From commenter Marcellus Wallace, who may need to get a promotion to contributer here at DL after this analysis he just posted this evening:
I believe LBR is a nice woman with legitimate high-level government experience and great potential. But her public performances (and lack thereof) left the impression that she is not ready for prime time, to put it charitably. I wanted to figure out how she won so convincingly. So I made sweet Excel love to the district-level data on the Department of Elections’ web page, so you don’t have to. My takeaways are below. Please note: the data is the data, but the conclusions are mine.
For starters, it would be easy to say that LBR won because of strong support in the City and surrounding areas, and that is true. But the real story is that she administered a broad-based, statewide ass kicking. All told, LBR won 28 of the 41 RDs statewide. In 13 of those 28 RDs, LBR earned more votes than Townsend and Barney combined.
As expected, LBR handily carried each of the RDs in the City of Wilmington (RDs 1-4), as well as the surrounding RDs that I’ll call “Greater Wilmington” (RDs 1-4, plus RDs 6, 7, 10, and 13). But she also won in places that surprised me, including:
• RD27 (Glasgow) – This is Earl Jaques’ district, and given its proximity to Newark, I would have thought Townsend would have won. Instead, LBR had more votes than Townsend and Barney combined.
• RD28 (Smyrma) and RD29 (Cheswold/W. Dover) – My guess is that neither of these districts is a hotbed of progressive activity. For years, RD28 has been represented by a racist tree stump, Bill “Lumpy” Carson (his actual nickname), and the 29th is ably represented by Charles W. “Trey” Paradee, III, a guy from an old Dover family that is so rich that they’re comfortable enough giving effete nicknames to their offspring. (Does Trey have a son, and if so, is his nickname Quad?) Anyway, LBR easily won both districts.
• It was the same story even further down in Slower Lower. LBR won RD30 (Harrington), HD33 (Frederica), HD35 (Bridgeville), and HD39 (Seaford). Sure, there aren’t a ton of Ds down there. But the fact that this happened both makes me proud (progress!) and makes me giggle.
Meanwhile, Bryan Townsend’s performance was underwhelming—and my takeaway is that he’s barely a regional candidate at this stage of his career. All told, he won 8 of 41 RDs, but 6 of them were either within the city limits of the People’s Republic of Newark (RDs 23-26) or adjacent areas (RDs 21-22). Even in those districts, Bryan didn’t win big. In only 1 district – Paul Baumbach’s 23rd – did Bryan receive more votes than the next 2 candidates combined.
If you think I’m being too harsh on our ambitious little friend, compare how the candidates did in Greater Wilmington (see RDs listed above) and in Greater Newark. In Greater Wilmington, LBR won huge, taking more than 9,200 out of almost 20,000 votes, compared to around 4,300 for Townsend and 4,200 for Barney. But although Townsend won Newark proper (RDs 23-26), he lost Greater Newark as a whole (RDs 23-26, plus RDs 17-19, 21-22, and 27). Out of around 14,000 votes, LBR received 5,500 or so, with Townsend at around 4,700.
Another possible lesson? Fellating the DSEA doesn’t provide the same value as it used to. Townsend lost big in districts propped up by DSEA water-carriers, including RD19 (K. Williams), RD10 (S. Matthews), RD 6 (D. Heffernan), and RD31 (S. Lynn). Historically, the DSEAs and the SEIUs of the world could be counted on to provide a big lift to a candidate’s ground game. I don’t know if Townsend’s weak performance can be attributed to a lack of real union help, an overreliance on the ground game, or the candidate’s textbook backpfeifengesicht. I report, you decide.
As for Sean Barney, there isn’t much to say. He won 5 out of 41 RDs, all of them in the most conservative districts in the state (RDs 36-38 and 40-41) and by extremely slim margins. Sean seems like a bright guy with a good heart. But if he couldn’t gain any traction with his war hero resume and gobs of out-of-state cash, it is probably time for him to find a new line of work.