My prediction market of choice is Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM) run out of the University of Iowa. It is the oldest and has been highly predictive over the years. More predictive than polls, anyway.
That’s why I want to know more about why traders are bidding up “Other” in the congressional control market. “Other” is an outcome that has now tied “RH\RS” (Republican House/Republican Senate). Obviously, I’m not surprised RH/RS is tanking, and that RH/DS is now the clear favorite. But what does the movement on “other” foretell? A Democratic Senate and deadlocked House?
Here is the graph:
Here is the complete breakdown of predicted outcomes based on share prices. You can read the average column as an expression of the probability of any given outcome. (e.g RH_DS trading at 0.424 is about a 42.4% probability assigned to that outcome :
