Delaware Liberal

Thursday Open Thread [8.11.16]

Delaware Dem

WISCONSIN–PRESIDENT–Marquette–Clinton 52, Trump 37

Well, so much for that theory among some that Trump’s alleged populist appeal and anti-trade talk would win him the midwest. The talk among the punditry, both liberal and conservative, is that Trump would not only be competitive in Ohio and Pennsylvania, but he would be the unique Republican to put Michigan and Wisconsin in play. We’ve seen the double digit leads for Hillary in Pennsylvania and Michigan dispel that notion, and now a 15 point lead in Wisconsin. Ohio is still too close for comfort given recent polls, but the Midwest Republican Resurgence is not happening.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post digs through the latest Bloomberg national poll and finds a number which should set off alarms at Donald Trump’s campaign headquarters:

“Bloomberg asked people if they would consider voting for the other candidate. More than half — 51 percent — said that they could never support Donald Trump. That’s more than 9-in-10 of those who weren’t currently supporting him. By contrast, 44 percent said they could never support Clinton, a little less than 9-in-10 of those who didn’t plan to vote for her.”

First Read: “With yet another poll showing Hillary Clinton ahead of Donald Trump by double digits — this time from NBC|SurveyMonkey — Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has an important choice to make. Does he continue to block President Obama’s pick to fill the Supreme Court vacancy, Merrick Garland, and risk the possibility that a President Hillary Clinton could nominate someone much more liberal (and younger) instead? Or does he relent on the Garland blockade, realizing that it might be the best outcome for Senate Republicans — simply to turn the conversation away from Trump?”

“And it’s worth pointing out that Clinton running mate Tim Kaine didn’t 100% close the door on the possibility that Clinton might make her own Supreme Court pick if Republicans continue to block Garland.”

Playbook: “There is increasing concern in news and political circles that Donald Trump will not agree to the three slated presidential debates this fall, a historic break with political norms in the lead-up to the election. The three bouts — organized by the non-partisan Commission on Presidential Debates — are Sept. 26 at Hofstra University in New York, Oct. 9 at Washington University in St. Louis and Oct. 19 in Las Vegas. They are usually wonky and tightly scripted affairs, and offer the next true reset point in the race for the White House.”

“Debate moderators have not been announced, but Republican and Democratic sources, senior media executives and anchors in New York and Washington are casting serious doubt about whether Trump will agree to participate in the primetime events.”

First Read digs into the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll and offers five observations that are good news for Democrats:

President Obama’s job-approval rating now stands at 52%, up one point from last month. It’s his highest rating since his second inauguration in Jan. 2013.

Just 32% think the country is headed in the right direction, but that’s up 14 points in the past month (the July poll was taken in the aftermath of the violence in Dallas, Louisiana and Minnesota).

Democrats hold a four-point advantage in congressional preference, with 47% of voters wanting a Democratic-controlled Congress and 43% wanting a GOP-controlled one. It was 46%-46% in July’s poll.

60% of Democrats say they’re satisfied with Clinton as their nominee, versus 45% of Republicans who say that about Trump.

There are signs the nation is more optimistic and wants more continuity than the conventional wisdom suggests: 54% say they are mainly hopeful and optimistic about the country’s future, and 50% believe the nation should continue with Democrats in the White House, versus 48% who say it’s time for change.

The Washington Post says the House GOP’s gerrymander is not so daunting as it is seems.

After the 2010 Census, the Republican Party put in motion its plan to redraw congressional districts more favorable to conservative candidates. Whereas bipartisan gerrymandering creates safe districts for both parties, the GOP undertook partisan gerrymandering, which packs the other party’s voters into as few districts as possible and spreads out the gerrymandering party’s voters across many districts, each of which that party can win but often by uncomfortably narrow margins.

Pennsylvania illustrates this strategy. In the 2012 election, Democratic congressional candidates won about 75,000 more votes than did Republican candidates, but the GOP captured 13 of 18 seats. Four of the five Democratic districts had been packed with Democratic voters. The safest of these districts scored D+38 on the Cook Report’s Partisan Voter Index (PVI), which means that voters in this district backed President Obama in 2008-2012 by 38 percentage points more than the national electorate.

By contrast, the GOP currently holds four marginal districts, rated as R+2, R+1, or Even. Another six GOP districts are R+5 or R+6. The remaining three are R+9 or higher.

The Pennsylvania pattern holds up nationally, where the GOP holds numerous marginal districts. The chart below shows PVI ratings for all of the GOP’s House seats. Republicans hold 37 districts rated R+2 or lower and 18 at R+3 or R+4, for a total of 55 marginal districts. Democrats, by contrast, hold half as many.


If the Trump collapse and Clinton surge continue, they could reveal the perils of partisan redistricting. That strategy created so many marginal Republican districts that if the GOP loses the bulk of the seats at or below R+2, it would also lose its congressional majority. A catastrophe that claimed every GOP seat at or below R+4 would bring the GOP caucus close to the size of today’s House Democrats.

And right now, as you will see below, Hillary and the Dems are performing well enough to capture all seats R+5 and less.

Washington Post: “The pattern has repeated itself again and again. First come Trump’s attention-getting expressions. Then come the outraged reactions. The headlines follow. Finally, Trump, his aides and his supporters lash out at the media, accusing journalists of twisting his words or missing the joke. It happened last week, when Trump appeared to kick a baby out of a rally, then later insisted that he was kidding. It happened the week before, when he encouraged Russia to hack Clinton’s emails, then claimed he was just being sarcastic.”

“And with each new example, Trump’s rhetorical asides grow more alarming to many who hear them — and prompt condemnations from an ever-wider universe of critics.”

“Hillary Clinton is trouncing Donald Trump in several swing House districts, Democratic Party officials say in a new memo obtained by Politico that touts the party’s down-ballot prospects in November but does not predict they’ll capture the chamber.”

“The memo, which comes 90 days out from the election, says that Democrats intend to hitch their House opponents to Trump at every turn and misstep.”

Josh Kraushaar: “Re­pub­lic­an lead­ers are choos­ing to pre­tend that these dif­fer­ences don’t ex­ist, pre­fer­ring to na­ively pro­claim that Trump will em­brace Paul Ry­an’s con­ser­vat­ive agenda if he’s elec­ted pres­id­ent. That’s not what his voters signed up for. It’s why Trump’s rote es­pous­al of more-tra­di­tion­al GOP po­s­i­tions, such as his eco­nom­ic speech at the De­troit Eco­nom­ic Club on Monday, will fall flat.”

“More likely, he will con­tin­ue to use his out­size pub­lic plat­form to settle old scores. He might even try and launch his own tele­vi­sion net­work to broad­cast the pop­u­lism that pro­pelled his can­did­acy. He’s not go­ing away, and neither are his core voters. The only ques­tion is wheth­er more tra­di­tion­al GOP lead­ers have the cha­risma and cred­ib­il­ity to bring Trump par­tis­ans in­to a new-look GOP, or wheth­er his sup­port­ers will con­tin­ue to stir up trouble with­in the party.”

Byron York: “What has Hillary Clinton been doing while Donald Trump has been careening from one controversy to the next? She’s been traveling the country giving speeches about jobs, hammering Trump on the economy, and mostly avoiding press contact that could bring attention to her email scandal, the Clinton Foundation, or her record as Secretary of State. And then she talks more about jobs.”

“Clinton’s speeches are boring. They don’t make much news. But they’re in line with voter concerns three months away from the presidential election.”

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