Wednesday Open Thread [7.13.16]

You know, I ask you to watch this speech from former President George W. Bush yesterday. It was good, and I give credit to him for it. It’s short, but he talks of empathy, of too often judging groups by their worst examples and of judging ourselves by our best intentions. I think it might have been the best thing he has ever said. Also, do you think he has dyed his hair? LOL.

And as soon as I offer some praise, he acts like this:

And then here is the President’s speech. Watch the whole thing.

And then here is Bernie endorsing Hillary and Hillary’s speech immediately after (which was one of her better speeches this campaign). It was as if I had written the endorsement speech myself, and I give much credit to the Senator for writing and delivering it. Yes, I have, in Dana’s words, trashed the Senator throughout the campaign, much as Dana and others have trashed Hillary. But it is time to move on, to let it go (cue Frozen soundtrack), and to come together. And thanks to Hillary and Bernie’s combined efforts in reaching agreement on the platform, we have the beginnings of a Democratic juggernaut that shall obliterate all Republicans.

“In an apparent sign that Senator Elizabeth Warren will not be named Hillary Clinton’s running mate, Ms. Warren was invited by Mrs. Clinton’s campaign on Tuesday to deliver a prime-time address on the first night of the Democratic convention this month — a marquee speaking slot but one that is earlier than vice-presidential picks typically appear,” the New York Times reports.

“Such nominees usually speak later in the convention week to build anticipation for the top of the ticket.”

“Two Democrats briefed on the invitation to Mrs. Warren, however, cautioned that Mrs. Clinton had not yet made a decision about a running mate and that asking Ms. Warren to take the stage on the first night did not preclude her from being tapped as the vice-presidential nominee.”

The Democratic convention will be a peaceful showcase, now that there will be no platform fight at the DNC. Ed Kilgore:

It obviously didn’t get as much attention as his endorsement of Hillary Clinton earlier today, but Bernie Sanders also made it clear he was very pleased with the compromises worked out on the Democratic platform. The final shoe dropped this afternoon when the Sanders campaign confirmed to the Washington Post’s Greg Sargent that it would not be backing any minority reports when the platform is formally adopted at the convention.

And so we come full circle. Back in March it seemed there could be that rarest of phenomena, a contested convention, at the Republican Convention, while the Democratic convention looked to be a tightly scripted Clinton infomercial. Then, when Trump nailed down his nomination before Clinton was assured of hers, the drama drained out of Cleveland and back into Philly, where Sanders was promising a fight to the bitter end.

Now Philly’s back on course to proceed as a “normal” convention, with the nominee and her rival happily joining hands beneath the smiling visages of the 42nd and 44th presidents and a host of other elected officials and celebrities. The only mystery now involves the vice-presidential nominee’s identity, and we’ll know that soon enough.

Josh Rogin at the Washington Post writes that President Obama plans major nuclear policy changes in his final months:

President Obama announced his drive to reduce the role of nuclear weapons and eventually rid the world of them in his first major foreign policy speech, in Prague in 2009. In his first years, he achieved some successes, such as the New START treaty with Russia, the Nuclear Security Summits and the controversial Iran deal. But progress waned in the past year as more pressing crises commanded the White House’s attention. Now, the president is considering using the freedom afforded a departing administration to cross off several remaining items on his nuclear wish list.[…]

“It’s pretty clear the Prague agenda has stalled,” said Joe Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund, which supports groups advocating for nuclear nonproliferation. “There isn’t anything that the president does that isn’t criticized by his opponents, so he might as well do what he wants. He’s relishing his last days in office.”

Scott Lemieux at The New Republic asks why Did Obama Do So Well at the Supreme Court?

The last time a Democratic president successfully passed an ambitious progressive agenda with a Republican-controlled Supreme Court, the result was a constitutional crisis. The Court of the FDR era struck down several major New Deal statutes, leading to a proposed court-packing plan and the Court’s swing vote abruptly changing his mind about those decisions (this was then followed by a wave of Democratic nominees that quickly solidified the New Deal constitutional order). Unlike FDR, Obama was not able to change the median vote of the Court. While both of the justices he replaced were Republican nominees, John Paul Stevens and David Souter were both stalwart liberal votes by the time they retired. And yet, despite some major defeats, the Roberts Court left Obama’s domestic agenda mostly intact, while delivering the Democratic coalition some major victories it would not have been able to win any other way, most notably on abortion and LGBT rights.

Rick Klein: “If there is a new Donald Trump, this might be the moment for him to enter. Will Trump do what virtually everyone around him is advising as the prudent, smart, and sensible thing – uniting the Republican Party on the eve of his formal nomination? Or will Trump … be Trump? That’s the choice in front of him as he considers his finalists in the vice-presidential sweepstakes, a process that’s looked like a Trumpian endeavor only if you compare it to the bland public process being employed by Hillary Clinton.”

“Specifically, Trump knows that the easy call is Mike Pence, a Midwestern governor with House leadership experience and strong bonds with religious conservatives and GOP-aligned advocacy groups. Choosing retired Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn might cause a floor fight over Trump’s selection. Newt Gingrich and Chris Christie carry their own baggage with segments of the party, their personal relationships with the candidate aside. Trump may be bored by the choices in front of him, particularly the one advisers and party regulars are gravitating toward as the veepstakes winds down. But, at this critical moment, will Trump let Trump be Trump?”

Matt Yglesias says Hillary will not suffer from Agenda Exhaustion, which tends to plague political parties when they are in power for long periods:

Clinton’s cupboard is full of popular, moderately liberal ideas:

• Spend more money on infrastructure.
• Ban employment discrimination against LGBTQ Americans.
• Implement universal background checks before people buy guns.
• Raise the federal minimum wage.
• Provide tax credits to defray the cost of child care. […]

The circumstances do not seem very favorable for Clinton to enact enormous, historically consequential policy changes the way Obama has. That’s a dark side of mean reversion. But the upside is that historically significant policy change tends to be controversial and often unpopular. The circumstances of 2009-’10 pushed Obama to attempt ambitious legislation that courted overreach and blowback. Clinton, with more modest horizons, stands a good chance of having a moderately successful, moderately popular term.

From Clinton’s speech yesterday, and from her campaign to date, I’d say Yglesias is rather conservative (not in political terms but in expectations). If there is a Democratic Congress, that is the four of the five things in his list will be done on January 21.

Speaker Paul Ryan isn’t doing so hot — even with likely Republican voters in his district, according to a recent poll. As his GOP primary opponent puts it, ““Paul Ryan is the most open borders, pro-Wall Street, anti-worker member of Congress in either party,” Paul Nehlen said during a Saturday press conference, which was held in front of Ryan’s border wall surrounding his Janesville mansion. “Everything that Americans despise about their government, Paul Ryan represents…Can you name one time when Paul Ryan fought as hard for you and your family as he’s fought for corporate America?” Nehlen asked…The Nehlen campaign notes that Ryan’s 43 percent “represents a drop of more than 30 points since the Nehlen campaign began polling likely Republican primary voters earlier in the year.”

The five legacies of the Bernie Sanders campaign.

The vote totals don’t tell the story alone. Sometime over the course of a 14-month campaign, nine Democratic debates, and what seemed like a never-ending number of town hall forums, Sanders somehow crossed the barrier from obscure Vermont senator to genuine cultural sensation.

Nearly every announcement he makes now prompts dozens of stories. His face has been all over late-night television. He’s become an international celebrity, inspired a clothing line and a dating app, and gotten an audience with the pope.

Most importantly, Sanders’s big ideas — the “political revolution,” “democratic socialism,” the cry to take on the “millionaire and billionaire class” — have been injected into the American political vocabulary as those of few other candidates ever have.

Nobody knows exactly what kind of lasting impact Sanders’s candidacy will have on the Democratic Party. But for this campaign cycle at least, he’s fundamentally reinvented what almost everyone assumed what was possible.

Here’s a look back at five ways Bernie Sanders changed the story of 2016.

Newt Gingrich and Fox News have agreed to part ways. Which can mean only one thing…

Fox News has cancer.

— Ken Schultz (@kenthinguy) July 12, 2016

@SueinRockville @T4booboo @frangeladuo @SMShow @TwinmomSue @Frankie78209 @DGComedy @Deanofcomedy @Deanofcomedy pic.twitter.com/bFOdq0mvqN

— Kevin L. Dennis (@kevldennis) July 12, 2016