The Playing Field (Not a 62 District Project)
There are 41 State House Districts. 23 of them, or 56% of them, will be uncontested by a major party. Which means either the incumbent Representative currently holding the seat is running for reelection either completely unopposed, or opposed by minor third parties. Of those 23 Representatives, 17 are Democrats and 6 are Republicans. So already, the race for the House is pretty much over. Because to gain a majority, the state GOP would need to win 21 seats. They have 6 in the bank. So they need to pick up another 15. There are only 18 contested races. So to win the house, the GOP would have to basically run the table and win everything. Good luck.
Here are the contested races. The ones highlighted in yellow are the ones that might be competitive.
And while I labeled those highlighted races competitive, they really aren’t. I do not expect Judy Travis to beat Democratic incumbent Sean Matthews in North Wilmington district in a presidential election year. The race is competitive because the area is a swing district area, and this is the rookie incumbent’s first reelection race, where incumbents face the most danger to their prospects.
I don’t expect Speaker Pete Schwartzkopf to lose in Rehoboth. Still, it is Sussex County, and he is the last Democrat standing down there. Sooner or later… but probably later.
The three Kent County Dover area districts are competitive because Kent County can alternative between being North Sussex or South New Castle. I expect Democratic incumbents Sean Lynn and Trey Paradee to win.
Now we come to the only two races where I don’t know what to expect, where I don’t know what will happen: the only open seat this year, the 33rd, where Democrat Karen Williams and Republican Charles Postles are vying to replace the late Republican Representative Jack Peterman, who died earlier this year after a long illness. Given the conservative lean of the district, you’d expect Postles to be a shoo-in, but he is not.
And then there is the vexing 41st district, the former seat of Republican Democrat John Atkins, which Republican Rich Collins currently holds. The Democrats have put up former Dagsboro Mayor Bradley Connor. Why is this seat competitive? Because Collins is not well liked, and is not good at constituent service.
In the end though, I expect nothing at all to change in the House. There were 25 Democrats and 16 Republicans in the House before the election and there will be the same number after.
The Senate is a different story. Since 2009, when the Democrats hit their high water mark with 15 Senators to 6 Republican Senators, the GOP has been solely chipping away at the lead in each election, gaining a seat every session. In 2011, they had 7, in 2013, they had 8 and in 2015 they had 9 Senators. Now they want the majority, and the Senate Republicans are going for it, fielding four competitive young candidates to go up against their older Democratic rivals.
Eleven out of the 21 Senate seats are up for election this year, and each will be elected for four year terms that will expire in 2020. 5 of the 11 seats are uncontested by a major party, including an open seat in the Newark suburbs, which is kinda shocking. Jack Walsh wins the primary in the 9th SD and he is the new Senator. Out of the six contested races, two are really not: In the 20th SD, Hocker will beat Mitchell without question, and in the 5th SD, Cathy Cloutier votes just liberal enough not to be thrown out of this North Wilmington district. She will defeat Denise Bowers. The 7th SD is not really competitive either, as Senate President Pro Tem will easily defeat her younger Republican opponent, Anthony Delcollo. Delcollo just fits the mold of a younger generation of Republicans that are running.
Now we come to the big three: Bruce Ennis v. Carl Pace in the 14th SD; Harris McDowell v. James Spadola in the 1st; and David Sokola and Meredith Chapman in the 8th. I have not been following Pace that well, so I don’t know what kind of campaign he is running yet, but this district, south of the canal, can trend to the conservative side. If Bruce Ennis is not tending to his base and his voters there, he could be surprised. I rate the 14th as Lean D right now.
In the 8th, Chapman is a great candidate who has told the truth to her party: that their presidential nominee is unfit for the Presidency. Now, the question is has she pissed off whatever amount of Trump base there is the 8th District enough for them to not vote for her, or conversely, has she won over GOP leaning moderate and independents and disaffected Democrat with her stance enough to defeat David Sokola? I rate this race a Lean D right now, but I would love to hear reports from the ground on this race.
Finally in the 1st, I really would like some input from the ground here. Jim Spadola is another good, young and attractive candidate for the GOP, but this district is perhaps too Democratic for it. The key to him winning is for him to be pounding the pavement everywhere, at every door and every event. It seems like he is doing that. If Harris is not doing it too, then Spadola could pull off an upset. If Harris is, then the demographic and registration edge in the 1st should be enough to hold off the young gun. This too is a Lean D district.
If I had to rank the top three districts in terms of likelihood to flip, with 1 being most likely and 3 less:
1. The 14th
2. The 8th
3. The 1st.
My guess is the GOP will get one of these seats, the 14th most likely, with the breakdown being 11-10 for the Dems in the Senate after the election.
You thought on the state of the races.
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I think that you left out a few house races that will be competitive and added some that aren’t.
First of all in the 14th house Pete has 130k on hand. In a house race he has enough money to blanket the airwaves, the mail, and then do it all 4 more times, not competitive.
House seat 10 also has zero percent chance of flipping, not at all competitive, Matthews is loved by his constituents.
The 9th and 22nd I think are a lot closer this year than people are giving credit. Edwards and Johns are both very hard working candidates in districts with slight D majorities. Both will benefits from large parts of their districts have high profile state senate races that the will drive up turnout.
On the senate side things look good, but your statement about Chapman disavowing Trump makes me laugh since when you go through her campaign finance disclosures she is paying Hunter Dworsky about $400 a month to advise and help run her campaign. This is the same man who after a quick social media search claims to be Trumps Deputy State Director in Delaware.
Agreed with Reed about the 14th – I live in Rehoboth and have seen literally zero DeMartino signs or any other type of outreach. I predict Pete wins by nearly 60%.
D’s have been working hard in the 9th for Carney, LBR and Hall-Long, but Johns only wins if it is a huge D wave year and straight ticket voters vote in unprecedented numbers. [And who knows…Maybe they do because of Trump?] I don’t think Hensley is super strong, but he has established himself as a bit of a fixture.
Indeed, and that is how I feel about the race. If there is going to be a wave it will break late, but absent a wave, I don’t see Johns or Edwards winning. And talk about being a fixture, Joe Miro is the 22nd. I really do hope that Johns and Edwards win their districts. Nothing would make me happier. I just don’t see it right now absent a wave.
And if there is a wave, Cloutier is gone in the 5th.
There are three competive races in Sussex, and the 14th is not one of them.
The 41st, as stated above, is a likely Dem pickup. The incumbent is not only poor at constituent services, he also “forgot” to put some first responder funding in the budget and had lost key parts of the more rural parts of the district. Dem Brad Connor is also picking up a majority of independent voters. Democrat Brad Connor found grants and was able to provide water and sewer service to Dagsboro and neighboring Frankford and has a personality that is a good fit for the district.
The 37th is competitive as Paulette Rappa is a champion of the manufactured homeowners who make up a large part of the district- around Long Neck and Oak Orchard. Republican incumbent Ruth King has failed to deliver on promises made, including the fixes to the constant flooding around Oak Orchard.
The 20th is competitive, as it was in 2012, as incumbent R Steve Smyk takes positions that not only alientate progressives in Lewes and Milton, but also 5th amendment advocates in other areas. Independent Party chair Don Ayotte can be the spoiler in his third party bid-and give the win to civic activist and former Lewes councilwoman Barbara Vaughan.
I will believe it when I see it when it comes to the 37th and 20th, Mitch, but I hope you are right. And with the 41st, I agree and hope you’re right.
Del Dem is right. Sussex is one of the top 10 Trump counties in the country, and they will be out en masse to support their man. The 20th and the 37th will stay R, and the 14th will be competitive at best, but it may go R. If Pete does win, he will likely lose in 2018 when there is a Hillary backlash year and Dems don’t turn out. We will be facing a pure Red Sussex going forward — and that includes losing the one D county council seat as well.
I live in House 14th. It doesn’t look competitive from where I sit. You have Pete and you have someone else. Aside from those who will pull the (R) lever, I don’t know of anyone who is voting for the someone else (I know he has a name, I just don’t know it off the top of my head).
The Deaver’s seat on the Sussex council is a tossup. I.G. Burton presided over the P&Z Commission which approved the rampant development with no consideration of infrastructure. Now he is pretending to be a good steward for controlled growth. So who knows.
Emma, What is your source for this?
“Sussex is one of the top 10 Trump counties in the country,”
Do you have a link? I’d love to see it because it goes a long way to explaining why Copeland has been such a spineless weasel.
I would not be surprised if Jim Spadola beat McDowell. Spadola has been everywhere this summer and into the fall.
McDowell does not seem to have much of a presence. I saw him once this summer coming out of an event at the Logan house. His opponent got 30% of the vote in the primary with three facebook posts and one lawn sign. I have a friend who said she called McDowell’s office three times and never heard back from him. He has been in his seat for over 40 years but I am not sure what his accomplishments have been during this time?
Spadola is relatively liberal. Has stepped away from Trump. He might win. I might vote for him and I cannot remember the last R for whom I voted.
Incumbency is such a huge built-in advantage. That plus a Dem presidential year (one hopes), Spadola is a real long shot. 20:1
@Jason330 – I will try to find the link. I know Trump won 71% of GOP vote in primary in Sussex.
Maybe but there are plenty of lawns with a Spadola sign nestled among the Democrats. I wish he had run in the D primary.
McDowell has been out doing some canvassing. Not sure how much, but he is not nearly as peripetetic as Spadola. I see few Spadola signs, but I have heard plenty of D’s openly considering voting for Spadola as McDowell seems to be close to his Sell By date.
McDowell has used his time in government to create a nice 6 figure sinecure for himself, so maybe he lost the eye of the tiger?
@Emma, so Sussex is one of the 10 most Republican counties in the USA because Trump got 71% in the Primary!!!. Hillary got 61%-does that make Sussex one of the most Democratic too? So is Sussex more R than the hundreds of counties in rural Texas, and Idaho, Kansas, Oklahoma, Montana, Wyoming???? Sussex is one of the 10 most R counties in……Delaware.
The published poll showed Trump leading in Sussex, but with only 49%. I am certainly not saying he won’t carry Sussex, but I am saying he will have no coat tails to help other republicans with. The top vote getter in Sussex will be Joh Carney-and he will help down ballot Democrats. The Democratic campaign is busy in both Sussex offices. How many calls have gone out to Republicans in Sussex? Where is the R ground game? I can name prominent Republicans who will not vote for Trump-some will vote for Hillary. Trump is no Christine O’Donnell ( I never thought i would say anything remotely favorable about her). Her Sussex supporters were energized by her campaign and thought she would win. They came out for her. Trump has loyal supporters, but they are fewer than COD had-and there is no Sussex effort for Trump as there was with O’Donnell.
Emma-you have no more evidence to back up your statement than Trump has to back up his claims. You and he are just bitter because you lose.
not exactly sure where you got the idea that the 29th would be competitive
A vote for Spadola is a vote for Lavalle. The buyers remorse will be legion!:)
The 34th can flip if actual democrats went out to vote. There are more democrats in this district than republicans.
The 9th and 22nd I think are a lot closer this year than people are giving credit. Edwards and Johns are both very hard working candidates in districts with slight D majorities. Both will benefits from large parts of their districts have high profile state senate races that the will drive up turnout.
In the 22nd not a chance. The evidence: (1) no signs for the challenger (I’ve seen two in the past three weeks); (2) no door-knocking campaign worthy of the name; (3) no presence in community organizations, which are both the incubators of voting in this district and the general source of the incumbent’s support.
Most people in this district aren’t even aware there is a challenger. Not sure how that got to be the description of “hard working” instead of depending on the presidential election to sweep you into office.
LCP: There may be more D’s than R’s, but, there are a lot of I’s, over 4400 of them, and that area skews R for those unaffiliated voters. Plus a lot of D’s do not vote D. 34th ain’t flipping.
absolutely no way the 14th is the most likely to flip…you need better political intel
I’ve heard from a few people about the 9th and Johns looks like the weaker candidate survived. While the committee had endorsed her opponent, the Committee Chair kept asking the committee to help Johns with signs and the like. According to sources, Johns was knocking on doors in the primary telling people she was endorsed by BHL, and a whisper campaign started against her opponent saying that he was not supporting BHL. So there is some thought there that the committee stopped helping him because they believed the whisper campaign. There’s also questions about Johns’ fundraising — I was told that there was plenty of it down via her husband’s church — 50/50 raffles, Fish Fry, Bowling event that didn’t show up in the reports. The whole thing sounds like a mess. Even if there is a wave, it sounds like there might be enough Ds to vote for the R here just to wash their hands of the drama.
No way Bruce Ennis will lose the 14th. He apparently has had great polling results…
As far as the 9th, Hensley was relieved when his opponent from last election decided not to run but the newcomer Johns is out all over the place and really getting some support. This one is going to be tight. Turnout either way will decide it. Hensley Isnt feeling as comfortable as he was when he thought it would be Griffiths he would run against.
@cassandra….Johns got over 60% in the primary b/c Griffiths literally didn’t campaign. Logical question… How could she be weaker than a guy who just put up signs?
If campaign finance filing is an indicator Johns has competency issues. Hensley is a Realtor with a successful local practice which helps him, e is personable and he has a good disability community record. Probably tying him to Trump is best path to knock him off
As to the 14th Pace is a disingenuous bordering on dangerous dude. An open Trump supporter he snookered a Black thought/community leader from Wilmo into using a feel good event to appear like a good guy. He is anything but. Ennis better work his ass off.
Johns got over 60% in the primary b/c Griffiths literally didn’t campaign.
Or because the whisper campaign against Griffiths was effective.
My comment on Griffiths prior to the primary was that he was either keeping his powder dry or phoning it in.
He phoned it in.
Ciro the zero did in fact attend Griffiths event at the hunting lodge saw him there, just sayn’
Jason330 called it early on…He made literally no effort in the race. Apparently he’s telling people he wants to run for sheriff next. Countywide will require actual effort on his part