Delaware Liberal

The October 13, 2016 Thread

Delaware Dem

PRESIDENT
NATIONAL–Reuters/Ipsos–CLINTON 44, Trump 37
NATIONAL–The Times Picayune/Lucid–CLINTON 43, Trump 37
NATIONAL–RAND–CLINTON 43, Trump 33
NEVADA–PPP–CLINTON 47, Trump 43
PENNSYLVANIA–Bloomberg–CLINTON 51, Trump 42
MICHIGAN–Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell–CLINTON 47, Trump 37
NEW HAMPSHIRE–PPP–CLINTON 48, Trump 37
WISCONSIN–Marquette–CLINTON 44, Trump 37
FLORIDA–Opinion Savvy–CLINTON 47, Trump 44
MISSOURI–Monmouth–TRUMP 46, Clinton 41
MICHIGAN–Detroit News–CLINTON 47, Trump 33
MAINE WHOLE STATE–MPRC–CLINTON 44, Trump 36
MAINE CD2–MPRC–TRUMP 40, Clinton 39
MAINE CD1–MPRC–CLINTON 49, Trump 32

The New York Times tells the stories of two women:

In the days since Mr. Trump’s campaign was jolted by a 2005 recording that caught him bragging about pushing himself on women, he has insisted, as have his aides, that it was simply macho bluster. “It’s just words,” he has said repeatedly.

And his hope for salvaging his candidacy rests heavily on whether voters believe that claim.

They should not, say Ms. Leeds and Ms. Crooks, whose stories have never been made public before. And their accounts echo those of other women who have previously come forward, like Temple Taggart, a former Miss Utah, who said that Mr. Trump kissed her on the mouth more than once when she was a 21-year-old pageant contestant.

The Palm Beach Post has the account of a third woman:

“All of a sudden I felt a grab, a little nudge. I think it’s Ken’s camera bag, that was my first instinct. I turn around and there’s Donald. He sort of looked away quickly. I quickly turned back, facing Ray Charles, and I’m stunned.’’

And there are more allegations from more women, and a very disturbing CBS video about a young 10 year old girl, below. Trump’s response: More Bill Clinton, who is not running for President, and more threats of lawsuits.

As you might have seen on Rachel last night, Trump’s numbers collapsed in Wisconsin after the Assault Confession Tape. Philip Bump:

The pollsters noticed an immediate effect. The way live-caller polls work is that a bank of interviewers calls landlines and cellphones to reach a certain number of people. This is a slow process, and a poll is usually in the field for several days. So Marquette called from Thursday through Sunday, ending before the second debate. In a series of tweets, they revealed what they found.

On Thursday, likely voters backed Trump by a one-percentage-point margin. This is well within the margin of error; since each day’s calls is only a part of the overall sample, the margins of error are necessarily larger.

On Friday, the day the tape came out late in the afternoon, Clinton led by six points.

On Saturday and Sunday, she led by 19. That’s a 20-point shift over the course of the survey, and why Clinton now leads Trump by seven points in a four-way contest.

This is correct. Trump is a public figure, thus he will have to prove malice on the part of the New York Times while also showing that the allegations are false. Good luck with all that.

So the Trump threat of lawsuits is only an attempt to silence the media and any other women. It’s not going to work.

Donald Trump’s campaign is “pulling out of Virginia,” a move that stunned staff in the battleground state, three sources with knowledge of the decision told NBC News. “The decision came from Trump’s headquarters in New York and was announced on a conference call late Wednesday that left some Republican Party operatives in the state blindsided. Two staffers directly involved in the GOP’s efforts in Virginia confirmed the decision.”

The great news about this is that there are 3-4 competitive swing congressional districts in Virginia that will now tilt to the Dems. It also means Trump must win all the rest of the “swing states;” PA, OH, FL, NC, NH, CO, WI

“A federal judge has extended voter registration in the battleground state of Florida for one week, until Tuesday, October 18,” CNN reports. “The request to extend the deadline had been sought by the Florida Democratic Party in the wake of Hurricane Matthew.”

Ryan Cooper: “Hillary Clinton is often portrayed as a legendary political brawler, but sometimes she seems to lack a really bloodthirsty partisan instinct. The object now, instead of cautiously sitting back with a prevent defense and letting Trump hang himself, should be to go in for the kill, especially down the ballot. Every Republican candidate should be walloped with the deranged nominee, every minute of every day, and every Republican base voter should be either applauding their local nominee’s support of bile and hatred, or hanging their head in despair at yet another RINO giving in to political correctness.”

“Anything less will mean a missed chance at total control of D.C.”

Doyle McManus: “Donald Trump has already lost that one several times over — through his serial attacks on women and minorities, the appearance of a videotape in which he describes himself as a sexual abuser, and his overall failure to turn himself into a credible president-in-waiting. Still at stake on election day, though, is what kind of presidency Clinton will be allowed to have — and that depends mostly on who is elected to the Senate and House of Representatives.”

“If Democrats win a majority in both chambers, Clinton will be able to pass significant parts of her platform, much as Obama did in 2009 and 2010.”

“But if Republicans keep their majorities, she’ll have to negotiate with an angry opposition in which the loudest voices are likely to revive the obstructionism they have perfected over the last six years.”

Donald Trump floated the prospect of a “sinister deal” preventing Speaker Paul Ryan from coming to his defense, The Hill reports. Said Trump: “Wouldn’t you think Paul Ryan would call and say, ‘good going.’ You’d think they’d say, ‘Great going, Don. Let’s go, let’s beat this crook. Let’s beat her, we’ve got to stop her.’ No, he doesn’t do that. Theres a whole deal going on, we’re going to figure it out. I always figure things out. There’s a whole sinister deal.”

Donald Trump “is toying with what might be called ‘poll denialism,’ giving his supporters license to dismiss the discouraging data,” CNN reports. Said Trump: “Even the polls are crooked. Look, we’re in a rigged system.”

I choose nuclear war.

Harry Enten: “Donald Trump now trails Hillary Clinton by 6.6 percentage points, according to our polls-only model. And the clock is ticking. We’re 26 days from the election, and by this point in past campaigns, the concrete had basically dried.”

“Trump could stage a comeback. It’s possible. But it would be basically unprecedented… That’s not to say Trump is dead in the water — polls are not perfectly predictive — but history doesn’t offer much hope for candidates in Trump’s position.”

Rick Klein: “Unshackled Trump is a dangerous thing – to his own party perhaps more than anything else. Donald Trump has responded to the rebellion inside the GOP by lashing back at those who are expressing concerns about his candidacy, blasting “weak and ineffective” Republican office-holders. This list includes, in his telling, House Speaker Paul Ryan (whom he’s not sure should stay in the job) and Sen. John McCain (who is fighting to keep his job in the complex storm Trump stirred up). Trump also released an ad so over-the-top that ‘SNL’ would have trouble beating it, featuring a coughing and stumbling Hillary Clinton.”

“Trump has always felt he wasn’t getting the respect he deserved for winning the primaries from members from Republican insiders. But his very Trumpian response to the latest developments threatens to narrow, not broaden, his appeal. This is a campaign, and now an entire political party, that’s in the process of melting down. Trump’s campaign is adding heat to that mix.”

“Democrats are now extremely confident they will capture control of the Senate next month in the wake of Donald Trump’s drop in the polls and an intensifying civil war in the Republican Party.”

“Winning the majority is a given, Democratic officials told The Hill, adding that signs point to a pickup of seven seats and possibly more on Election Day… Democrats contend they’re on track to pick up seats in Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”

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