no longer appealing to working-class voters, save for Trump.
“You cannot get killed like that and win elections,” Sessions said of the 2012 campaign of Mitt Romney. “We’re not talking to them. We’ve lost those voters. … Trump is reaching them.”
Here’s the thing: the courting of the GOP is going to happen well under the radar, and it is instructive that Trump already has willing surrogates out there starting to beat the bushes at that level.
The danger is actually not to Trump (who can only lose an election), but to Mitt Romney, Paul Ryan, etc. (who are losing a party base right out from under them).
Think about it: Trump now has Ryan–whose conservative credentials include just proposing to cut $23 billion from SNAP–on the defensive. He really doesn’t care about how much of a doofuss he looks like over the next month to everybody else. He knows his audience.
Just a quick word of warning (to myself primarily as i hear isolated bits of Trump’s ejaculations and say, wow, I’d like that; maybe we’ve been too harsh on him…)
Hitler (remember him?) was also voted in… He was considered the best choice by a majority of the German people who usually when measured collectively, are considered a relatively smart bunch of people.
if you have ever wondered how they could lose their smarts, go back and read. It oddly will be very familiar to you if you’ve been paying attention these past 7 months….
@kavips: Hitler (remember him?) was also voted in… He was considered the best choice by a majority of the German people
Not quite. Weimar Germany had a parliamentary system, and the NSDAP attained a plurality, not a majority, in that year’s election. Hitler was elected to a single seat in the Reichstag and then voted in as Chancellor by a coalition between the NSDAP and a couple minor parties in the government. The same coalition selected retired Field Marshal Paul von Hindenburg (no Nazi he!) as President.
So, no, the German people never elected Hitler in the same way that we elect a President.
@Steve: The support for Trump in the deep South is something to behold, and Sessions is nothing if not a Klansman with the sheet on the inside.
A drive from Memphis to New Orleans helped convince me that movement conservatism is dead. Given the choice between Ayn Rand and David Duke, the vast majority of white Southerners pick Duke.