A note on all this polling, it was all performed before the debate.
PRESIDENT
NATIONAL–Quinnipiac–CLINTON 47, Trump 46
NATIONAL–Monmouth–CLINTON 49, Trump 46
NATIONAL–NBC News/SM–CLINTON 51, Trump 44
PENNSYLVANIA–Harper–CLINTON 45, Trump 43
PENNSYLVANIA–Gravis–CLINTON 46, Trump 43
PENNSYLVANIA–Mercyhurst–CLINTON 42, Trump 41
FLORIDA–FL Chamber–CLINTON 45, Trump 42
MINNESOTA–KSTP/SurveyUSA–CLINTON 49, Trump 43
IOWA–Loras–CLINTON 42, TRUMP 42
NORTH CAROLINA–High Point–CLINTON 43, Trump 42
NORTH CAROLINA–Gravis–CLINTON 44, Trump 43
MASSACHUSETTS–UMass Amherst/WBZ–CLINTON 46, Trump 33
NEW YORK–NBC4/WSJ/Marist–CLINTON 52, Trump 31
OHIO–Ipsos–CLINTON 46, Trump 43
VIRGINIA–Ipsos–CLINTON 47, Trump 40
NORTH CAROLINA–Ipsos–CLINTON 49, Trump 43
FLORIDA–Ipsos–CLINTON 49, Trump 45
Politico: “As threats emanated from Trump Tower on Tuesday that the Republican nominee was preparing to name-check Bill Clinton’s mistresses — alleged or otherwise — Hillary Clinton’s aides and allies huddled hopefully in Brooklyn, eager for another opportunity to expose their opponent’s thin skin and rile up the female voters both campaigns need for the win.”
“Democrats know any resurfacing of Bill Clinton’s affairs can weigh their candidate down. But every time those sex scandals have come up, voters’ sympathy for Clinton has driven her poll numbers higher, and her team is counting on that again.”
The Arizona Republic endorsed a Democrat for the first time since the newspaper’s founding in 1890.
Clinton retains her composure under pressure. She’s tough. She doesn’t back down. Trump responds to criticism with the petulance of verbal spit wads.
That’s beneath our national dignity. When the president of the United States speaks, the world expects substance. Not a blistering tweet.
Former US Senator John Warner (R-Virginia) will also endorse Hillary.
First Read: “Maybe the most damaging part of last night’s debate for Trump was that it only extended the tax and birtherism stories, which are bound to come up again at the VP and second presidential debate over the next two weeks. On taxes, not only did Trump suggest that he’d release his taxes if Clinton releases her emails (so it’s not the audit after all?), he also seemed to admit that he indeed pays no taxes.”
“And on birtherism — Trump’s longstanding charge that President Obama wasn’t born in the United States and thus potentially illegitimate to be president — he (falsely) accused Clinton’s ’08 campaign of starting the issue. He also said he brought it to an end after getting Obama to produce his birth certificate. But he never apologized or explained what changed his mind (from 2011-2016 to two weeks ago) that Obama was indeed born in the U.S.”
Ed Kilgore asks what happens if the debate doesn’t move polls off the average +2-3 point lead Clinton has at the moment:
If Clinton does not make significant gains, we will have strong evidence that the best remaining strategy for her campaign is to focus on base mobilization — making sure her supporters get to the polls. That would be bad news for Clinton, but not devastating, because she has an advantage in the field operations and voter-targeting that are essential to getting out her vote.
There is also a weird dynamic at play with younger voters that might be hurting her, especially after tonight: Many left-leaning millennials seem to think Clinton’s already wrapped up the presidency, and are planning not to vote, or to cast a ballot for Gary Johnson or Jill Stein. Media gabbing about Clinton’s big win at Hofstra won’t exactly galvanize such voters to make a stand for HRC.
BuzzFeed: “Each time Hillary Clinton baited him, Trump reacted, resulting in a series of Trumpian moments that are sure to give the Democrats fresh ammunition against him with just a few weeks to go before Election Day.”
“When Clinton said he’d wanted to take advantage of the real estate crisis, he said that was ‘called business, by the way.’ He wouldn’t say if Russia is responsible for hacking Democratic email systems, instead raising the specter of a hypothetical 400-pound hacker. He said not paying federal income taxes ‘makes me smart.’ He defended not paying contractors who have worked on his properties. He rekindled a feud with Rosie O’Donnell, whose appearance he has insulted, saying she ‘deserves’ it. And he defended his long-running questioning of President Obama’s birthplace, arguing that he actually cleared up the controversy by getting Obama to release his birth certificate.”
“Trump, in other words, handed reinforcements to the Clinton campaign in several different areas: foreign policy, Trump’s treatment of women, his business dealings, and to what extent he pays taxes. Democrats in the post-debate spin room were openly celebrating the material Trump had handed them for future attack ads.”
Donald Trump insisted that Hillary Clinton did not get under his skin during their first debate and suggested that he may ‘hit her harder’ in their next encounter by raising the subject of former President Bill Clinton’s infidelities, the Washington Post reports.
Said Trump: “I really eased up because I didn’t want to hurt anyone’s feelings.”
John Fund asks if Trump realizes he choked: “Past presidential campaigns have often seen candidates recover from poor performances in the first debate. Ronald Reagan’s halting performance in the first debate in 1984 led to him delivering a devastating line in the second debate about taking advantage of Walter Mondale’s ‘youth and inexperience.’ George W. Bush blew his first debate with John Kerry in 2004, only to recover and win reelection. Barack Obama was rated the loser by two out of three CNN viewers in his first debate with Mitt Romney in 2012 and then staged a famous comeback.”
“But Donald Trump should realize the common denominator in all those success stories: Reagan, Bush, and Obama realized they had all “choked” (to use a favorite phrase of Trump’s) and prepared like hell for the next round.”
Donald Trump “failed to shore up support among suburban women — a key demographic that has been cool to him–by struggling to deflect Democrat Hillary Clinton’s attack on his treatment of women, strategists in the businessman’s own party said the morning after the first presidential debate,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Politico: “Overall, roughly 80 percent of insiders — with equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans responding to the post-debate survey — said Clinton did the better job at the debate, including 99 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of Republicans. Only 21 percent — 1 percent of Democrats and 43 percent of Republicans — picked Trump as the winner.”
Donald Trump “lashed out wildly on Tuesday in the aftermath of a disappointing first debate with Hillary Clinton, scolding the moderator, criticizing a beauty pageant winner for her physique and raising the prospect of an all-out attack on Bill Clinton’s marital infidelities in the final stretch of the campaign,” the New York Times reports.
“Having worked assiduously in recent weeks to cultivate a more disciplined demeanor on the campaign trail, Mr. Trump decisively cast aside that approach on Tuesday morning.”
Washington Post: “Despite his apparent sniffles throughout the night, Trump said he did not have a cold or allergies. He blamed the noises on his microphone, which he said could not be heard well in the room.”
Donald Trump “beleaguered after an erratic performance in Monday’s debate — with viewership as high as 100 million — retreated to his Fox News and Twitter cocoon. There, he took potshots at debate moderator Lester Holt and cited unscientific Internet surveys to prove he’d outperformed Hillary Clinton. And his advisers hinted that he might consider skipping the next showdown between the candidates, set for Oct. 9 in St. Louis,” Politico reports.
“It was a scarcely concealed defensive posture from the Trump camp, which found itself defending Trump against accusations of sexism (even as he redoubled his criticism of a former Miss Universe he had previously called ‘Miss Piggy,’ saying on Tuesday she had gained ‘a massive amount of weight’). His surrogates, too, joined the pile-on against Holt, describing “hostile” questioning about his position on the Iraq War, his role in the birther controversy and his refusal to release his tax returns.”