Thursday Open Thread, June 16, 2016

NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–CBS News—Clinton 43, Trump 37
WISCONSIN–PRESIDENT–Marquette Law School—Clinton 46, Trump 37
WISCONSIN–SENATOR–Marquette Law School—Feingold 51, Johnson 42

As the 2016 general election begins, Clinton holds a 5-point overall advantage in the Politico Battleground States polling average over Trump, 44.8 percent to 39.8 percent. Clinton also has the advantage in eight of the 11 individual swing states.

“The debut of the Battleground States polling average sets a baseline for the race to 270 electoral votes, focusing only on the 11 states most likely to determine the outcome in November — Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. The basics of the average are straightforward: it’s based on the most recent public polls from each of the 11 states and weighted by each state’s representation in the Electoral College.”

A new ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that 70% of Americans see Donald Trump unfavorably, up 10 points in just the past month to a new high since he announced his candidacy for president.

Donald Trump said today he was right to imply that President Obama is an ISIS sympathizer, ABC News reports. In an attempt to defend his controversial claims that the president supports the terrorist group, Trump tweeted a story from Breitbart.com that cites a newly discovered “secret” memo the website says proves Obama is an ISIS supporter.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), “who had pledged for months not to seek re-election to the Senate while he waged an ill-fated campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, said Wednesday that he is rethinking that decision and could enter the race as soon as next week,” the Washington Post reports.

“Rubio said his decision followed a Sunday conversation with his friend Florida Lt. Gov. Carlos Lopez-Cantera (R), who is running to succeed him in the Senate, on the sidelines of the scene of the terror attack in Orlando.”

“More than a third of likely voters backing Democrat Hillary Clinton in the latest Bloomberg Politics national poll say she should pick Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, a darling of the party’s liberal wing, as her running mate.”

“On the Republican side, almost a third of likely voters supporting Donald Trump say former House Speaker Newt Gingrich would be his best pick.”

A new Bloomberg poll finds just 32% of Americans view the Republican Party favorably, the lowest level recorded since the poll’s inception. The Democratic Party, by contrast, is seen favorably by 49%.

The New York Times says Trump responds to tragedy by creating more fear: “Exploitation of fear has been part of the American political playbook since colonial pamphleteers whipped their neighbors into a frenzy over British misrule. It took on new potency in the nuclear age with Lyndon Johnson’s ‘Daisy’ ad against Barry Goldwater in 1964 and Jimmy Carter’s warnings about Ronald Reagan’s finger on the button in 1980.”

“But Mr. Trump — who drew harsh condemnation from President Obama on Tuesday — has intensified the power of fear in presidential politics by demonizing an entire religious group. And he has expanded the use of that power by stirring up fear in the aftermath of national traumas, like the San Bernardino, Calif., attack and now the Orlando shooting, that traditionally elicited measured and soothing responses from political leaders.”

In the credit where credit is due department, hats off to Utah Lt. Governor Spencer Cox (R) addressed a vigil held to honor the victims and survivors of the mass shooting in Orlando:

Thank you for being here tonight on this very solemn and somber occasion. I begin with an admission and an apology. First, I recognize fully that I am a balding, youngish, middle-aged straight, white, male, Republican, politician… with all of the expectations and privileges that come with those labels. I am probably not who you expected to hear from today.

I’m here because, yesterday morning, 49 Americans were brutally murdered. And it made me sad. And it made me angry. And it made me confused. I’m here because those 49 people were gay. I’m here because it shouldn’t matter. But I’m here because it does. I am not here to tell you that I know exactly what you are going through. I am not here to tell you that I feel your pain. I don’t pretend to know the depths of what you are feeling right now. But I do know what it feels like to be scared. And I do know what it feels like to be sad. And I do know what it feels like to be rejected. And, more importantly, I know what it feels like to be loved.

I grew up in a small town and went to a small rural high school. There were some kids in my class that were different. Sometimes I wasn’t kind to them. I didn’t know it at the time, but I know now that they were gay. I will forever regret not treating them with the kindness, dignity and respect — the love — that they deserved. For that, I sincerely and humbly apologize.

Over the intervening years, my heart has changed. It has changed because of you. It has changed because I have gotten to know many of you. You have been patient with me. You helped me learn the right letters of the alphabet in the right order even though you keep adding new ones. You have been kind to me…. You have treated me with the kindness, dignity, and respect — the love — that I very often did NOT deserve. And it has made me love you.

First Read: “This presidential contest is turning out to be more than a battle of Democrat vs. Republican, liberal vs. conservative, blue vs. red. Instead, yesterday’s dueling speeches by Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump on the Orlando shooting revealed it to be an even bigger fight over what kind of country the United States of America should be — open, inclusive and tolerant, or closed, divided and intolerant? That’s the choice.”

First Read says Sanders may have overplayed his hand: “Well, the 2016 primary season came to an end last night with Hillary Clinton beating Bernie Sanders in DC, 79%-21%. And it came to an end without Sanders conceding or endorsing Clinton, although the two met last night and released positive-sounding statements.”

“Here’s the reality: Sanders hasn’t played his hand well. Many of his demands from yesterday (wanting Debbie Wasserman Schultz out of the DNC, ending superdelegates, having more open primaries) seem small. By not conceding a race he trails by every measure possible, he seems even smaller. And smaller still is the real leverage he holds, especially after losing eight out of the last 11 contests, after Obama and Warren have already endorsed Clinton, and after polls show Clinton increasing her lead over Trump.”

“The irony here is that Sanders already won — he performed better than anyone imagined, and he already effectively moved Clinton and her campaign to the left. But one of the arts in politics is declaring victory after you’ve already won. But Sanders continues to march on… “

Rick Klein: “It was Orlando, of course, that drew the sharp reaction to Donald Trump by President Obama. But Obama’s speech Tuesday was a response to much more than that. He offered a repudiation of Trump’s policies and rhetoric. It was a denunciation of the last year of politics, and just about everything Trump has come to represent in the American electorate.”

“Trump himself marches on as if nothing has changed in the political landscape or calendar. Swap out ‘Lyin’ Ted’ for ‘Crooked Hillary’ – and strip away any recent polling references, of course – and a Trump speech from June could be mistaken for a Trump speech from March, or January, or maybe even last June. With little evidence that Trump is headed in the right direction – his unfavorable number reaching 70 percent in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll – this week is shaping up to be another rough one for the presumptive Republican nominee. And with a president now engaged in the fight, there could be more to come along those same lines.”

Over 120 GOP National Security Leaders wrote an open letter about Donald Trump’s candidacy.

We the undersigned, members of the Republican national security community, represent a broad spectrum of opinion on America’s role in the world and what is necessary to keep us safe and prosperous. We have disagreed with one another on many issues, including the Iraq war and intervention in Syria. But we are united in our opposition to a Donald Trump presidency.

Mark Schmitt asks: Is the Sanders Agenda Out of Date? For example:

Where Mr. Sanders talks about “redistribution” of wealth from “the billionaires” to the middle- and low-income classes through high tax rates, others, such as the economists at the Economic Policy Institute, have focused more on what is sometimes called “predistribution,” wages and the conditions of work. They would reduce the gains at the top — such as by putting some meaningful constraints on executive pay — but also make sure that workers got a greater share of the profits, not only in the form of money, but also time, flexibility and predictable scheduling. If the initial distribution of benefits and money is badly skewed, it will be hard to use tax and transfer policies alone to redistribute it.

Markos Moulitsas has issues with one of Bernie Sanders’ demands, that for open primaries. I personally am fine with a lot of reform in this area, like moving the registration deadline up to a month before the election (some states, like New York, have the deadline six months before the primary). I am fine with the primary being open to Democrats and true unaffiliated Independents (frack you Green party). But Kos disagrees:

[T]he idea that it is “incomprehensible” that non-Democrats get to choose the Democratic nominee is, well, incomprehensible.

There is no point to a political party unless that party can decide for itself who represents it. It costs nothing to register as a Democrat (or Republican). No one even knows which party you register under. The only reason to register as an independent is because you think you are too good or pure or uncorrupted to be a member of a party. And if that’s the case? Good for you! We are all duly impressed. So shiny and perfect!

But fuck you, you don’t get to pick our candidates.

I don’t walk into a Shriners meeting, tell them they all suck and I hate their fez hats and cool stupid little parade cars, then demand a say in who leads the organization. That would be absurd and I’d be laughed out of the room. So why would anyone think differently about political parties? Yeah, I’m laughing Bernie’s idea out of the room.

You want a say in who a party nominates, join it. If you are too cool to join it, then you are too cool to have a say. Simple. Period. End of story.

Of course, Sanders’ list doesn’t include caucuses, which are an abomination of democracy and dramatically depressed turnout (and I wrote that piece before the Nebraska and Washington non-binding primaries, which had dramatically bigger turnout than the caucuses—even though they did not matter). I wonder why the guy who insisted on everyone voting would suddenly clamp down when discussing those undemocratic caucuses?

You wonder where I get my foul mouth? And I may change my mind because he makes a damn good anti-purist point. And you know how much I hate purists.

Josh Marshall:

There’s no magic to Trump’s political showmanship. The magic we saw through the Spring was a unique bond, a sort of mindmeld of white backlash and derp Trump built on an inspired intuition into the mind of the base of the Republican party. Provocation and offense didn’t hurt Trump because … he was preaching to an audience that yearned for both as positive goods. Campaigning in front of a general election audience today it’s all working quite differently. Over the last two days I heard report after report from our team on Capitol Hill about Senators who were refusing to answer questions about Trump, simply walking away when asked about him, or in a growing number of cases, after his harrowing and unhinged speech on Monday, openly attacking him. […]

A month ago Republican elected officials were unenthusiastically but resolutely rallying around Trump. Since then they’ve slowly been reduced to a public and political version of a family dealing with a hopeless addict or a degenerate gambler. They keep saying, insisting he’ll change, only to have him provide more evidence he can’t, won’t and has no intention to. Their very indulgence seems to prompt more unbridled behavior.

The disgraceful way Trump handled the hours after the Orlando atrocity seems to have confirmed for many Republicans that Trump will never change or pivot or whatever other phrase we’re now using. It’s not an act. It’s him. How this couldn’t have been clear months ago is a topic for the psychology of denial and wishful thinking. But now it seems clear. […]

The question is how long this can last. Pretty much daily, major Republican leaders don’t just disagree with Trump but denounce him in pretty round terms, even as they remain at least nominal endorsers of his candidacy and accept him as the leader of their party. That is entirely unprecedented in modern American political history.

It doesn’t seem sustainable.

Senator Ron Johnson (R-WI), engaged in what looks like a losing battle with former Sen. Russ Feingold, is the canary in a coal mine on this front. Johnson is the least shrewd endangered Republican Senator up for reelection this year. He got behind Trump early and left GOP lobbyists heads shaking when he told them he planned to ride the Garland blockade to victory. He’s not the sharpest tool in the Senate GOP shed. When he’s running from Trump, in a state that is at the center of the ‘Trump break out in the industrial midwest’ election model, you know there’s trouble.

Jeff Greenfield: “What’s emerged in recent days, however, is something we have never seen before. The hard questions about the character and temperament of the presumptive Republican nominee are coming from within his own party at precisely the time when the most important piece of business for a nominee is consolidation of that party. The weekend gathering that Romney hosted is yet one more measure of just how unmoored his candidacy is from anything remotely familiar in American politics.”

“In a normal intraparty contest, the fights usually take familiar forms: who best represents the party; whose ideas resonate, whose prescriptions are sound, or flawed; who has the experience (or the fresh ideas) that best serve the party. The disputes can be intense—think of Walter Mondale deriding Gary Hart’s new ideas campaign of 1984 by asking, ‘Where’s the beef?’ or George H.W. Bush labeling Ronald Reagan’s ideas ‘voodoo economics,’ or Hillary Clinton in 2008 deriding Barack Obama’s promises of change.”

“Rarely, however, does a candidate take on an intraparty foe on questions of character.”

“I’m not often critical of the media, but I am this year. And it’s driven mostly by television, and ratings. They never really vetted Bernie Sanders, and to this day have not vetted Donald Trump. Hillary Clinton? Oh my God. No human being in history has been more vetted.”

— Former Minnesota Gov. Arne Carlson (R), quoted by City Pages, announcing his support for Hillary Clinton who he said is a “very kind, a very good person.”