The October 13, 2016 Thread
PRESIDENT
NATIONAL–Reuters/Ipsos–CLINTON 44, Trump 37
NATIONAL–The Times Picayune/Lucid–CLINTON 43, Trump 37
NATIONAL–RAND–CLINTON 43, Trump 33
NEVADA–PPP–CLINTON 47, Trump 43
PENNSYLVANIA–Bloomberg–CLINTON 51, Trump 42
MICHIGAN–Fox 2 Detroit/Mitchell–CLINTON 47, Trump 37
NEW HAMPSHIRE–PPP–CLINTON 48, Trump 37
WISCONSIN–Marquette–CLINTON 44, Trump 37
FLORIDA–Opinion Savvy–CLINTON 47, Trump 44
MISSOURI–Monmouth–TRUMP 46, Clinton 41
MICHIGAN–Detroit News–CLINTON 47, Trump 33
MAINE WHOLE STATE–MPRC–CLINTON 44, Trump 36
MAINE CD2–MPRC–TRUMP 40, Clinton 39
MAINE CD1–MPRC–CLINTON 49, Trump 32
The New York Times tells the stories of two women:
In the days since Mr. Trump’s campaign was jolted by a 2005 recording that caught him bragging about pushing himself on women, he has insisted, as have his aides, that it was simply macho bluster. “It’s just words,” he has said repeatedly.
And his hope for salvaging his candidacy rests heavily on whether voters believe that claim.
They should not, say Ms. Leeds and Ms. Crooks, whose stories have never been made public before. And their accounts echo those of other women who have previously come forward, like Temple Taggart, a former Miss Utah, who said that Mr. Trump kissed her on the mouth more than once when she was a 21-year-old pageant contestant.
The Palm Beach Post has the account of a third woman:
“All of a sudden I felt a grab, a little nudge. I think it’s Ken’s camera bag, that was my first instinct. I turn around and there’s Donald. He sort of looked away quickly. I quickly turned back, facing Ray Charles, and I’m stunned.’’
And there are more allegations from more women, and a very disturbing CBS video about a young 10 year old girl, below. Trump’s response: More Bill Clinton, who is not running for President, and more threats of lawsuits.
Physically attacked by Donald Trump – a PEOPLE writer’s own harrowing story https://t.co/nUBl6hJaUj pic.twitter.com/TUhYvsg7cn
— People Magazine (@people) October 13, 2016
As you might have seen on Rachel last night, Trump’s numbers collapsed in Wisconsin after the Assault Confession Tape. Philip Bump:
The pollsters noticed an immediate effect. The way live-caller polls work is that a bank of interviewers calls landlines and cellphones to reach a certain number of people. This is a slow process, and a poll is usually in the field for several days. So Marquette called from Thursday through Sunday, ending before the second debate. In a series of tweets, they revealed what they found.
On Thursday, likely voters backed Trump by a one-percentage-point margin. This is well within the margin of error; since each day’s calls is only a part of the overall sample, the margins of error are necessarily larger.
On Friday, the day the tape came out late in the afternoon, Clinton led by six points.
On Saturday and Sunday, she led by 19. That’s a 20-point shift over the course of the survey, and why Clinton now leads Trump by seven points in a four-way contest.
Very hard for public figure to win suit for allegations made on record & investigated – must prove NYT knowingly published false information https://t.co/4UlDPROzOr
— Ari Melber (@AriMelber) October 13, 2016
This is correct. Trump is a public figure, thus he will have to prove malice on the part of the New York Times while also showing that the allegations are false. Good luck with all that.
So the Trump threat of lawsuits is only an attempt to silence the media and any other women. It’s not going to work.
Donald Trump’s campaign is “pulling out of Virginia,” a move that stunned staff in the battleground state, three sources with knowledge of the decision told NBC News. “The decision came from Trump’s headquarters in New York and was announced on a conference call late Wednesday that left some Republican Party operatives in the state blindsided. Two staffers directly involved in the GOP’s efforts in Virginia confirmed the decision.”
The great news about this is that there are 3-4 competitive swing congressional districts in Virginia that will now tilt to the Dems. It also means Trump must win all the rest of the “swing states;” PA, OH, FL, NC, NH, CO, WI
JUST IN: Footage surfaces of Trump making questionable remark about 10-year old girl https://t.co/LL5dw0JOnF pic.twitter.com/fC0rSAXLga
— The Hill (@thehill) October 13, 2016
“A federal judge has extended voter registration in the battleground state of Florida for one week, until Tuesday, October 18,” CNN reports. “The request to extend the deadline had been sought by the Florida Democratic Party in the wake of Hurricane Matthew.”
Ryan Cooper: “Hillary Clinton is often portrayed as a legendary political brawler, but sometimes she seems to lack a really bloodthirsty partisan instinct. The object now, instead of cautiously sitting back with a prevent defense and letting Trump hang himself, should be to go in for the kill, especially down the ballot. Every Republican candidate should be walloped with the deranged nominee, every minute of every day, and every Republican base voter should be either applauding their local nominee’s support of bile and hatred, or hanging their head in despair at yet another RINO giving in to political correctness.”
“Anything less will mean a missed chance at total control of D.C.”
Doyle McManus: “Donald Trump has already lost that one several times over — through his serial attacks on women and minorities, the appearance of a videotape in which he describes himself as a sexual abuser, and his overall failure to turn himself into a credible president-in-waiting. Still at stake on election day, though, is what kind of presidency Clinton will be allowed to have — and that depends mostly on who is elected to the Senate and House of Representatives.”
“If Democrats win a majority in both chambers, Clinton will be able to pass significant parts of her platform, much as Obama did in 2009 and 2010.”
“But if Republicans keep their majorities, she’ll have to negotiate with an angry opposition in which the loudest voices are likely to revive the obstructionism they have perfected over the last six years.”
BREAKING: Miss Washington 2013 says Donald Trump groped her https://t.co/wdlLAbsiHt via @king5seattle
— Justin Miller (@justinjm1) October 12, 2016
Donald Trump floated the prospect of a “sinister deal” preventing Speaker Paul Ryan from coming to his defense, The Hill reports. Said Trump: “Wouldn’t you think Paul Ryan would call and say, ‘good going.’ You’d think they’d say, ‘Great going, Don. Let’s go, let’s beat this crook. Let’s beat her, we’ve got to stop her.’ No, he doesn’t do that. Theres a whole deal going on, we’re going to figure it out. I always figure things out. There’s a whole sinister deal.”
Donald Trump “is toying with what might be called ‘poll denialism,’ giving his supporters license to dismiss the discouraging data,” CNN reports. Said Trump: “Even the polls are crooked. Look, we’re in a rigged system.”
"Americans voting for a president on Nov. 8…are voting for peace on if they vote for Trump. https://t.co/FuXqeiz8F2 -Putin ally
— Howard Dean (@GovHowardDean) October 12, 2016
I choose nuclear war.
Harry Enten: “Donald Trump now trails Hillary Clinton by 6.6 percentage points, according to our polls-only model. And the clock is ticking. We’re 26 days from the election, and by this point in past campaigns, the concrete had basically dried.”
“Trump could stage a comeback. It’s possible. But it would be basically unprecedented… That’s not to say Trump is dead in the water — polls are not perfectly predictive — but history doesn’t offer much hope for candidates in Trump’s position.”
A nice break from the current swamp. Barack Obama Talks AI, Robo-Cars, and the Future of the World https://t.co/y1geOYHdxo via @WIRED
— David Plouffe (@davidplouffe) October 12, 2016
Rick Klein: “Unshackled Trump is a dangerous thing – to his own party perhaps more than anything else. Donald Trump has responded to the rebellion inside the GOP by lashing back at those who are expressing concerns about his candidacy, blasting “weak and ineffective” Republican office-holders. This list includes, in his telling, House Speaker Paul Ryan (whom he’s not sure should stay in the job) and Sen. John McCain (who is fighting to keep his job in the complex storm Trump stirred up). Trump also released an ad so over-the-top that ‘SNL’ would have trouble beating it, featuring a coughing and stumbling Hillary Clinton.”
“Trump has always felt he wasn’t getting the respect he deserved for winning the primaries from members from Republican insiders. But his very Trumpian response to the latest developments threatens to narrow, not broaden, his appeal. This is a campaign, and now an entire political party, that’s in the process of melting down. Trump’s campaign is adding heat to that mix.”
"I don't remember seeing Hillary Clinton" on 9/11 – Rudy Giuliani, just now. Look to your left, Rudy. pic.twitter.com/zJbVFMDhuf
— Oliver Willis (@owillis) October 12, 2016
“Democrats are now extremely confident they will capture control of the Senate next month in the wake of Donald Trump’s drop in the polls and an intensifying civil war in the Republican Party.”
“Winning the majority is a given, Democratic officials told The Hill, adding that signs point to a pickup of seven seats and possibly more on Election Day… Democrats contend they’re on track to pick up seats in Indiana, Illinois, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.”
Trump is a lying groping scumbag. So what?
Everyone knows that. Charlie Copeland knows it and still “fully supports” him. All Republicans know it. Every poll of the national popular vote is still within the margin of error. It is plenty close enough for it to suddenly go the other way. AND it is close enough for Trump to create a lot of misery for everyone if he loses by a little.
It will not be close. Please follow link to someone who can articulate it better than me.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2016/10/10/1580365/-Expect-Us
He is cooked, and as more accounts surface, it will only become worse. Wave goodbye.
Here’s my question: Why didn’t any of these sex allegations against Trump come up during the Republican primary? Were they unknown at the time?
“Why didn’t any of these sex allegations against Trump come up during the Republican primary?”
Bush and Cruz were hoping to scoop up Trumps racist, misogynist creeps when he “inevitably” imploded. They thought the inevitable would happen sometime prior to October 2017
It doesn’t matter to me so much that he’s a lying scum back but it’s the obvious fact he hose no interest in governing or ability to form coherent stable policy
“Bush and Cruz were hoping to scoop up Trumps racist, misogynist creeps when he “inevitably” imploded.”
I get that, but it is not a satisfying explanation. Bush and Cruz could have destroyed Trump with this oppo and still picked up the deplorables. Why it didn’t come out sooner is still a mystery to me.
Thanks for the link Sue. I get that Trump has activated a generation of women. Maybe young women turn out in slightly higher numbers for Clinton than they would have, but I don’t see these recent news stories forging women into a super-cohesive voting block.
All of this stuff was known, so the portion of the “women’s vote” that was in play over this type of issue was already accounted for.
Puck – I sincerely believe that Bush and Cruz viewed the quick end of Trump’s campaign as a stone cold inevitable lock. Why wouldn’t they given the trajectory of all campaigns like Trumps?
Thier unshakable faith that he was a dead man walking kept them from doing any oppo research until it was far too late.
“Why didn’t any of these sex allegations against Trump come up during the Republican primary? Were they unknown at the time?”
Some were known. Some were not.
But I do like his haircut in that picture. I might get one like that.
“I was burned out from exhaustion, buried in the hail
Poisoned in the bushes an’ blown out on the trail
Hunted like a crocodile, ravaged in the corn
Come in, she said, I’ll give ya
Shelter from the storm”
–Bob Dylan, Newest American Nobel Laureate (First American winner of the Literature prize since Toni Morrison)
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/14/arts/music/bob-dylan-nobel-prize-literature.html?_r=0
Every poll of the national popular vote is still within the margin of error.
The polls that DD posted today (in this very thread) don’t indicate that or else the margin of error is huge. The national vote won’t elect anyone — the Electoral College will. And Nate Silver has her chances of winning at 80+% now. That doesn’t mean it is time to get comfortable, but the national polls don’t tell you much at this point.
I can imagine the consternation of the sane Republicans. The ones that you can disagree with but still respect because they refuse to demonize opponents. I am positive they are aghast at this state of affairs. The one’s I know personally, have gone completely silent on politics. I have no idea what they will do on election day, but I can tell you that if they vote for Trump, I’ll never know and if they don’t they will probably only admit that they didn’t vote for him, not who they voted for. Some of them claim to be independents, except they voted in the primary, so that dog don’t hunt. With a little over 3 weeks left, what remains to be seen is will it get any worse for him and the effect on down ballot races.
I don’t want to destroy the GOP. We need a two party system, but I do want to severely punish the GOP for not being better stewards of our political system. Fortunately with a moderate in the White House, we will have a chance to continue the incremental progress of the last 8 years. I know the real progressives are going suffer because things won’t move fast enough, but they will survive. In the meantime, the GOP can languish in the wilderness.
Bush and Cruz could have destroyed Trump with this oppo and still picked up the deplorables.
And I think you can tell that this sexual assault business isn’t budging the deplorables one bit. Plus I wonder if any of them would have cause to reason that if they release this kind of data, then whoever has this kind of data on them would release it as well?
Silver’s 80+% simply means if the election was held 5 times Trump would win one of the five. Who thinks those odds are good?
not really cheering for this, but wonder if it will happen: populist party on the left, populist party on the right, centrists in the (um, center) maybe called the democratic party. maybe a fourth group of the christian right with tea partiers who don’t go populist. not sure which would be the majority, except probably not the evangelicals. maybe the centrist party if it skewed a little left and nominated a candidate people like. if we stick with the two present parties, i see both going toward populism. both would have better candidates next time (tho hillary is clearly the much better candidate this time).
Jason, I dont think that’s how odds and statistics work. It means that if the election were held over and over again, he would have a 20% chance each time. He might win every time or none of the time.
Like die rolls….. you can roll a die 6 times and never get a (or more than a) number. Coin flips don’t alternate based on 50/50 odds. Id rather see Clinton’s chances at “the election is over and she won by the largest EV margin ever”
We need a second party. That party does not have to be the Republicans.
Meanwhile, where’s the over/under on how many women come forward with stories about where he put his tiny hands? I’m going with 100.
Democrats already have another oppositon party – DINOs. They’re ready to fight progress.
And by DINOs I mean mostly the corporate-captured Democrats.
I’m a DOVC..Democrat only viable choice.
@anonymous
I don’t know the number, but I bet it’s going to be Yuuuuge!
“where’s the over/under on how many women come forward with stories about where he put his tiny hands?”
I don’t know but I predict the line will get much shorter after election day.
Why would you predict that? Please, please, please tell me you aren’t viewing these women as opportunistic.
“That party does not have to be the Republicans.”
Ok, but there really are no other viable choices. Given the Democratic Party is really the centrist party, the progressive Ds could form their own party (the Socialist Party) and the alt right could form the Nationalist Party (or White Supremacist Party). But would those parties be viable at a national or even state level? Populism is great for rallies, but governing is a sober business
I’m guessing we are stuck with the GOP for the foreseeable future. They need to heal themselves. It will take a long time to do so. A first step would be to cut the alt right loose.
OMG. Dave is usually smarter than this:
“A first step would be to cut the alt right loose.”
And what’s left? The cut loose White Nationalist Party would dwarf a reconstituted “centrist” GOP. In fact, the White Nationalists could very well walk away with the GOP’s assets (including its ballot positions and name) when this is all over.
Actually now it is 87%.
Sam Wang has her winning at 94%
“Who thinks those odds are good?”
Four out of five dentists.
“I don’t know but I predict the line will get much shorter after election day.”
I doubt it. Sheer volume will make it impossible to follow his usual course of stringing out the cases in court. In direct contradiction to what he says, he usually settles, and I expect him to declare personal bankruptcy to evade the litigants, who I expect will number in the triple digits.
Trump is responsible for bringing these women out. At the last debate he flat out denied to Anderson Cooper that he ever acted on his locker room talk. Anyone who knew that was a lie would talk about it. In fact, most of these women had talked about what Trump did to them to other people when it happened.
I need some help from the women here.
One thing many conservatives claim to believe, women included, is the traditional patriarchal hierarchy, certainly in marriage. Yet many of them are making the claim (Google it and see) that Hillary “couldn’t control her husband.”
What are they saying? That women are NOT subject to their husbands? That in reality THEY are in charge behind the throne? Or is it simple hate that makes them say something that goes against their supposed bedrock beliefs?
“Anyone who knew that was a lie would talk about it.”
That’s why I think the litigants will reach triple figures. The potential number could reach five figures, I would think, given Wilt Chamberlain’s total — and he was talking about actual intercourse, which takes more time than a rapid octopus assault. Or as his German-loving minions would call it, Tintenfischangriff.
I’ll take a shot at this, anonymous. If you begin with the premise that when a husband cheats it’s the woman’s fault for letting herself go, not meeting his needs (emotionally and physically), aging, etc. then add to it the idea that it’s a woman’s job to police men you get a strange brew of mixed messages. What you never get with this group is them blaming the man who cheated.
All of their roads lead to blaming the woman, how they get there rarely matters or is consistent.
Here’s a prime example: This is the same group who’s been screaming for the last few weeks that we need to believe accusers. Now it’s back to women lie.
It makes your head spin.
Yes, it does. Trump and his kin can’t even see that bringing up Bill’s behavior is what made this an issue. They don’t understand the concept of “you can’t have it both ways,” that if Bill’s accusers should be believed, so should Trump’s.
But I keep coming back to that word “control.” I want them to provide a link to the Biblical verse that says “a woman should control her husband.” No conservative woman (except an unfortunate, easily-gaslighted few) really thinks it’s her fault if her husband cheats. I just don’t see how their patriarchal, supposedly Biblical world view even allows for the concept of a woman “controlling her husband.”
It’s the same way their abortion is different. By making Hillary in charge of controlling Bill then Hillary’s to blame. Try substituting the word “police” for “control” and you’ll probably end up closer to their distorted meaning. This group views women as the gatekeepers to sex, rather than equal participants. So… perhaps that’s what they’re talking about – women control their husbands through sex?
But finding consistency in any of these people’s arguments is a fruitless exercise. They always have it both ways. Anyone with a functioning brain cell could see that Trump going after Bill Clinton’s sexual escapades would make Trump’s behavior towards women fair game. But these people refuse to see the similarities. Seriously, Trump has a rape charge against him that’s scheduled a status conference:
You’d think this would be a topic Trump and co. would avoid like the plague. But… nope.
Oh wow. Trump basically saying he didn’t grope these women because… they weren’t hot enough?
Wish I’d said this on Twitter, but I didn’t. Besides, I’m not on Twitter:
“Who you going to believe, women who claim they were groped, or a man who says he gropes women? It’s a real “he & she both said” situation.”
That’s pretty effing good.
“And what’s left? The cut loose White Nationalist Party would dwarf a reconstituted “centrist” GOP.”
@Jason Don’t be swayed by the Trump rally traveling circus. The WWE attracts YUGE crowds, but really, but everybody knows it’s fake. They are there just to be entertained. Spectacles always attracts a crowd. It’s part of the reason they attend NASCAR races and why they slow down at car wrecks.
There will be more than a few who will act like lemmings and go off the deep end but just as many will recognize that the circus is over and come grumbling home, dissatisfied but hoping the GOP establishment learned their lesson.
The question is how does the GOP pick up the pieces?
Logic, reason, science and established facts are all antithetical to the right wing delusional ilk. It’s like a cult.
let’s hope they don’t. While I would stay opposed to them with every fiber of my being, I wouldn’t mind if a fascist white nationalist party emerged from this. At least they would all be in one place (assuming their current place, the GOP, no longer exists)
The other thing it would do, is give electoral cover for socialist-progressives to split from corporate-humping DNC folks (looking at you, carper) and form THEIR own party. I am quite confident that the centrist Democratic party would be the largest, followed by the socialists and trailed by the Whites…… It would also force the Dems to work with the SP’s to pass legislation, thus pushing everything to the left. … but im just dreamin’.
“…but just as many will recognize that the circus is over and come grumbling home…”
You are assuming that a full half of the people who threw in with Trump aren’t White Nationalists at heart. That’s wishful thinking. Moreover, you seem to be assuming that the remaining “centrist” GOP members will have some infrastructure to return too.
I doubt they will. The lunatics have taken over the online party building machinery. They have TV channels beyond Fox (if Fox gets Squishy), OAN, Newsmax, and scores of lunatic websites.
What do the remaining centrists have? The National Review? Pfft.
Pandora,
my mind went to “Trump is probably going to deny these allegations because he will call the women ugly”…. then I chastised myself for thinking that…. then 2 minutes later…..
“I wouldn’t mind if a fascist white nationalist party emerged from this. ”
9-12 Patriots, Tea Party, National Socialist Movement, East Coast Knights Of The True Invisible Empire, Advanced White Society, Original Knight Riders Knights of the Ku Klux Klan (all in Delaware)
I pretty sure we already have them. But I suppose they could coalesce into a national party.
The NYT responds to Trump’s demand letter — which I beleive translates to:
Bring.It.
If you haven’t seen Michelle Obama’s speech today you must watch it. Amazing.
Not kidding. Go watch the entire thing.
@Ben – LOL! I know.
@Cassandra – Bring it, indeed!
Love the NY Times response!!
Dave, yeah, that’s what I’m saying. We cant make them not exist. We can help them self identify so we know who to shut out of the process.
One of the things Clinton has said that I agree with the most is “you don’t change hearts, you change laws” (more or less). There will always be Trumps and Trump-men. They will never listen to why they are wrong and they will poison the minds of their sons. Those people are lost causes. Just marginalize them politically, prevent them from victimizing people as best you can, care for the victims they are able to get their piggy hands on, and ridicule them whenever possible.
Trump yelled at his lawyers to hit themselves in the face with a cream pie, and so they did.
He apparently went full Alex Jones at his Florida rally this afternoon — the Clintons sit at the heart of a massive global conspiracy to enrich themselves by shipping your jobs overseas, or something.
http://www.salon.com/2016/10/13/donald-trump-is-losing-it-in-speech-meant-to-defend-sex-assault-allegations-he-goes-full-breitbart/
Can I just say that the new Delaware Liberal masthead is fantastic?
I agree Cassandra.
Dave – Nate Silver says White Nationalists are probably the plurality in the GOP now.
Our illustrious founder, Jason330, requested a Hillary banner at the top of the page this morning. Hillary and Tim came in to our Delaware Liberal studios and sat for this picture. They were very nice to accommodate us. 😉
A big bold Clinton masthead as I recall. DD utterly crushed it.
Great work, guys!
I almost wonder if the GOP dumped the white nationalists and basically followed the autopsy of the 2012 election if they couldn’t split the electorate by yanking in the Carpers of the world.
Basically cut ties with both social and cultural “conservatism” and just go straight fiscal conservatism. They might rope in some Corporate type Dems, some Libertarians, and the parts of the GOP that were the Bush/Kasich/Rand Paul/etc types.
Wouldn’t be enough to do much nationally, but they might be able to get a few large chunks in Congress which would give them some power to try and expand. I’m highly skeptical though because it’s such an emotional mess on that side of the aisle right now. Too much blood in the water. Still if I am Paul Ryan and I’m just getting blasted daily from all sides for a job I never wanted that’d be my Frank Underwood card.
Ryan could be a hero, but he doesn’t have the spine to try to make it without the White Nationalist. It would be tough, and the GOP got here by consistently and cravenly taking the easiest, most shortsighted path.
It’s those damn Chem-Trails.. Chem-Trails is why Donald is losing… there’s poison in them i tell you.. Poison.
@p “If you haven’t seen Michelle Obama’s speech today you must watch it. Amazing.”
I’d like to see Michelle run for the Senate in 2020 replacing Dick Durbin (who will be 76, and ready to retire). Junior Senator from Illinois, would look nice on her resume.
And then in 2024…
“And then in 2024…”
We can’t count on the next Republican to be a sexual predator. Democrats will have to do better than this tepid economy to inspire lasting loyalty. If the next recession is deep enough, the party in the White House will be blamed and voters just might reach for those white male dinosaurs again.
@p ” If the next recession is deep enough…”
What next recession? Isn’t that one reason we’re all voting for Hillary?
First comes the dinosaur leader, and then a deep recession. The Bush recession wasn’t an accident.
Saw a little of the LBR / Reigle debate. Creating the next recession by cutting taxes and attacking “the debt” is a platform plank for Republicans.
I heard Reigle do that cutting waste and fraud thing a bunch in that debate. Which was pretty underwhelming, I must say.