There are 41 State House Districts. 23 of them, or 56% of them, will be uncontested by a major party. Which means either the incumbent Representative currently holding the seat is running for reelection either completely unopposed, or opposed by minor third parties. Of those 23 Representatives, 17 are Democrats and 6 are Republicans. So already, the race for the House is pretty much over. Because to gain a majority, the state GOP would need to win 21 seats. They have 6 in the bank. So they need to pick up another 15. There are only 18 contested races. So to win the house, the GOP would have to basically run the table and win everything. Good luck.
Here are the contested races. The ones highlighted in yellow are the ones that might be competitive.
And while I labeled those highlighted races competitive, they really aren’t. I do not expect Judy Travis to beat Democratic incumbent Sean Matthews in North Wilmington district in a presidential election year. The race is competitive because the area is a swing district area, and this is the rookie incumbent’s first reelection race, where incumbents face the most danger to their prospects.
I don’t expect Speaker Pete Schwartzkopf to lose in Rehoboth. Still, it is Sussex County, and he is the last Democrat standing down there. Sooner or later… but probably later.
The three Kent County Dover area districts are competitive because Kent County can alternative between being North Sussex or South New Castle. I expect Democratic incumbents Sean Lynn and Trey Paradee to win.
Now we come to the only two races where I don’t know what to expect, where I don’t know what will happen: the only open seat this year, the 33rd, where Democrat Karen Williams and Republican Charles Postles are vying to replace the late Republican Representative Jack Peterman, who died earlier this year after a long illness. Given the conservative lean of the district, you’d expect Postles to be a shoo-in, but he is not.
And then there is the vexing 41st district, the former seat of Republican Democrat John Atkins, which Republican Rich Collins currently holds. The Democrats have put up former Dagsboro Mayor Bradley Connor. Why is this seat competitive? Because Collins is not well liked, and is not good at constituent service.
In the end though, I expect nothing at all to change in the House. There were 25 Democrats and 16 Republicans in the House before the election and there will be the same number after.
The Senate is a different story. Since 2009, when the Democrats hit their high water mark with 15 Senators to 6 Republican Senators, the GOP has been solely chipping away at the lead in each election, gaining a seat every session. In 2011, they had 7, in 2013, they had 8 and in 2015 they had 9 Senators. Now they want the majority, and the Senate Republicans are going for it, fielding four competitive young candidates to go up against their older Democratic rivals.
Eleven out of the 21 Senate seats are up for election this year, and each will be elected for four year terms that will expire in 2020. 5 of the 11 seats are uncontested by a major party, including an open seat in the Newark suburbs, which is kinda shocking. Jack Walsh wins the primary in the 9th SD and he is the new Senator. Out of the six contested races, two are really not: In the 20th SD, Hocker will beat Mitchell without question, and in the 5th SD, Cathy Cloutier votes just liberal enough not to be thrown out of this North Wilmington district. She will defeat Denise Bowers. The 7th SD is not really competitive either, as Senate President Pro Tem will easily defeat her younger Republican opponent, Anthony Delcollo. Delcollo just fits the mold of a younger generation of Republicans that are running.
Now we come to the big three: Bruce Ennis v. Carl Pace in the 14th SD; Harris McDowell v. James Spadola in the 1st; and David Sokola and Meredith Chapman in the 8th. I have not been following Pace that well, so I don’t know what kind of campaign he is running yet, but this district, south of the canal, can trend to the conservative side. If Bruce Ennis is not tending to his base and his voters there, he could be surprised. I rate the 14th as Lean D right now.
In the 8th, Chapman is a great candidate who has told the truth to her party: that their presidential nominee is unfit for the Presidency. Now, the question is has she pissed off whatever amount of Trump base there is the 8th District enough for them to not vote for her, or conversely, has she won over GOP leaning moderate and independents and disaffected Democrat with her stance enough to defeat David Sokola? I rate this race a Lean D right now, but I would love to hear reports from the ground on this race.
Finally in the 1st, I really would like some input from the ground here. Jim Spadola is another good, young and attractive candidate for the GOP, but this district is perhaps too Democratic for it. The key to him winning is for him to be pounding the pavement everywhere, at every door and every event. It seems like he is doing that. If Harris is not doing it too, then Spadola could pull off an upset. If Harris is, then the demographic and registration edge in the 1st should be enough to hold off the young gun. This too is a Lean D district.
If I had to rank the top three districts in terms of likelihood to flip, with 1 being most likely and 3 less:
1. The 14th
2. The 8th
3. The 1st.
My guess is the GOP will get one of these seats, the 14th most likely, with the breakdown being 11-10 for the Dems in the Senate after the election.
You thought on the state of the races.