Open Thread for Friday, October 7, 2016

PRESIDENT
NATIONAL–Public Religion Research Institute–CLINTON 47, Trump 41
WASHINGTON–Strategies 360–CLINTON 47, Trump 31
NEW HAMPSHIRE–Boston Globe/Suffolk–CLINTON 44, Trump 42
INDIANA–WTHR/Howey Politics–TRUMP 43, Clinton 38
OHIO–PPP–CLINTON 48, Trump 47
FLORIDA–Univ. of North Florida–CLINTON 47, Trump 40
ARIZONA–OH Predictive Insights–CLINTON 42, TRUMP 42
TENNESSEE–Vanderbilt University–TRUMP 44, Clinton 33
WEST VIRGINIA–Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group–TRUMP 60, Clinton 28
MARYLAND–Washington Post/Univ. of Maryland–CLINTON 63, Trump 27
RHODE ISLAND–Emerson–CLINTON 52, Trump 32
MASSACHUSETTS–Western NE University–CLINTON 58, Trump 26

Florida Gov. Rick Scott (R), the chairman of the super PAC backing Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, has refused to extend the Tuesday deadline for voter registration as requested by Hillary Clinton’s campaign due to Hurricane Matthew, Politico reports.

Said Scott: “Everybody has had a lot of time to register.”

Scott is the Chairman of the Trump’s Florida campaign. South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has extended her state’s deadline.

Never vote for the party that does not want you to vote.

Politico: “Hillary Clinton is walking into the final stretch of this 2016 presidential contest with as much cash at her direct disposal as any White House contender in history. And her operatives expect her to use it to blanket the battleground states with both organizers and a heavy dose of anti-Donald Trump ads.”

The Clinton campaign says the could run up an “insurmountable lead” in Florida, North Carolina and Nevada “ahead of Election Day because of early voting, effectively deciding the outcome of those battleground states,” the Washington Post reports.

“Democrats expect that at least 40 percent of votes will be cast ahead of Nov. 8 in battleground states that allow early voting… He claimed that early indications in crucial Florida and Ohio are positive for Democrats… Clinton’s deficit in Ohio is shrinking, which Democrats attribute largely to momentum from her performance in the first presidential debate.”

Donald Trump's spokeswoman Katrina Pierson on Muslim ban: “So What? They’re Muslim!” pic.twitter.com/cumnCWJYKV

— Right Wing Talk (@RWTQuotes) October 6, 2016

“Only days before Donald Trump must face Hillary Clinton in a town-hall style presidential debate, the GOP nominee added just such an event in New Hampshire. It was seemingly a concession to anxious allies and advisers hoping he might hone his skills in what can be a difficult format even for the most dexterous of politicians,” Politico reports.

“While Sunday’s debate will stretch for 90 minutes without a bathroom break, Trump bolted from his town hall in Sandown after barely more than one-third of that time.”

“Trump’s campaign did place a two-minute countdown clock in front of their candidate on Thursday. He repeatedly blew past that time limit anyway.”

You can read more on this disastrous non-practice town hall here.

Rudy Giuliani's daughter says she's voting for Clinton https://t.co/IMGD9WBxjY

— andrew kaczynski (@KFILE) October 6, 2016

Harry Enten\: “Gary Johnson averaged just 7 percentage points in 11 polls1 released on Thursday, continuing a string of bad results for the Libertarian Party nominee. At the same time, the number of undecided voters appears to be falling. Those two trends are combining to remove some of the uncertainty in our forecasts — historically, the number of undecided and third-party voters has been strongly correlated with both polling volatility and polling error. The share of voters not supporting the major-party candidates remains higher than it was at this point in the 2012 campaign, for example, but the more it shrinks, the safer Hillary Clinton’s lead becomes.”

In depo for Trump Plaza bankruptcy case, Trump's own lawyer testifies they often met with him in pairs because Trump lies so much. pic.twitter.com/TdEkdf4ZiB

— southpaw (@nycsouthpaw) October 6, 2016

FBI agents also meet with people in pairs for the same reason, so that one agent can testify for the other as to what the interviewee said.

Some tea leaves from Jonathan Martin and Alexander Burns:

Mr. Trump has already slipped perceptibly in public polls, trailing widely this week in Pennsylvania and by smaller margins in Florida and North Carolina — three states he cannot afford to lose. But private polling by both parties shows an even more precipitous drop, especially among independent voters, moderate Republicans and women, according to a dozen strategists from both parties who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the data was confidential.

Liesl Hickey, a Republican strategist involved in several House races in swing states, said she was dismayed by a sudden exodus of independent voters in more diverse parts of the country.

“They are really starting to pull away from Trump,” said Ms. Hickey, describing his soaring unpopularity with independents as entering “uncharted territory.”

America's New Reagan: Obama Approval Same As The Gipper's. https://t.co/5OVCgPTn5l

— Oliver Willis (@owillis) October 6, 2016

Trump’s unpopularity – especially among women – is even starting to worry Republicans in Texas.

In solidly red Texas, how Trump performs with women — particularly women in fast-growing suburban counties like Montgomery [suburbs north of Houston] — is not irrelevant. For years now, Democrats and analysts have been eying the demographic as increasingly competitive, a key part of any equation to loosen the GOP’s grip on the state. And Trump appears to have less room for error than past GOP nominees did, with most polls showing him leading Clinton by only single digits in Texas.

Trump’s deficit with women may be “the best explanation for Trump’s underperformance in the state,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston. Pointing to a recent poll showing Trump trailing Clinton among likely female voters by a whopping 24 points in battleground Harris County [Houston and surrounding suburbs], Rottinghaus added, “That is the difference between being able to carry the county and not being able to carry the county. If women make up more than half the Republican coalition and you can’t rally them to support you, then it’s difficult to pull the party back together.”

Politico: “Newly confident in Hillary Clinton’s November prospects, Democrats are now plotting a post-Election Day campaign against individual Republicans for nominating—and sticking by—Donald Trump.”
“Party operatives in key states, with help from a few Washington players, are starting to fluff the feathers on the Trump albatross they want to hang around the GOP’s neck in 2017, 2018, even 2020. Anyone who stood with Trump, these Democrats intend to say, enabled racism, irresponsibility and a departure from conservative principles.”

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