Delaware Liberal

The October 17, 2016 Thread

Delaware Dem

PRESIDENT
NATIONAL–NBC News/Wall Street Journal–CLINTON 51, Trump 41

Key finding: “While Mr. Trump’s core supporters haven’t abandoned him and not defected to the Democratic side, Mrs. Clinton’s gains stem from a widening advantage among women and the support of voters who had been undecided or planning to vote for third-party candidates.”

NATIONAL–Washington Post/ABC News–CLINTON 50, Trump 46

Key findings: “Nearly 7 in 10 respondents believe Trump probably made unwanted sexual advances, and a majority say his apology for boasts about forcing himself on women on a hot-mic videotape was insincere. Nonetheless, the controversy appeared to have had only a minimal impact on his overall support.”

FLORIDA–Gravis–CLINTON 46, Trump 42
NEVADA–CBS News/YouGov–CLINTON 46, Trump 40
COLORADO–Gravis–CLINTON 44, Trump 39
VIRGINIA–Christopher Newport Univ.–CLINTON 44, Trump 29
UTAH–CBS News/YouGov–TRUMP 37, Clinton 20, McMullin 20

“Donald Trump isn’t really running a campaign for president anymore. Instead, he’s involved in an extended revenge plot or is simply following the politics of grievance to its natural, unseemly end,” Chris Cillizza writes.

“It appears as though Trump’s minders have effectively given up, allowing the candidate to pursue his own score-settling and airing of grievances in these final weeks of the campaign. Taking that road may bring some satisfaction to Trump. But it has the potential to do catastrophic damage to the party he ostensibly leads as the GOP tries to hold its Senate and House majorities amid declining enthusiasm within its own ranks for its presidential nominee.”

“To care about that effect would mean that Trump was running a real campaign that grasped the idea that it’s about more than just the whims of a single candidate. He simply isn’t doing that.”

New York Times: “Mrs. Clinton’s campaign declined to release transcripts of her speeches to Wall Street firms during the Democratic primary contests, when her rival, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, intensely criticized her for accepting roughly $225,000 per speech.”

“But on Saturday, transcripts of three appearances at Goldman Sachs events were released by WikiLeaks, part of a trove of thousands of emails obtained by hackers who illegally breached the email account of one of Mrs. Clinton’s top aides.”

“The genial relationship she appeared to have with Mr. Blankfein and other Wall Street executives at the events would not have served Mrs. Clinton well in the Democratic primary contests… But for Mrs. Clinton, who is often criticized as overly scripted, her relaxed, off-the-cuff exchanges at these private events also revealed a side that she has struggled to show voters under the intense glare of a presidential race.”

The Hill reports Trump called the skit a “hit job,” adding that the show is “boring and unfunny.”

“Donald Trump entered the homestretch of the campaign at a pronounced financial disadvantage to Hillary Clinton, according to figures Mr. Trump’s team released on Saturday, and far below the self-funding goal he set for himself earlier in the race,” the New York Times reports.

“After raising $100 million in partnership with Republican Party organizations in September, Mr. Trump and committees linked to his campaign began October with $75 million in cash on hand. Mrs. Clinton raised $154 million in September and began October with roughly $150 million in the bank, her campaign said, twice as much as Mr. Trump.”

“Donald Trump keeps peddling the notion the vote may be rigged. It’s not clear if he does not understand the potential damage of his words — or he simply does not care,” the AP reports.

“Trump’s claim — made without evidence — undercuts the essence of American democracy, the idea that U.S. elections are both free and fair, with the vanquished peacefully stepping aside for the victor. His repeated assertions are sowing suspicion among his most ardent supporters, raising the possibility that millions of people may not accept the results on Nov. 8 if Trump does not win.”

Politico: “Donald Trump is laying the groundwork to lose on Nov. 8, refuse to concede the election, and teeter the country into an unprecedented crisis of faith in government. Republicans and Democrats, in Washington and beyond, fear that the aftermath of the 2016 election will create a festering infection in the already deep and lasting wound that the campaign is leaving on America.”

“Donald Trump’s rallies have never been the friendliest places for reporters. But lately, as Trump has come under increasing fire, an unwelcoming atmosphere for the press has turned into outright hostility,” the Washington Post reports.

“Reporters who cover Trump on the campaign trail say his supporters have become more surly and abusive in the past week, egged on by a candidate who has made demonizing journalists part of his stump speech.”

Boston Globe: “At a time when trust in government is at a low point, Trump is actively stoking fears that a core tenet of American democracy is also in peril: that you can trust what happens at the ballot box.”

“His supporters here said they plan to go to their local precincts to look for illegal immigrants who may attempt to vote. They are worried that Democrats will load up buses of minorities and take them to vote several times in different areas of the city. They’ve heard rumors that boxes of Clinton votes are already waiting somewhere.”

“And if Trump doesn’t win, some are even openly talking about violent rebellion and assassination, as fantastical and unhinged as that may seem.”

Michael Cohenbegs for an end to the madness.

This take is five days late, but after watching Hillary Clinton at the second presidential debate last Sunday — I am in awe of her. …

Trump called Clinton a liar. He said she had hate in her heart. He told her that if he were president he’d throw her in jail. He talked about the philandering of her husband Bill Clinton and even brought to the debate hall women who’ve accused him of sexual assault. He lied incessantly, about both his own plans and those of Clinton. He sought to intimidate her by looming over her and standing directly behind her as she answered questions. …

And yet, somehow, Hillary Clinton maintained her composure. She didn’t get angry; she didn’t get petulant; she didn’t give Trump a richly deserved slap in the face.

It’s all the more reason to scrap next week’s third and final presidential debate. No person should have to be subjected to what Clinton dealt with on Sunday and, more important, no great democratic nation should be subjected to it either.

The Fix: “Forget Virginia. Or Colorado. Or lots of other traditional swing states. Right now, Donald Trump’s campaign is in such bad free fall, states that haven’t voted for a Democrat in generations are suddenly coming into play as the Republican nominee’s path to 270 electoral votes collapses all around him.”

“Over the past 72 hours, polls have come out in Alaska, Texas and Utah that show Trump narrowly ahead of Hillary Clinton. That comes on top of data that suggests Republican-friendly states likes Arizona and Georgia are already a jump ball between Clinton and Trump.”

“That’s absolutely remarkable when you consider the historic trends in those states. The last time a Democrat won Alaska was 1964, when Lyndon Johnson carried it over Barry Goldwater. Texas hasn’t voted for a Democrat for president since Jimmy Carter eked out the state in 1976. In Utah, like Alaska, LBJ is the last Democrat to win.”

The Upshot puts Clinton’s odds of winning at 89%, FiveThirtyEight has her at 84% and Sam Wang has her at 97%.

Frank Bruni’s ode to Michelle Obama.

… isn’t it interesting that after so many years of keeping a studied distance from the ugliness of the political arena, the first lady is throwing herself with such passion into this grotesque campaign?

That says everything about the singular threat that Trump poses, and she’s emerging as the fiercest counter to it: Michelle Obama, octopus slayer. She’s effective because she has never gone looking for a fight — we know that about her. She acts when she has something to defend, and as she made clear in a stirring, searing speech late last week, that’s more than her husband’s legacy, which a Trump victory would decimate. It’s her dignity as a woman. It’s the dignity of all women.

I don’t mean to overstate her impact: Trump was going down before she joined the chorus of condemnation. But her eloquence is sealing the deal. First at the Democratic convention in late July and then in New Hampshire on Thursday, she embodied the nation’s conscience and staked her claim as the most earnest guardian of our most important values.

Ramesh Ponnuru: “Their majority is protected by gerrymandering, the geographic distribution of Republican voters, the power of incumbency and its own sheer size. Republicans have 247 seats in the House, the most since 1931. Democrats would have to win 30 to take back the chamber. And that includes many seats in districts that usually go Republican in presidential contests. That sets the House apart from the Senate, where to keep their majority Republicans will have to hold seats in states that usually vote for Democratic presidential candidates.”

“But Clinton’s lead in the polls is widening to the point that Republicans need to set aside their complacency. Split-ticket voting has declined over the last generation. If Clinton wins big — because Republican voters stay home, or swing voters choose her party, or both — House Republicans will struggle to win re-election. Henry Olsen, the co-author of a recent book about the Republican party, tells me that an eight-point win would put Republicans in the danger zone.”

Rick Hasen: “So if the Russians are not actually changing our election results, what might they be doing? The hacks and probing of election systems generate headlines which can undermine the public’s trust in the electoral process. As CNN noted, the hacks have already caused people to be suspicious about the election. And this feeds exactly into Donald Trump’s irresponsible statements that the vote will be rigged or stolen. In a close race, it is possible that Trump won’t concede and will instead create turmoil and threaten what we take for granted: the peaceful transition of political power between presidencies.”

“In short, the Russian hacking of our elections should be seen for what it is: an attempt to manipulate and destabilize the U.S., with an unwitting assist from an irresponsible presidential candidate spewing unsupported claims about rigged elections.”

David Wasserman: “Paul Ryan’s decision to throw Trump under the bus to save his majority, and Trump’s decision to lash out at Ryan as ‘weak and ineffective,’ could have even greater ramifications in January than November. That’s because if Democrats cut Ryan’s majority in half, the GOP’s losses are much likelier to come from the ranks of Ryan loyalists than Trump loyalists or the Freedom Caucus.”

“Such an outcome could make Ryan’s job miserable in 2017. If Clinton wins, would Ryan even want to run for speaker when the job would probably entail breaking the ‘Hastert Rule’ just to keep the government open or avoid debt default – incurring the wrath of his own party? And if Trump blames Ryan’s stiff-arm for his loss, could Ryan even muster enough Republicans to win the race for speaker without resorting to pursuing Democratic votes?”

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