The October 12, 2016 Thread
This is the most succinct explanation of Trump’s popularity within the GOP:
Trump won the nomination because he was the only candidate who told the racists in the GOP it was ok to be racist. Bottom line.
— PublicPolicyPolling (@ppppolls) October 8, 2016
UTAH–Desert News–CLINTON 26, TRUMP 26, McMullin 22, Johnson 14
NEW HAMPSHIRE–Greenberg Quinlan Rosner–CLINTON 46, Trump 38
OHIO–Baldwin Wallace Univ.–CLINTON 43, Trump 34
President Obama comments on Trump ally Alex Jones' report that he and Hillary Clinton are demons https://t.co/fZtEgzV8SY pic.twitter.com/5SkRnGqu2Q
— Media Matters (@mmfa) October 12, 2016
Wall Street Journal: “Political analysts are watching for signs that Republicans in tight races who had earlier broken with Mr. Trump now face greater odds of being swept out of office on a wave of anti-Trump sentiment. The problem is that waves that are big enough tend to sweep out candidates in races further down the ballot, as too few voters distinguish between the presidential nominee and his or her colleagues in downballot races.”
Meanwhile, CNN reports that House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi “told House Democrats on a conference call Tuesday that if the election were held today, Democrats would regain control of the House of Representatives.”
GOP congressman suggests he might back Trump even if Trump said he liked rape https://t.co/Yyg6ZUjfLE pic.twitter.com/milyFwMH5j
— Chris Cillizza (@TheFix) October 12, 2016
“Donald Trump’s intensifying battle with his own party is tearing open the nation’s political map, pulling Republicans across the country into a self-destructive feud that could imperil dozens of lawmakers in Congress and potentially throw conservative-leaning states into Hillary Clinton’s column,” the New York Times reports.
“Mrs. Clinton’s campaign has concluded that at least two traditionally Republican states, Georgia and Arizona, are realistic targets for her campaign to win over. And Republican polling has found that Mr. Trump is at dire risk of losing Georgia, according to people briefed on the polls, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.”
The Fix: “And we are adding Utah and Indiana to our list of competitive states with ratings of ‘lean Republican.’”
Full post: “The Apprentice” Microphone Guy Says Trump Repeatedly Called Him A “Fucking Monkey” https://t.co/Z4fs6k7Z31 @o_ema @buzzfeednews
— Joy Reid (@JoyAnnReid) October 12, 2016
We all know there is a tape out there were Trump uses the N or C words or both. It is only a matter of time.
Josh Marshall on facing the abuser’s rage:
To say that Trump can’t lose gracefully or graciously in the grandest of understatements. He’s driven by a need to dominate – not to be the best but to be recognized as the best, the richest, the smartest, the strongest. This also means needing to win always. All of this means he gets angry quickly and lashes out in the face of sleights.
Being shamed by nearly every Republican in the country is a profound ego injury. Looking at the prospect of a shattering electoral defeat is another. That has to be channeled somewhere and it looks like it’s going to be channeled against the GOP. Trump needs someone to blame. He’s already blamed news networks, blacks, debate moderators, the Khans, Alicia Machado, Judge Curiel. But Paul Ryan and the GOP now seem like the target of his most intense rage.
Will that rage settle as the intensity of the final weeks builds and the prospect of defeat gets closer? I would think not.
Remember, Trump is a bully. Bullies seek out people they can hurt. Trump has done everything he possibly can to hurt Hillary Clinton. But he doesn’t seem to be able to do so. The chance to do the one thing that would truly hurt her – defeating her in the general election – looks to be slipping beyond his grasp. That is almost certainly the root of his increasingly open threats to jail and punish her. But there is someone else he can hurt profoundly, even as he falls behind in the general election: the Republican party. All the better since they are his best argument to justify his defeat as a betrayal rather than a personal failure.
Donald Trump's tax plan would add to the federal debt and Hillary Clinton’s wouldn’t, study finds https://t.co/a6b9sdY22r
— The New York Times (@nytimes) October 11, 2016
The Wall Street Journal says Trump’s new strategy is not to win over new voters to his campaign, but to suppress the Clinton vote: “Mr. Trump, in fact, is trying to use his break with many party leaders as a lever to ramp up support among his base, which includes many voters who feel equally estranged from the party establishment.”
“The decision means that a campaign already marked by intensely personal attacks is primed to grow even uglier in the remaining four weeks. Mr. Trump plans to keep up a relentless assault on Mrs. Clinton, including her use of a private email server and allegations about her husband, former President Bill Clinton, with the intention of keeping some of her supporters home on Election Day, his advisers said.”
“It remains questionable whether Mr. Trump’s strategy can turn around the electoral math.”
I have bad news for Donald. There is not a thing you can say or do to dissuade Clinton’s voters from voters from voting for her.
Hillary to @MarkLeibovich “I’m the last thing standing between you and the apocalypse.”https://t.co/mSpvjybesh
— Hanna Rosin (@HannaRosin) October 11, 2016
A USA Today survey shows 26% of Republican governors and members of Congress are refusing to endorse Donald Trump.
“It is an extraordinary demonstration of the fracture Trump’s candidacy has revealed in the Republican Party. There is no precedent in modern American political history for elected officials of either party to refuse en masse to support their presidential nominee. It shows that Trump will have to wage a national campaign without the fleet of surrogates and supporters that every other presidential contender has relied on for decades to help bring voters to the polls. And it illustrates how hard it will be for the GOP to rebuild if Trump loses.”
The team that will deliver Ohio for @HillaryClinton #OHHillYes cc: @HillaryforOH pic.twitter.com/adjWxkxMKI
— Diana Bonete (@DianaBonete) September 29, 2016
What enthusiasm problem?
President Obama relished the GOP civil war that has broken out over Donald Trump, “openly mocking Republicans who are refusing to rescind their endorsements even as they condemn the nominee for talking cavalierly about sexual assault,” Politico reports.
Said Obama: “The fact that now you’ve got people saying: ‘Well, we strongly disapprove. We really disagree. We find those comments disgusting, but we’re still endorsing him. We still think he should be president.’ That doesn’t make sense to me.”
He added: “You can’t have it both ways here. You can’t repeatedly denounce what is said by someone and then say, ‘But I’m still gonna endorse them to be the most powerful person on the planet and to put them in charge.’”
Conservative evangelicals will mostly vote for Trump. But he's steadily dissolving their bonds with the GOP. https://t.co/gChq0ZoMEw
— Ed Kilgore (@ed_kilgore) October 11, 2016
Donald Trump took aim at Speaker Paul Ryan in an interview on Fox News. Said Trump: “I wouldn’t want to be in a foxhole with a lot of these people that I can tell you, including Ryan…especially Ryan.” Trump also accused Ryan of having “opened borders and amnesty,” and he charged that Ryan had promoted “bad budgets by the way, very, very bad budgets.”
Al Gore hit the campaign trail for Hillary Clinton today and said that his near miss in the 2000 presidential election is “exhibit A” for why it’s so important to vote, Politico reports.
Said Gore: “Your vote really, really, really counts — a lot. You can consider me as an exhibit A of that group. Now, for those of you who are younger than 25, you might not remember the election of 2000 and what happened here in Florida and across the country. For those of you older than 25, I heard you murmuring just now. But take it from me, it was a very close election/”
Meanwhile, supporters began to chant “You won! You won!”
My “Hillary by 1%” prediction yesterday may have to be revisted.
I LOVED Clintons ad aimed at Mormons BTW. I thought it was going to be dire, and about Trump, but it was sunny and optimistic, dealing with families and the importance of caring for all of our children.
https://youtu.be/1MWX6X0A85I
Wow; that ad is really good. That needs to play constantly in Arizona and Utah. She could still take them I think, especially with the latest revelations.
That ad is spectacular. I am calling it. Hillary wins Utah outright!
I’m actually hoping for an Evan McMullin win in Utah. It would send a much harsher message to Trumpets.
Fair point. By the way, no good polling out of South Carolina, but it was close at Hillary’s worst time in a couple of polls. I think it, Georgia, and Arizona will certainly be competitive again. I wonder if she’ll push it to send a message?
I’m waiting for the first mention in the media of Clinton’s first 100 days to call it for Clinton. Not sure I’ll see it in the next 30 days, but I wouldn’t be surprised.
In this recent era of relatively close elections, I’m not sure any of us are comfortable believing yet that Trump has truly imploded. But it is October 12th and his party is walking away from him. We may finally see the first true lopsided presidential election since 1996. Still, I’ll sleep better when the call is made on November 8th.
I got a little choked up watching that [no sarcasm]. While its out there as a political ad, the message in that ad should be the litmus test, in my opinion, for whether or not to elect someone.
first mention in the media of Clinton’s first 100 days
I’d be surprised to hear this. Or at least without the additional consideration of a Trump first 100 days. The media isn’t going to get too far out ahead of the narrative they are invested in.
Dave, I have seen articles speculating on her cabinet. So that close enough to talk about her first 100 days.
Yes the media does not want to get too far ahead. However, they also don’t want to be last and they do like to control the narrative with breathless pronouncements and speculation. The challenge for them is when to call it.
Also, I forgot that the cabinet narrative comes before the 100 days narrative. So, good point. I haven’t really seen any of that.
Politico ran a cabinet piece in August, but I’ve not seen much of one anywhere else.
Digby FTW:
“Apparently leading Republicans still don’t understand what is happening to their party. They seem to be under the impression that their only problem is a strange interloper by the name of Donald Trump, and they couldn’t be more wrong. Their problem is that they have a large and powerful faction of voters who despise them as much as they despise the Democrats.”
Don’t laugh, Democrats. The same is true of your party.
Anonymous – are you implying that Hillary Clinton is a “strange interlope?” She may not be every Democrat’s favorite possible candidate, but she clearly doesn’t warrant that characterization.
Clinton won a majority of primary votes. Trump didn’t win 50% until the last few states. While both parties are made up of coalitions that don’t always get along, the Trump segment of the Republican party threatens to tear it from the seams.
in AZ, I’ve seen a lot of Hilary adds for the past 3 weeks or so. I’m not sure if Trump’s dust-up with McCain hurts or helps him :). I’ve only been out here 3 years, so I don’t know enough about the politics in AZ, but I’ll call the state 1 point for Hillary with Johnson getting about 5%. McCain wins by about 4, and Recreation Marijuana wins by 5 (that’s the topic of a LOT of political adds lately, both PRO and CON)
AA: No implications about her; she’s obviously anything but an interloper. Was talking about the second part, that half those who vote for the party’s candidates dislike Democrats in office as much as Republicans. That there is no consensus among the voters on the Third Way, whose practitioners currently run the Democratic Party and look to continue to do so, and that an intra-party crack-up looms for Democrats, maybe at the worst possible time, 2020.
This problem is not quite as acute in the Democratic party, in large part because Democrats still want to govern. That hasn’t been true for the GOP for a long time. And the GOPs large and powerful faction is a result of drawing districts that prioritize and hands power to the kind of voters we see here.
That doesn’t mean that there isn’t a rising dissatisfaction with Democratic business as usual, which I think Bernie’s run highlighted. Right now, there isn’t much threat to incumbents over this (although I think what happened in Wilmington could be seen as a canary in a coal mine), but there should be. Incumbents and Dem leadership should be internalizing a bunch of lessons here and working on addressing some of the structural issues that are making so many feel so disconnected from their government.
Meanwhile, not to encroach on El Som’s turf, but I found myself humming this ditty while pulling weeds. It’s a song you don’t hear much anymore, but I remember it from my youth. I changed only one word:
A pig is an animal with dirt on his face
His words are a terrible disgrace
He’s got no manners when he eats his food
He’s fat and lazy and extremely rude
But if you don’t care a feather or a fig
You may grow up to be a pig
The problem is the Democrats, take ours for example, are mostly owned by corporate interests and support wars, arming despotic nations, budget busting defense budgets, are against legalization of marijuana, and lean somewhat conservative on many issues. If not shamed by members of this site, I would be voting for Stein instead of Clinton and if the Greens were viable or another bernie sanders comes along I and millions like me would vote for them over the DNC controlled candidate.
That Mormon ad is awesome. If only evangelical Christians were, ya know, Christian this would be a great ad for them.