Delaware Liberal

Open Thread for Thursday, October 6, 2016

Delaware Dem

PRESIDENT
NATIONAL–Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind)–CLINTON 50, Trump 40
NATIONAL–The Times-Picayune/Lucid–CLINTON 45, Trump 37
NATIONAL–PRRI/Atlantic–CLINTON 47, Trump 41

A week ago, before the first presidential debate, Clinton and Trump were tied among likely voters at 43%.

VIRGINIA–Ipsos–CLINTON 48, Trump 40
NEW HAMPSHIRE–Ipsos–CLINTON 47, Trump 41
NORTH CAROLINA–Ipsos–CLINTON 48, Trump 44
OHIO–Monmouth–CLINTON 44, Trump 42
OHIO–Anzalone Liszt Grove Research–CLINTON 44, Trump 42
MICHIGAN–Detroit Free Press–CLINTON 43, Trump 32
NEVADA–Emerson–CLINTON 43, TRUMP 43
ARIZONA–Emerson–CLINTON 44, Trump 42
FLORIDA–Emerson–TRUMP 45, Clinton 44
MAINE’S 2ND DISTRICT (1 ELECTORAL VOTE)–Normington Petts & Associates–CLINTON 44, Trump 40
NEW MEXICO–KOB-TV/SurveyUSA–CLINTON 4, Trump 33
TEXAS–KTVT/CBS11–TRUMP 45, Clinton 38

“Sen. Tim Kaine may have awakened Wednesday to poor reviews after the first and only vice-presidential debate, but his acerbic performance in Farmville, Va., revealed that the Clinton campaign’s strategy for these debates extends far beyond the stage,” the Washington Post reports.

“Armed with pre-planned Web videos, television ads and tweets, the campaign has used key debate moments this week and last as a cudgel against the Republican ticket, showing a level of discipline and organization largely absent from Donald Trump and Indiana Gov. Mike Pence’s campaign.”

“Donald Trump’s support has plunged across the swing-state map over the last 10 days, wiping out his political recovery from September and threatening to undo weeks of Republican gains in the battle for control of Congress,” the New York Times reports.

“For his party, Mr. Trump’s reversal in fortune comes at the worst possible moment: Having muted their criticism of Mr. Trump in hopes that he could at least run competitively through Election Day, Republicans must decide in the next few days, rather than weeks, whether to seek distance from his wobbly campaign.”

“If Donald Trump is elected president and Republicans hold onto Congress, House Speaker Paul Ryan is bluntly promising to ram a partisan agenda through Capitol Hill next year, with Obamacare repeal and trillion-dollar tax cuts likely at the top of the list. And Democrats would be utterly defenseless to stop them,” Politico reports.

“Typically, party leaders offer at least the pretense of seeking bipartisanship when discussing their policy plans. But Ryan is saying frankly that Republicans would use budget reconciliation — a powerful procedural tool — to bypass Democrats entirely. It’s the same tool Republicans slammed Democrats for using to pass the 2010 health care law over their objections.”

Sources tell NBC News that Gov. Chris Christie is taking on an expanded role in the debate prep.

“That makes sense, given his unique strengths in the town hall format; Christie racked up dozens of them when he decamped to New Hampshire during his primary run.”

First Read: “RNC chair Reince Priebus is also helping to honcho these prep sessions, which are ‘significantly smaller’ than they used to be. Who’s missing? Gen. Mike Flynn, for one, along with Gen. Keith Kellogg, who have been sidelined to try and keep Trump focused.”

“Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are at risk of being elbowed out of the news cycle by a powerful hurricane churning toward the Southeast coast and threatening to barrel into two of their most important battlegrounds: Florida and North Carolina,” Politico reports.

“But the Clinton camp is refusing to be completely shut out of the conversation: Her team is buying airtime on the Weather Channel in a slew of major Florida media markets.”

Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns/NY Times:

Donald J. Trump’s support has plunged across the swing-state map over the last 10 days, wiping out his political recovery from September and threatening to undo weeks of Republican gains in the battle for control of Congress.

For his party, Mr. Trump’s reversal in fortune comes at the worst possible moment: Having muted their criticism of Mr. Trump in hopes that he could at least run competitively through Election Day, Republicans must decide in the next few days, rather than weeks, whether to seek distance from his wobbly campaign.

Should Mr. Trump falter badly in his second debate with Hillary Clinton on Sunday in St. Louis, Republican congressional candidates may take it as a cue to flee openly from their nominee, said two senior Republicans involved at high levels of the campaign who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss private party strategy.

Great ad.

Janie Valencia/HuffPost with sobering news for Trump:

Donald Trump dropped in the polls following the first presidential debate, allowing Hillary Clinton to open up a significant lead. History suggests that the Republican nominee will not be able to recover.

The first presidential debate usually benefits the candidate who is running against the incumbent president’s party. In the 10 elections from 1976 through 2012, the challenger has risen in the national polls eight times, according to data compiled by FiveThirtyEight and HuffPost Pollster.

That calculation is based on the straight average of polls conducted one week before the debate and one week after the debate.

The Atlantic, for only the third time since their founding in the 1850’s, have endorsed a candidate: Hillary Clinton, who joins the ranks of Abraham Lincoln and Lyndon Johnson.

Today, our position is similar to the one in which The Atlantic’s editors found themselves in 1964. We are impressed by many of the qualities of the Democratic Party’s nominee for president, even as we are exasperated by others, but we are mainly concerned with the Republican Party’s nominee, Donald J. Trump, who might be the most ostentatiously unqualified major-party candidate in the 227-year history of the American presidency…

Our interest here is not to advance the prospects of the Democratic Party, nor to damage those of the Republican Party. If Hillary Clinton were facing Mitt Romney, or John McCain, or George W. Bush, or, for that matter, any of the leading candidates Trump vanquished in the Republican primaries, we would not have contemplated making this endorsement. We believe in American democracy, in which individuals from various parties of different ideological stripes can advance their ideas and compete for the affection of voters. But Trump is not a man of ideas. He is a demagogue, a xenophobe, a sexist, a know-nothing, and a liar. He is spectacularly unfit for office, and voters—the statesmen and thinkers of the ballot box—should act in defense of American democracy and elect his opponent.

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