Wednesday Open Thread [7.6.2016]

Toddlers need easy and open access to guns, otherwise…TYRANNY!

Donald Trump has made a big deal out of barring Muslims from entering the United States on the basis that some might be terrorists sneaking in to stage attacks. But the real front line in protecting Americans’ safety may be much closer to home.

America’s own playpens.

According to the Washington Post, our nation’s nurseries are housing more than just unbearable levels of cuteness: Twenty-three people have been shot by toddlers in the U.S. since the start of 2016 — exactly 23 more than have been shot by Muslim terrorists over the same period.

 

DD probably posted this poll awhile back, but it looks like John McCain is definitely not a shoo-in for re-election to the Senate:

The advocacy group MoveOn commissioned the study by the North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling. They interviewed nearly 750 Republican, Democrat and independent Arizona voters. Forty-three percent said they’d support Kirkpatrick if the general election was held today, while 41 percent would choose McCain.

In addition, 44 percent of the respondents said they’re less likely to vote for McCain after his endorsement of presumptive Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.

It’s all about the coattails, baby.

Nate Silver posts some interesting data this morning re: the Presidential polling numbers. As he has presented them, Trump is underperforming Romney in Red States:

Romney won these states by an average of 16 percentage points in 2012, weighted by their turnout. By contrast, Trump leads them by an average of only 7 percentage points, a net swing of 9 points toward Clinton. She’s competitive in a few of these states, such as Georgia, Arizona and — more exotically — Utah and Kansas. If you saw polls from these states only, they’d be suggestive of a double-digit landslide against Trump.

Clinton is slightly outperforming Obama in Purple States:

In the swing states, however, the numbers look more like the final results from 2012, when Obama beat Romney by 3.7 percentage points nationally and by slightly more than that in the swing states. Clinton is outperforming Obama in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan. She’s underperforming him in Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. And she’s running basically level with him in the other states, such as Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Clinton is slightly underperforming Obama in Blue States:

Finally, we have the blue states, which I define as everything bluer than New Mexico in 2012. (Oregon is the reddest blue state.) Clinton leads by 19.1 percentage points in those on average, so Trump is probably dreaming if he expects to put states such as California and New York into play. Still, that’s slightly behind the 21.5 percentage point advantage that Obama had on average in these states in 2012.

So the net seems to be that as of now Clinton still holds the advantage in the Electoral College and probably in the popular vote. I do wonder if this data starts to point to an enthusiasm problem for BOTH parties, though.

Elizabeth Warren made a speech a week or so back that hasn’t gotten a ton of attention. Apologies if this is a repeat here. This speech extended her usual critique of big banks to the entire economy:

The concentration problem—and particularly the idea of “too big to fail” in the financial sector—gets a lot of attention. But the problem isn’t unique to the financial sector. It’s hiding in plain sight all across the American economy.

In the last decade, the number of major U.S. airlines has dropped from nine to four. The four that are left standing—American, Delta, United, and Southwest—control over 80% of all domestic airline seats in the country. And man, are they are hitting the jackpot now. Last year those four big airlines raked in a record $22 billion in profits. Eighteen billion alone came from fees for baggage and legroom and pay toilets. Ok, the last one was a joke, but what have passengers received in return for their higher costs? Fewer flights and worse service. Airline complaints rose 30 percent just from 2014 to 2015.

The list goes on. A handful of health insurance giants—including Anthem, Blue Cross Blue Shield, United Healthcare, Aetna, and Cigna—control over 83 percent of the country’s health insurance market.

Three drug stores—CVS, Walgreen’s, and Rite Aid—control 99% of the drug stores in the country.

Four companies control nearly 85% of the U.S. beef market, and three produce almost half of all chicken.

Some people argue that concentration can be good because big profits encourage competitors to get into the game. This is the perfect stand-on-your-head-and-the-world-looks-great argument. It says that there’s no competition today, but maybe there will someday be competition. The truth is pretty basic—markets need competition now. So I want to talk about five reasons to be concerned about the decline of competition.

It is worth following the link to read the entire text of her comments.

President Obama campaigned with Hillary Clinton in NC yesterday and I think that watching Obama campaign for her is going to be the most engaging part of this campaign.

Today starts our heat wave. Be sure to take care of yourselves out there and check on people around you to make sure they are staying cool and hydrated.

What interests you today?