The New and Improved Donald Trump
I have said that people who think that this election is going to be a blow out have a screw loose. Josh Marshall apparently agrees, pointing out that Trump’s victory speech marked a clear move away from “Crazy Racist Trump” and toward a Ross-Perot style economic nationalist, and foreign policy realist:
Some highlights:
*He framed the election in classic populist terms: “I’m going to be America’s champion because you see this election isn’t about Republican or Democrat; it’s about who runs this country – the special interests or the people and I mean the American people.”
*Instead of the usual Republican bromides against government spending, he bemoaned crumbling public infrastructure: “I visited the crumbling cities and the struggling schools. I’ve seen our dilapidated airports, highways, bridges and I’ve compared them to other countries where we see facilities so far superior to ours it’s really not to be believed, hard to imagine what’s happened to our country.”
*He cited the loss of manufacturing jobs: “I’ve visited communities in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Indiana and Ohio whose manufacturing jobs, they literally, these jobs have virtually disappeared, an embarrassment to our country and it’s horrible.”
*He used the slogan of “America First” (most Americans are unaware of the slogan’s origins) to highlight his opposition to foreign intervention that wasn’t directly linked to America’s security. Citing Clinton’s intervention in Iraq, Libya and Syria, he described his own foreign policy: “It means on foreign policy we will never enter into any kind conflict unless it makes us safer as a nation. It has to make us safer as a nation.”
*He also used the slogan of “America First” to link his opposition to illegal immigration, but on economic rather than cultural rounds: “America First means protecting the jobs, wages and security of American workers, whether first or tenth generation.” Then he segued to a universal appeal: “No matter who you are, we’re going to protect your job because let me tell you our jobs are being stripped from our country like we’re babies…Every American worker of every background is entitled to the same benefits, protections and rights and privileges; it’s got to be that way.”
*He also used “America First” to explain his opposition to NAFTA and other trade deals. “On trade, America First means the American worker will have his or her job protected from unfair foreign competition.”
*In his repeated promise to create new jobs, he specifically included African Americans with the highest rate of unemployment: “We’re going to put America back to work. We’re going to make our own products. We’re going to put America back to work. We’re going to rebuild our inner cities which are absolutely a shame and so sad. We’re going to take care of our African American people that have been mistreated for so long.”
*Finally, instead of attacking Clinton for her relationship with her husband – and some other sordid irrelevance – he honed in on where Clinton is most vulnerable: “The Clintons have turned the politics of personal enrichment into an art form for themselves. They’ve made hundreds of millions of dollars selling access, selling favors, selling government contracts, and I mean hundreds of millions of dollars. Secretary Clinton even did all of the work on a totally illegal private server. Something about how she’s getting away with this folks nobody understands.”
Here is the most recent IEM Futures market graph.
Yet Hillary is enjoying her highest rating yet on the prediction markets.
And Donald has lost about 1/3rd of his “value” since clinching the nomination.
http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner
If you’re going to use the prediction markets to make a point…
I use the prediction markets as a balm for my soul. A poultice. A soothing soak in the healing waters of lake Manitou.
Whether you think Trump is capable of being a populist champion or not, you have to admit that field is wide open for him.
Wait until they debate and Hillary laughs at him and wipes the stage with him, he will blow a gasket.
@jason: Are you going to share whatever you’re smoking, or bogart it all for yourself?
The problem with this premise, that Trump can win if he just stops being Trump, has been illustrated this week: Without the offensive statements, Trump gets little free media. And because his fund-raising operation is almost non-existent, he can’t compete without free media. So his only way of staying on the front page is to continue to act outrageously. If he turns into just another politician, there go his ratings and there goes his campaign. If he keeps acting outrageously, he still gets ratings but there goes his campaign.
There is a happy medium. Do I think it will be 20 point blowout? No. But will Trump win or will it be a very close race? Also no. Hillary will win, at worst, a 2008 victory margin, both in the popular vote and in the electoral vote (i.e. 54-46; 347 ec). That’s a 8 point victory, which is a landslide in American politics. It is what the elder Bush won by in 1988.
Anonymous is right, not 20 minutes after his supposedly glorious speech that has your knees shaking, he was Hannity being Trump again. Trump cannot change.
Im interested to see how he handles the loss. Does he demand recounts? Does he completely detach from reality and just declare victory (god knows the MSM would play along “who KNOWS who really won”) despite the margin? Or does he just vanish. No concession speech, no phone call… just moves on and refuses to talk about it.
We have a little creeping Beltway Consultant-itis up in here. You’ve lost touch with the problems of “real” Americans. There is a big audience for “America First” talk that cleaves to isolationist and an anti-free trade talking points.
Can Trump do it? Can he keep his eye on the ball? Who knows.
I am far from optimistic about this election. All I need to shake me out of any sense of optimism is to remember President George the Worst.
At the same time, I am skeptical that Trump can control his temper or ego for a week, let alone for four-plus months.
I just wish I could be complacent enough to sit back and enjoy the show . . . .
If the press allows Trump to reinvent himself and ignores everything he’s said then we have bigger problems. It would be like giving Ted Nugent a pass. Oh, I don’t doubt they’ll do it for a bit (gotta have a horse race!), but I bet they’ll Palin him in the end.
What is the logic that says that one “normal” (relative to standard GOP insanity) speech erases a whole week’s worth of unstable, abnormal behavior leading up to it? Not saying you’re wrong, but I remember when it first became clear he would clinch the nomination and for a little while everyone thought there was a “new Trump”… until there wasn’t.
“What is the logic that says that one “normal”… speech erases a whole week’s worth of unstable, abnormal behavior leading up to it?”
The logic is:
Assumption: Trump wants to win, and
Given: American’s Short Attention Span, and
Given: The Press wants a horse race, and
Therefor: What abnormal behavior?
What Jason said.
Except that the press also wants to be in on the history of it all. So, they have to walk a little line, make it a horse race but don’t overshadow the historical drama.
Since it is conventional wisdom that Trump would a catastrophe, I am going watch the balance between the history and the catastrophe. If you are the media, how do you play it? Disaster sells, but so does history. Which has greater drawing power?
Is this Trump 3.0 or 4.0 reboot? ‘Memba when he had a ‘great meeting’ with Reince Preibus then Trump went off the rails? Or Ryan’s ‘great meeting’?
Trump is doing so well, republican insiders are talking about convention mayhem again to get him out of the race.
Yeah, he’s doing great. Putting America First is a great idea. Except the guy selling it is crazy and supported the Iraq war and sells ties made in Mexico and suits from China.
The problem with the conclusion that Trump can reinvent himself in such a way that he will gain sufficient popular appeal to win the presidency is that it assumes he has the degree of self control over his mental pathologies to contain them over several months of daily intense public exposure, scrutiny, and challenges. He is so obviously pathological that in his case that is a vast assumption.
Here’s Trump’s latest tweet. So Presidential.
He ain’t changing.
Lol! His tweets are great. I feel better
Bob Dole was on NPR this AM endorsing Trump and claiming to be a senior advisor to Trump. Weird. He’s very happy with the way Trump has toned down the rhetoric.
He said that.
The NYT had a piece on the new Trump. A media meme is easy to start, and hard to kill once it starts rolling.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/09/us/politics/donald-trump-campaign.html?_r=0