Friday Open Thread [7.15.16]
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–CBS News/NY Times–Clinton 40, Trump 40
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–Economist/YouGov–Clinton 45, Trump 43
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–Associated Press-GfK–Clinton 40, Trump 36, Johnson 6, Stein 2
NATIONAL–PRESIDENT–McClatchy/Marist–Clinton 42, Trump 39
PENNSYLVANIA–PRESIDENT–NBC/WSJ/Marist–Clinton 45, Trump 36
OHIO–PRESIDENT–NBC/WSJ/Marist–Clinton 39, Trump 39
IOWA–PRESIDENT–NBC/WSJ/Marist–Clinton 42, Trump 39
IOWA–PRESIDENT–Gravis–Clinton 42, Trump 40
WISCONSIN–PRESIDENT–Marquette–Clinton 45, Trump 41
COLORADO–PRESIDENT–FOX News–Clinton 44, Trump 34
COLORADO–PRESIDENT–Gravis–Clinton 43, Trump 41
VIRGINIA–PRESIDENT–FOX News–Clinton 44, Trump 37
MICHIGAN–PRESIDENT–Gravis–Clinton 48, Trump 41
FLORIDA–PRESIDENT–NBC/WSJ/Marist–Clinton 44, Trump 37
NORTH CAROLINA–PRESIDENT–NBC/WSJ/Marist–Clinton 44, Trump 38
VIRGINIA–PRESIDENT–NBC/WSJ/Marist–Clinton 44, Trump 35
COLORADO–PRESIDENT–NBC/WSJ/Marist–Clinton 43, Trump 35
Gov. Mike Pence (R) “still has not filed the necessary paperwork to withdraw himself from the governor’s race that would allow him to run for vice-president,” the Weekly Standard reports.
Pence’s team has until noon on Friday to file the papers. What happens after that deadline is unclear.
.@newtgingrich: "We should…test every person here who is of a Muslim background, & if they believe in shariah they should be deported."
— Fox News (@FoxNews) July 15, 2016
Gingrich also tosses out the 1st A, saying "anybody who goes on a website favoring" terrorist groups, "that should be a felony."
— Alexandra Jaffe (@ajjaffe) July 15, 2016
So, "tear up the First Amendment" is his response to a terror attack that happened 4000 miles away. https://t.co/6d8yBrFCVC
— daveweigel (@daveweigel) July 15, 2016
Republicans really are cowards when it comes to terrorism. Not mention explicit racists and fascists.
According to CNN, Donald Trump asked Mike Pence to be his running mate early Thursday evening and Pence accepted, but (as the Indiana governor is surely learning) even the clearest decision is always up for negotiation to Trump. Just hours later, the candidate told Fox News he has yet to make up his mind about who he’s taking to the election, saying, “I’ve got three people that are fantastic” and “I haven’t made my final, final decision.”
My God. He is going to pick General Flynn or Gingrich now and look even more the fool. If I were Pence I would tell Donald to go fuck himself.
The Washington Post says Trump’s VP process has spun out of control: “At some point, Trump’s choice of a running mate will be announced. But it will take some time to sort out the events of the past few days.”
“Was this a process that revealed indecision on the part of a candidate who has tried to project decisiveness and strength? Was it one that revealed continuing tensions inside a campaign that has been riven by staff differences? Or was it merely an aggressive media eager to break a big story that got ahead of events and created confusion when little actually existed? Or was it some combination of all of them?”
GOP platform says laws must adhere to Christianity, Bible taught in public schools. So they're now basically Taliban https://t.co/gkmZXlvzcw
— Reza Aslan (@rezaaslan) July 13, 2016
Tim Tebow has backed out of being a speaker at the GOP convention. I know, you are DEVASTATED by this news. It looks like Trump is just putting people on a list without their consent.
Please read @JayCaruso's excellent piece in @NRO on how a habit of conservative intransigence delivered us Trump: https://t.co/7zAqWTtFgT
— Jeff B/DDHQ (@EsotericCD) July 14, 2016
Nate Silver says Pence is unknown but better than any alternative: “To a national audience, Pence is almost entirely unknown; this morning’s CBS News/New York Times poll put his favorability rating at 5 percent against 8 percent unfavorable, with 86 percent of registered voters either being undecided or not knowing enough about Pence to have an opinion. A Marist College survey, meanwhile, puts him at 12 percent favorable and 21 percent unfavorable. That would present some risk to Trump, because there would be a scramble between the news media and the campaigns to define Pence in the eyes of the electorate. Given Clinton’s greater staffing and financial resources, it’s possible that Pence could stumble out of the gate.”
“And yet, several of the alternatives reportedly on Trump’s VP shortlist, especially Newt Gingrich and Chris Christie, are both widely known and widely disliked by the general electorate. So if Pence isn’t quite a risk-free choice, he’d be better than one who was guaranteed to be unpopular.”
I bet the Pence "source" was someone in the campaign trying to force the hand of an indecisive Trump.
— Jon Lipe (@JonLipe) July 14, 2016
When asked about Pence possibly being VP, White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest expertly trolled him.
Earnest lauded Indiana Gov. Mike Pence (R) for deciding to expand Medicaid in his state under ObamaCare.
“I know that Gov. Pence did do some important work with the administration to expand Medicaid in his state,” Earnest told reporters when asked what Obama thinks of the governor. “That’s something President Obama has been encouraging Democratic and Republican governors across the country to do.”
The spokesman added, however, he would “leave it to the individual candidates to determine who they believe would best complement their skills and could lead their party.”
That’s the kiss of death in some circles.
Glad Trump didn't build his image around being good at selecting people for jobs, cause otherwise this waffling would be embarrassing.
— Alex Seitz-Wald (@aseitzwald) July 15, 2016
Former Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) told a conservative radio host that Donald Trump “gets and understands religious liberty,” the Huffington Post reports.
Bachmann shared an anecdote: “He even said, ‘I don’t understand, when I was growing up, everybody said Merry Christmas. Even my Jews would say Merry Christmas.’ New York City, there are a lot of Jews, and they would even say Merry Christmas. Why can’t we even say Merry Christmas anymore?’”
Bachmann added that Trump had “1950s sensibilities” and “1950s common sense,” and warned that Hillary Clinton would bring “certain destruction” and “catastrophic decline” and a “godless United States that will walk into certain catastrophe.”
What Indiana Journalists Want You To Know About Mike Pence https://t.co/XxVtrpSd6M
— Joe Strupp (@JoeStrupp) July 14, 2016
As the video of the memorial goes viral, and many commentators scold Bush for inappropriate behavior, this proud liberal must say…enough.
I agreed with few—really none—of George W. Bush’s policies; he must live with himself for lying the country into the Iraq war while his economic malpractice led to the great recession. But the attacks on his method of mourning strike me as cynical and churlish—the general mood in the country right now. I felt the same way when much of the conservative media lit into Bill Clinton for laughing at the 1996 funeral of his Commerce Secretary Ron Brown, who tragically died in an airline crash while serving his country.
I like to offer contrary viewpoints sometimes. I thought Bush was inappropriate, but point taken Wallis.
In new #Heartland poll @HillaryClinton leads @realDonaldTrump 11-1 among Obama approvers; he leads 10-1 disapprovers https://t.co/kRdEywYDvT
— Ronald Brownstein (@RonBrownstein) July 14, 2016
You guys have been at this longer than I have. 8 of those polls at the top are likely statistical ties so, predictions on how they’ll shift post-conventions? Because right now, those numbers look frightening.
Polls are meaningless, except that they give press fodder for horse race stories. It is all about the electoral college. The best site for watching that is 538. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/
…where Clinton still has a good lead, but I’m not crazy about the trend line.
Clinton will get a good convention bounce. Trump might too but there is always the potential he will screw up the convention and expose how bankrupt he and the Republicans are. The RNC convention is focusing on the negative so any bounce they get may take the form of a dip for Hillary.
Bachmann with the 3-second memory of a goldfish:
Bachmann shared a Merry Christmas anecdote: “He even said, ‘I don’t understand, when I was growing up, everybody said Merry Christmas. Even my Jews would say Merry Christmas.’ New York City, there are a lot of Jews, and they would even say Merry Christmas. Why can’t we even say Merry Christmas anymore?’”
She said Merry Christmas 4 times in that reference to a Donald Trump quote on Merry Christmas and why you can’t say Merry Christmas.
Clinton is going to run to not lose. That’s risky, because it will allow Trump to build up a lot of momentum. It is basically going to be a sick roller coaster ride.
I’ll probably be going on a complete media blackout. After the events in Nice France, I’m already at about 50%.
More than 100 tech execs sign a letter against Trump:
Brian…
Polls are lagging indicators, especially national polls. So last week, Hillary had a bad week, even if she was exonerated by the FBI. The polls this week are reflecting that. You are also going to see a bounce for Trump from his VP pick and convention, unless both are violent shitshows. So next week, polls may be bad.
Where the action is at, and where you need to pay your attention to, is state polls. I do not consider the state polls in that list frightening, especially in PA, NC, VA, CO and FL.
It gets very lonely to be one of a very few that gets it. Donald Trump is such a monster and train wreck of a presidential train wreck, considerations like bounces from vp picks or national conventions shouldn’t factor into his position in the polls. This discussion about the closeness of the race shouldn’t even be occurring. But it is. Now what is the deeper significance of that? But perhaps asking that question is just too heretical and, therefore, scary.
“More than 100 tech execs sign a letter against Trump”
Of course. Trump proposes to end the tech industry’s pet program: the H1-B visa and other practices that sell out US tech workers. Even a stopped clock…
Anybody care to comment on where Hillary stands on importing foreign tech workers? Hint: Expansion of H1-B is included in most “comprehensive” immigration reform proposals.
” This discussion about the closeness of the race shouldn’t even be occurring. ”
That’s what the hare said about the tortoise in his pre-race ESPN interview.
rolling my eyes at Dana.
“It gets very lonely to be one of a very few that gets it.”
You have my deepest sympathies, Dana, at having to shoulder such a difficult burden.
DD, so what is it?
The vast Bernie Bro /Right wing conspiracy keeping Clinton around 40% everywhere? Do you actually see/acknowledge the closeness or are you writing it off as fake.
I’m genuinely interested…. because, as someone who is REALLY trying to get excited … or at least “not in total despair” about the whole thing, this is frightening.
Will this comment get an eye-roll, furthering my concerns that you’re will-fully blinding yourself to some horrible, horrible truth? Find Out Next Time!!!!!!!!!!!
I don’t have any philosophical objection to the H1-B program if the intent and regulations were being followed. But when companies like KPMG (#36 in the top 100 H1-B sponsors) use the program to hire accountants and auditors (1107 of them) that is problem.
The program probably has done some good over the years, but it’s now morphed itself into a program we can and should live without. We do not have a shortage of financial analysts in this country. The program should be cancelled. A new program that is severely restricted would serve the nation better.
Well, first off, her numbers are not down around 40 everywhere. In most places, she is in the mid 40’s. And in most places, Trump is in the mid to high 30’s. If there are frightening numbers in these polls, they are Trump’s, not Clinton’s.
Second, the reason for the dip in Clinton’s numbers this week is a combination of the FBI news turning off some independents, Republicans and Democrats combined with a small BernieorBust faction.
You want to feel better: It was the worst week of her campaign news wise, and the polls show her still leading very important swing states by 7-8 points.
So everyone needs to relax. Clinton’s numbers will improve. Remember, this time in 2012 Romney was leading, and McCain-Palin led in September.
Even the rumor of tightening polls can have a very positive effect. My biggest fear is that would-be Clinton voters will take a “she’s got this” attitude in November and Trump voters will show up in droves. A tight race gives voters a motivation to vote.
Supreme Court – Motivation !
Trump is terrible – Motivation !
Race is tight – Motivation !
Clinton is great – (aw… shucks)
The only one that really motivates is ?????
And you also have to remember, the media wants a close race for ratings. So they will craft their polls to produce it. How? Well, look at the Quinnipiac and Rasmussen polls. They undersample Democrats and minorities in relation to their registration and turnout figures to produce a white and more Republican electorate, which then gives you closer poll results. Why do think everyone goes to the internal cross tabs first to figure out if the poll is legit.
I don’t think anyone knows what’s going to happen. World events, dislike and distrust with government, and much more may decide the race. Sec Clinton is who she is. Some people like her and some don’t like her. I personally think her negatives are far too high and that makes her less than an ideal D candidate in this cycle. I do not think there is much she can do about that at this point. She is a conventional candidate at a time when many in the country seem to be looking for an alternative. Scarily that alternative is now Mr Trump.
Great points.
@lg “A tight race gives voters a motivation to vote.”
The press is going to pretend it’s tighter than it really is.
If you consider the states that today polled 7% or more in her favor (CO, VA, FL, PA, MI) and add in just the “safe” blue states (according to RCP or PEC), that still enough for a win. She can win without Ohio or Iowa or Wisconsin,…
In other words, it’s not panic time.
Let me know when you raise the “okay to panic” flag.
What’s this panic flag going to look like? I need specific details. Color, pattern, shape?
Biggest motivator for me in November is now Supreme Court nominations. Supporting down ticket progressicrats too, but this is Delaware. Townsend is our only hope in that area.
Didn’t I hear at some point that Carper wasn’t going to run for reelection when his current term is up? Or am I making that up?
You are making that up.
and the people of Indiana rejoice!!!
In 2008 and 2012 we heard the exact same thing – Obama is going to blow it! He’s going to lose! Look at the polls!
I’m not saying to be complacent. The country is divided so Trump was always going to have a rock solid 35 – 40% base. I’m with DD and Jason. Polls this far out are meaningless. National polls are pretty much always useless. The election is won in the electoral college. My advice: Watch the state polls, ignore the rest.
I thought the yellow snake flag was the panic flag?
I watch the composite polling over at 538 and the composite polling over at Sam Wang’s Princeton Election Consortium. The media reports are less about polling data and meaning than they are about polling noise.
How many more times does everyone need to be wrong about Trump and his chances of winning before you (or lots of you) realize you are underestimating him?
It isn’t about underestimating him, it is about responding to real data and not a hair on fire media narrative.
That hair-on-fire narrative got him the nomination.
Not the hair on fire media polling narrative, which is what I thought the topic of conversation was here.
It’s an open thread. I’ll discuss whatever I please.
Ive seen every political voice I respect be proven wrong dozens of times in the last year. Everything was supposed to mean Trump was done…. remember all the times people here said “he is disqualified”? and yet….
. So your conventional wisdom and analysis mean nothing to me. All you have is “you’re wrong” “polls mean nothing” (unless, if course those polls show Clinton in the lead for now).
I’m literally sick to my stomach seeing all this complacency and arrogance that “we” will win. Mark my words the Media will fawn over his “level-headed” choice of Pence and all his fascist ranting will be forgiven by the Media.
You can certainly discuss what you want and you can certainly look plenty peevish when you are reminded that you are an outlier in your own damn conversation.
If we are talking about the polling data that has been the subject of most of the comments of this thread, you may want to rethink your response. There is still little complacency as far as I can tell. But there is plenty of refusal to be involved with the media drama.
Data is meaningful. CNN chyrons are not.
Your arrogant dismissal is meaningless to me.
but to sum up this “discussion” .. “polling data is meaningless… here is some polling data to show Clinton will win LONG LIVE POLLING DATA.
The election wont be held today… it will be held after a few more months of bad mistakes on Clinton’s part, and media fillating of Trump.
I guess the good thing is, nothing can make me feel worse than the gravity of our national situation does. So say what you want. Im already desperately hoping I am wrong…. Really the bright side is that things can only get better.
This “discussion” is an echo chamber. DL is quite literally the only forum I read that is so sure Clinton will win, that people who are concerned she wont are mocked and told “that isn’t what we’re talking about”. Fiddle on, friends. The empire is on fire.
Your clueless digressions here are the only thing that is a problem here and since you have this habit when called out for being wrong, I have no idea why we are even doing this.
But you aren’t reading Delaware Liberal if you are reading that everyone here is sure that Clinton will win. Many of the voices in this thread are telling you something important — and you haven’t engaged with what 538 or the PEC is doing well enough to throw that away. If you want to treat the media narrative as gospel, you are welcome to it. Just stop being annoyed that we won’t follow you down that rabbit hole.
Besides, I seem to remember people thinking that the media vetting of Bernie would be no big deal. But here you are, losing your shit over a narrative you saw in 2008 and in 2012 and is replaying itself here.
I said many times that the reason Trump won/was winning the nomination had to do with the other GOP candidates refusing to discuss their policies because they were basically the same as Trump’s and that they agreed with what he said, just not how he said it. I’ve also said many times that the press was going to make this a horse race no matter who the nominees were. It’s like people have forgotten the last two Presidential elections – especially 2012. If you followed Nate or Sam in 2012 you didn’t worry for a second. I’d suggest visiting them whenever panic sets in. 🙂
Go look at the cross tabs in the polls. Several of them are under sampling key demographics. I’ve asked again and again for someone to show me how Trump wins without the black, Hispanic, woman, Asian, LGBT, non-christian and college educated white men vote and all I get is panic, not data. Not all polls are created equal.
I think it may be dangerous to use 2008 or 2012 as the basis for conclusions in 2016. There is the possibility that 2016 is a completely different race.
I’ve always said that anything can happen in a two person race. That said, unless someone shows me how Trump drastically increases the white vote (that means doing significantly better than Romney in 2012) then the numbers aren’t adding up.
I fear three things: world events, people who just want change and people who just won’t vote for Hillary. I don’t have poll data but an underlying concern.
Anything can happen and nothing is over.
While these races may be different, I doubt that you will get that from a media that has a readymade narrative for this event. For instance, Obama won in two landslides where the media was insisting on extremely close races. If you were watching 538 or PEC, you saw that possibility of a landslide coming.
I agree. I wasn’t concerned in 2008 or 2012. This year feels very different and difficult to get your arms (and head) around.
You’re correct. It is different, Jen. Up until Trump the GOP denied their base was racist, bigoted, misogynistic homophobes. Now they can’t, since most of their base endorses Trump because of these traits (they sure aren’t with him due to his policies because he has none). Even those Rs against Trump don’t strongly take him to task on his racist, bigoted, misogynist, homophobic statements. So yeah, it’s different because the mask is off and we were right all along.
Show me a reputable poll that shows increased Hispanic, black, women, college educated men, etc. support and I’ll be concerned. Right now the math’s not there.
So now we know Christine O’Donnell’s inspiration:
Mike Pence used campaign funds to pay his mortgage — and it cost him an election
@p “Right now the math’s not there.”
But yet somehow it seems that we might be playing out the election plot line in “V for Vendetta”. One major event (even a deliberately orchestrated one), might be enough to change the math in a really bad way.
That Donald Trump is even close bespeaks the following about the Democratic Party:
1. The Democratic Party’s presumptive nominee has been in fact the presumptive nominee even before the primaries began. “It’s Hillary’s to lose.” Etc.
2. That the party’s primary and attendant propaganda program to front establishment preferences are very powerful and therefore insufficiently democratic for the tank and file.
3. That since it has been known for some times during this process that its presumptive nominee had high negatives and yet the party continued to front her indicates that it’s motivated by considerations that are at least as great if not greater than the obligation to prevail in the general election.
4. That these considerations include matters like legacy, and “it’s her/ his time this time,” etc, considerations (to repeat) that have at least as much precedence if not more than winning.
5. That it doesn’t actively seek out and encourage potentially strong candidates with low negatives to run but instead just goes with the “understood” establishment presumptive nominee. (This consideration shows this isn’t a Bernie didn’t win rant since others could have be fronted as well.)
6. That in this election in particular, when the Republicans are running a clearly certifiable lunatic with high negatives, the Democrats are content to make this race about something ignoble and totally uninspiring: our candidate has lower high negatives than theirs. This approach is especially inopportune when the House and Senate could be recaptured riding on the crest of nominee that had high positives.
That these considerations and factors are operating within the Democratic Party are ill. That not many Democrats see it indicate that acceptance and not critical self reflection are pervasive within the party.
@DG
1. Yea… So? She really is the best suited for the role.
2. In an ideal world it would be better. In a two party system, one party cannot afford to be weak.
3. The GOP would work fervently to raise the negatives of any Democratic candidate. They’ve been on the let’s-destroy-Hillary project for more than 25 years.
4. You’re thinking of the GOP, not the Dems.
5. I’d say that experience comes with negatives. Why were Gingrich’s negatives seen as so much higher than Pence’s. Answer: Because Pence hasn’t done anything. Gingrich has done a lot.
6. I think Hillary has been working to reduce her negatives. It’s a lot based on perception.. I mean really… Can you equate Hillary’s problems with email to Trump’s abject racism, xenophobia, and very dangerous foreign policy pronouncements??? The negatives aren’t even in the same universe (except to perhaps a rank misogynist).