Our Prediction Percentage could well be down from recent years, especially with close races at the top of the ballot. Cassandra has written the City of Wilmington predictions, El Somnambulo the rest. Clip & save (or destroy, if we hit the electoral iceberg):
US Congress (D): A battle of divergent campaign strategies. The TV media campaigns of Lisa Blunt Rochester and Sean Barney could work–if casual voters who were going to vote anyway are influenced by the commercials and cast votes their way. However, in a low turnout primary where pretty much only the most committed voters come out, I like the grassroots campaign of Bryan Townsend to prevail. In fact, look for Townsend’s margin in the Newark area to be greater than that of Lisa’s in Wilmington.
Governor (R): The more I think about it (granted, I’m guilty of overthinking), I think Lacey Lafferty beats Colin Bonini. The Delaware Rethug Party is firmly in the hands of the Sussex wingnuts, Lafferty is a Sussex wingnut. And Bonini is still lazy. The fact that there are a couple of local Sussex R primaries doesn’t hurt Lafferty either.
Lt. Governor (D): It’s a three-way battle between Bethany Hall-Long, Kathleen McGuiness and Ciro Poppiti. I don’t see a realistic scenario for the other three candidates. Poppiti will need to come out of northern NCC and the City of Wilmington with a significant lead. Since BHL has Sussex roots, as one astute observer pointed out, she will at least hold her own in Sussex County, especially western Sussex, should win big in southern NCC, and should edge out McGuiness and Poppiti.
Insurance Commissioner (D): I wish that Navarro had run a more aggressive campaign and effectively challenged the truly dismal record of the incumbent. But he didn’t. I think Karen Weldin Stewart prevails among low-information voters, and wins. Hope I’m wrong.
Insurance Commissioner (R): Well, since the power base of what remains of the Republican Party is centered in Sussex County, I predict that the gay-hating George Parish defeats perennial loser Jeffrey Cragg. What a choice in the general…
Senate District 1 (D): Incumbent Harris McDowell easily defeats first-time challenger Joseph McCole.
Senate District 9 (D): DL-endorsed candidate Caitlin Olsen may well be the right candidate–but in the wrong district. John Walsh parlays a lifetime of contacts in the 9th to a primary win.
House District 7 (D): Incumbent Bryon Short big-timed the candidates who had filed by jumping back into this race after burning through scads of money in his failed congressional bid. There is still a lot of support for Brady, who represented Claymont in Dover over a decade ago. Short will prevail, but I think Brady gets over 40%. The big question: Does Short abandon the district for a second time for a spot in the Carney Administration? If so, he should pay for the cost of a special election out of his own pocket. He won’t.
House District 9 (D): Corporate trainer Rick Griffiths, who has the committee endorsement, should prevail against pastor, author, life motivational speaker, teacher, writer, and ‘Leader in her community and surrounding areas’ Monique Johns. However, and LG please correct me if I’m wrong, his campaign doesn’t fill me with confidence for the general election.
House District 10 (D): How clueless is Delusional Dennis Williams (the other one)? So clueless that he is running against Sean Matthews b/c of Sean’s commitment to education. Don’t believe me? From the News-Journal article on the race:
“I think Sean’s been a one-issue legislator,” Williams complained. “He is always looking to get more for teachers, new books, new buildings, pay increases. I guess that’s not surprising given that he is a teacher himself, but it is definitely a conflict of interest.”
Parents and teachers hate that!
As opposed to what Williams did: selling his leadership vote to Pete Schwartzkopf for a slot on the Bond Bill Committee. And we all have seen Matthews’ record on a wide range of bills. Matthews should, and deserves to, hasten Williams return to the Protack-type loser he was before 2008. He will.
House District 14: Don Peterson deserves the thanks of the entire progressive community. His challenge to Pete Schwartzkopf is every bit as worthy as Bryan Townsend’s challenge to Tony DeLuca in 2012. DeLuca and Schwartzkopf represent the worst that Dover has to offer. Here’s why I don’t think it will end the same way: DeLuca was basically a no-show in his district, and people noticed. Schwartzkopf has remained much more visible and involved. I hope that Peterson views this race as a beginning. Next time might be different. Or…he could take on Ernie Lopez, who just might have some problems of his own. For now, Schwartzkopf prevails.
House District 15 (D): Valerie Longhurst could well have a fight on her hands against a credible challenger. Unfortunately, James Burton has not demonstrated credibility during his previous two runs. Longhurst, say, 65-35.
House District 33 (R): I admit that I have no clue. A three-way R primary to replace Rep. Peterman, who basically didn’t show up his last two terms due to health issues. The voters didn’t mind. I’m gonna go with the good ol’ boy in the race, Charles Postles of Milford, a farmer and ‘Christian conservative’ over Morgan Hudson, who appears too young and too sane to get elected, and Harrington’s Robert Scott, who is from Harrington. State Senator Gary Simpson is backing Postles.
House District 35 (R): I look for marble-mouthed auctioneer Rep. David Wilson to prevail over challenger Bob Mitchell. Mitchell, however, is certainly capable of matching Wilson malaprop for malaprop. Check out his website.
New Castle County Executive (D):
Upset Special. Matt Meyer will never be accused of peaking too soon. In fact, for the first few months after his announcement, I wondered if he was running a serious campaign. But his grassroots campaign has taken off in the past few weeks, while Tom Gordon appears to have been caught flat-footed. Meyer has turned this into a referendum on Gordon and particularly into a referendum on Gordon’s ethics. Plus, I know that signs don’t vote, but at least here in Brandywine Hundred, the number of lawns with Meyer signs is astounding. The momentum is firmly on his side. I think he wins.
New Castle County Executive (R):
Mark Blake has run before, Barry Nahe hasn’t. Nahe is running on a platform of turning New Castle County into Silicon Valley, something that is not gonna happen. Blake wins this low-key primary handily.
New Castle County President (D):
Oy. Penrose Hollins (a) is running on a ticket with Tom Gordon and (b) remains among the least energetic candidates I have ever covered. Dave Roberts is well-regarded among people in county government who I respect, but his campaign remains invisible. Which leaves…gaack! Karen Hartley-Nagle. I think that low-information voters will lean towards her and that she will win. Yes, I’m serious. And depressed.
I’m sorry. I’m not gonna call the other Kent and Sussex County races. Other than to predict that serial low-life Mark Schaeffer will be rejected by the good voters of Sussex County Council District 3. In fact, I call that race for Irwin Burton. Or maybe Kevin Burdette. But not the other two. I’m sure of it. Almost. OK, I’ll pick Burdette.
City of Wilmington
This is going to be tough. Seriously. There is so much electoral energy in the city this season and everything that happens completely depends upon turnout. The marquis race in the city is the one for Mayor, of course, with a massive field of contenders. City Council also has a great many contenders, but I don’t think that there is quite as much interest in that set of races. Still.
Mayor — this is so hard to call. It’s going to be Williams, Purzycki, Kelley or Young. The others are just out of it. If the stars align, Williams and Purzycki will cancel each other out like matter and anti-matter. They are playing flip sides of the Campaigning for Us strategy — Williams mostly on Channel 28 (and likely in pulpits) while Purzycki is personally more visible in the places he feels have his votes. Purzycki has a campaign office within the city limits and has more money (that has been remarkably badly spent — the sign of the developer, I think). Williams is still mostly not visible. Both are working their own versions of the Race Card. I badly want neither of these plays to win.
I’m going to give the edge to Kelley and Young. It feels that Young has some real momentum right now and they’ve identified their voters. As in they have a real list. It’s down to GOTV. I’m calling it for Young. But this is also where my heart is, so take it for what it is worth. But it is going to be a nail-biter.
City Council President — uninspiring choices here too. Running are Hanifa Shabazz (4th District City Councilwoman), Justen Wright (at Large Councilman) and John McCafferty. No idea who McCafferty is. I’m calling this one for Shabazz. She’s been working hard at this and Wright isn’t really campaigning. Wright is the endorsed candidate of the Williams machine though. Shabazz has the advantage of not being Wright so as people look at the two of them, they are making the “lessor of two bad choices” deal.
City Treasurer — ugh, this race. Henry Supinski, who has been a steady and credible hand running this office for years is retiring. Running to replace him are Darius Brown (3rd District Councilman), Velda Jones-Potter (fired Williams Senior Advisor), Ken Matlusky. I think that Jones-Potter’s involvement in the Foxtail controversy should disqualify her. But I think she wins. I think that she has enough name recognition and there aren’t many people who care about the misuse of city resources here. Darius doesn’t have an especially good resume for this and wants this office to be more about technology, than stewardship of the city’s finances. Ken has the right background for this too. That is who I voted for. But I think that Jones-Potter wins and brings some voters for Williams voters with her. Which was the point of Ed Osborne drafting her for this race in the first place.
City Council:
2nd District is being contested by Trippi Congo and Kat Perkins. Kat is a longtime community leader running against a City Councilman who is most visible on his Facebook page. He does little to advance (or propose) ideas that will stabilize or move the City forward — meaning that his term in City Council has been quite uninspiring. Kat is working hard at reaching out to people in her district and if that District was interested in City Council representation that might help them, Kat would win. Unfortunately, people will vote the Congo name, not the Congo track record. Trippi wins here.
3rd District is currently represented by Darius Brown who is running for City Treasurer. Running to replace him are Tyler P. Brooks, nonprofit founder Erin Hutt and Zanthia Oliver. Erin Hutt is working hard at this and has an excellent reputation in the city. No idea why Brooks is running and Zanthia Oliver is sister to Norman Oliver, so I am sure she’s running to help bolster support for Purzycki in this District. The same old nonsense. Yawn. Hutt wins here.
4th District is currently represented by Hanifa Shabazz who is running for City Council President. Michelle Harlee, who is a VP of the 4th District Neighborhood Planning Council, and Robert P. Cannon, formerly with the controversial Cease Violence Wilmington project. Harlee has run a spectacularly professional campaign and has been plagued by the usual campaign nonsense (sign stealing, accusations that she doesn’t live in her district). Cannon is a supporter of Purzycki. I’ve seen a few of his signs, but not much else. Calling this one for Harlee.
5th District is represented by Sam Prado who is leaving the City Council at the end of this term. Sam has not been a very good City Councilman (full disclosure — he is my City Councilman) and has largely disappeared for the last 4 years. In the process, he’s abandoned a lot of good people trying to get good stuff done in that District who badly need some help. Running to replace him are Gervasio (Jerry) Velazquez, Anthony Miller and Vashun Turner. Jerry is my neighbor and has been extremely active all over the community for almost two decades. He’s been knocking on doors and meeting people since early spring — no idea what the other two are doing. Jerry Velazquez wins.
6th District is represented by Sherry Dorsey-Walker who is running for Lt. Governor. Running to replace her are Yolanda McCoy and Heather Taylor. McCoy works for West End Neighborhood House and has been working in all parts of this community. Taylor is an officer with the Hedgeville Community Asociation and is Dorsey-Walker’s hand-picked successor. Yolanda has had lots of energy and a great set of volunteers working with her, plus her background with West End gives her a unique head start on constituent services. Calling it for McCoy.
City Council At-Large: The top 3 make it to the General to face off against the top 3 GOP candidates. Interestingly, the GOP has a genuinely interesting field this year. Interesting enough that you wonder why they didn’t plot out a better strategy for their Mayoral run. Still, here are the Dems:
Tyrone C. Johnson, Sr.
Loretta Walsh
Richard L. Dyton
Brunilda Luna-Mercado
Edythe L. Pridgen
Waynna Dobson
Rysheema Dixon
Samuel L. Guy
Gladys Brister Spikes
Seriously? I think that there are two serious candidates in this pool — Loretta Walsh and Rysheema Dixon. Both make it to the final 3. Waynna Dobson and Sam Guy are employees of Tom Gordon and both are looking for Williams’ coattails here.
The GOP candidates:
Ciro Adams
Benjamin Cohen
Gregory T. Luna
Robert Keesler
Ciro Adams has been working at reviving the City’s Republican Club and has done that in a pretty inclusive way. Keesler has run before and has some name recognition and Luna has been pretty visible as a community activist in Cool Springs. I think that Adams, Luna and Keesler make it to the final 3.