The October 19, 2016 Thread
PRESIDENT
NATIONAL–FOX News–CLINTON 49, Trump 42
NATIONAL–NBC News/SurveyMonkey–CLINTON 46, Trump 40
NATIONAL–Bloomberg–CLINTON 47, Trump 38
WISCONSIN–WPR/St. Norbert–CLINTON 47, Trump 39
WISCONSIN–Washington Post/SurveyMonkey–CLINTON 48, Trump 44
OREGON–FOX News–CLINTON 43, Trump 36
COLORADO–Magellan Strategies–CLINTON 40, Trump 35
COLORADO–Washington Post/SurveyMonkey–CLINTON 50, Trump 41
FLORIDA–Washington Post/SurveyMonkey–CLINTON 47, TRUMP 47
GEORGIA–Washington Post/SurveyMonkey–CLINTON 48, Trump 45
IOWA–Washington Post/SurveyMonkey–TRUMP 49, Clinton 44
MICHIGAN–Washington Post/SurveyMonkey–CLINTON 51, Trump 42
NEVADA–Monmouth–CLINTON 47, Trump 40
NEVADA–Washington Post/SurveyMonkey–CLINTON 47, Trump 46
TEXAS–Univ. of Houston–TRUMP 41, Clinton 38
TEXAS–Washington Post/SurveyMonkey-TRUMP 48, Clinton 46
NEW JERSEY–Farleigh Dickinson–CLINTON 51, Trump 40
NEW HAMPSHIRE–Washington Post/SurveyMonkey–CLINTON 50, Trump 43
NEW MEXICO–Washington Post/SurveyMonkey–CLINTON 50, Trump 39
NORTH CAROLINA–Washington Post/SurveyMonkey–CLINTON 51, Trump 43
NORTH CAROLINA–SurveyUSA–CLINTON 46, Trump 44
OHIO–Washington Post/SurveyMonkey–TRUMP 48, Clinton 46
PENNSYLVANIA–Washington Post/SurveyMonkey–CLINTON 51, Trump 42
MASSACHUSETTS–WBUR/MassINC–CLINTON 54, Trump 28
ARIZONA–Washington Post/SurveyMonkey–TRUMP 47, Clinton 46
VIRGINIA–Washington Post/SurveyMonkey–CLINTON 54, Trump 41
A new USA TODAY/Rock the Vote Poll of young voters, conducted by Ipsos, finds Hillary Clinton is continuing to build a lead over Donald Trump among Millennials, 68% to 20%, followed by Gary Johnson at 8%.
The New York Times on whether Trump will torch his own party: “Snubbed by Mr. Ryan in the final month of the campaign, Mr. Trump has seemed as eager to attack turncoat leaders in his own party as to make the case against Mrs. Clinton. He has reserved special venom for Mr. Ryan, blasting him as a weak leader with bad ideas about trade and immigration, and suggesting that Mr. Ryan might be sabotaging Mr. Trump’s campaign to pave the way for a presidential run of his own in four years.”
“These attacks have the potential to rip apart the Republican Party in ways that will last long beyond Election Day. Should Mr. Trump use a prime-time debate to sic the Republican base on its leaders — and to cast himself, essentially, as an independent candidate challenging elites on the left and right — he could inflict damage on the party far deeper than what Mrs. Clinton might deliver on her own.”
The internals in the new Fox News poll are devastating for Donald Trump. pic.twitter.com/taoc9uLFBg
— Geoff Garin (@geoffgarin) October 19, 2016
Politico on how low will Trump go tonight: “Last time Trump suggested Clinton was the devil, said she had ‘hate in her heart’ and paraded Bill Clinton’s accusers in front of the debate stage. And that was ten days ago, when he was doing better in the polls.”
The only thing that is left is the Clinton Murders. He will accuse her of murder.
I'm beginning to think Donald Trump was not the brilliant tactician we thought he was pic.twitter.com/7LqBWWm8ex
— Dave Itzkoff (@ditzkoff) October 18, 2016
This is supposed to rattle Hillary Clinton? All it proves is that Obama got under Trump’s skin by doing this:
Pres. Obama on Donald Trump: "You start whining before the game is even over…then you don't have what it takes." https://t.co/FQ3ei8aBrh
— ABC News (@ABC) October 18, 2016
Rick Klein: “The damage Donald Trump is doing to the Republican Party – assuming polls hold and he loses big, perhaps taking the Senate down with him – can’t be fully measured Nov. 8. (And that has nothing to do with claims of a ‘rigged election.’) Just three weeks out, Trump is somehow finding new battles to fight with his fellow Republicans, including those whose endorsements of him still stand.”
“Trump on Monday put House Speaker Paul Ryan in his crosshairs, telling ABC’s Tom Llamas that Ryan may not want him to even win: ‘Maybe he wants to run in four years, or maybe he doesn’t know how to win.’ That sentiment virtually assures a post-election for Ryan, who at best will have a diminished majority to try to lead in the next Congress, amid suspicions of his own motives and true agenda. Should Trump lose, the potential justifications for his backers to offer are multiplying daily.”
“Sen. Marco Rubio used his first Senate debate to describe the choice between Trump and Hillary Clinton as ‘horrifying’ and called on Trump to stop saying the election is rigged. That plea will go unheard, as will pleas that Trump limit his shots at fellow GOPers over the final stretch.”
This is basically the happiest story of the month https://t.co/5O0FfdN9EZ
— Nate Cohn (@Nate_Cohn) October 18, 2016
Former Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling told WPRO that that he’s planning to run against Sen. Elizabeth Warren in 2018.
Said Schilling: “I’ve made my decision. I’m going to run. But I haven’t talked to Shonda, my wife. And ultimately it’s going to come down to how her and I feel this would affect our marriage and our kids.”
You have made your decision but you have not talked to your wife. Good marriage you have there, Curt.
Ryan talks about living with a disability—and befriending Hillary back in 1994: "She looks at me the way I always wanted to be looked at." pic.twitter.com/vJ3E2Jzfaj
— Hillary Clinton (@HillaryClinton) October 18, 2016
National Journal: “Of the seven most competitive Senate races, Republicans are clinging to leads in six (Pennsylvania, Missouri, New Hampshire, Florida, Indiana and North Carolina), and barely trailing in a seventh (Nevada).”
“The internal data, shared with National Journal by a senior Republican operative, show six Republican candidates holding narrow 1-3 point leads against their Democratic challengers, with a seventh candidate trailing by two points. Different races are trending in different directions: Republican candidates have momentum but statistically insignificant leads in Indiana and North Carolina, while GOP candidates in Missouri and Nevada have lost ground in the last few weeks but still remain in contention.”
That is bad news for the GOP. Races break one way or the other. Remember 2006 and 2008. 2010 and 2014. We and the GOP won races we never expected in those wave years.
Stuart Rothenberg: “It would be a mistake to call Trump’s current path to an electoral college victory narrow. It is nonexistent. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, once part of the Trump scenario, have never been ‘in play,’ and he is not competitive in 2012 states Obama won only narrowly, such as Virginia and Colorado. Trump is more likely to lose North Carolina than win it, which would put him under 200 electoral votes.”
“Frankly, the writing has been on the wall for months about this race. You simply needed to look at the candidates, their campaign teams, the map and the voters.”
It appears that Donald Trump’s big strategy for the final weeks of the presidential race is attacking Hillary Clinton for her husband’s past actions. If Trump’s intention is to convince voters to support him because of the Clintons’ past, it’s not working:
The Post-ABC poll asked whether people thought “Bill Clinton’s treatment of women” is a legitimate issue. Just 31 percent of likely voters said it is, while two-thirds (67 percent) said it isn’t. Even Republicans said by a 50-46 margin that it isn’t a legitimate issue. […]
The Post-ABC poll shows just 35 percent of likely voters say Hillary Clinton “unfairly criticizing women who accused her husband of sexual assault” is a legitimate issue. Fully 62 percent disagree. And again, even Republicans are split — 49-49. […]
Digging deeper, while 36 percent say Trump’s treatment of women is “extremely” or “very” important, just 13 percent say the same of Bill Clinton, and 14 percent say Hillary Clinton’s criticisms of Bill’s accusers are that important. And among political independents, just 1 in 8 say the latter two issues are “extremely” or “very” important to the campaign.
Tim Miller: “Trump knows he’s on a death march, which is why he has reverted to his purest id over the past few days. Belittling women that he allegedly sexually assaulted, concocting racist conspiracy theories about the global elites and minority communities rigging the election, and proffering bombastic lies about his opponent that he knows cable news can’t help but cover.”
“The death march is why Conway has begun to resurrect a time-honored practice: duplicitous political operatives throwing their boss under the bus to try to save face. In an attempt to preserve a lucrative fee on the public speaking circuit after the campaign, Conway has sent a series of tweets over the past week trying to position herself as both in on the joke with Saturday Night Live and the conscience on Trump’s shoulder trying to get him to behave. As a fellow anti-Trump conservative pointed out, Conway is officially playing the role of ‘punch clock villain.’”
“To a casual observer, this behavior might seem counterproductive to the goal Trump and Conway share: winning the election. But the reality is the only goal either has in mind now is self-preservation.”
Yep. In '12, final polling avg had Obama +1.5 over Romney & Obama won by 3.9 pts. Clinton avg is currently +7.6. She's headed for a blowout. https://t.co/H9l8NssjHo
— Ryan Lizza (@RyanLizza) October 16, 2016
If only #millennials could vote. https://t.co/QjXDfkQ89m @FiveThirtyEight @realDonaldTrump @HFA via @USATODAY pic.twitter.com/jhUfb5Dhtv
— Greg Toppo (@gtoppo) October 18, 2016
The “punch clock Villian” take on Conway is interesting, and very believable given the incestuousness of cable news reporting/commentary/punditry. However, if Conway is given this out, can’t ALL Republicans (aside from the pure lunatics) claim to be playing the same part?
“Most Punch Clock Villains are not even particularly mean. Even if they are, they see their job as a chore, are there for the reward and they more than likely couldn’t care less for the plan itself.
Used to be an odd device but has become increasingly frequent due to the popularity of superhero parody, where minions are portrayed as sympathetic employees for unreasonable bosses. In addition, nearly all anime featuring a comedic villain usually has these, who are frequently cute characters.
Conversely, if played seriously, the emotional detachment that the Punch Clock Villain displays when he or she knowingly contributes to various atrocities can be chilling, and audiences may see them as a monster. Depending on the nature of the story this trope can make a villain either more relatable to an audience or more hateful. If they’re employed in a violent capacity, they may be an Apologetic Attacker or insist that it’s Nothing Personal.
Many Punch Clock Villains may execute a Heel–Face Turn at the very, VERY end of the film, should the Big Bad totally lose it.”
Great point Jason. At 12:01 am on November 9, all Republicans everywhere will pretend that Trump never existed. Clinton was unopposed in her election and never fully vetted, and thus impeachment proceedings must begin immediately.
Certainly, Charlie Copeland is rehearsing his Heel–Face Turn right now. The GOP should come out of this election with zero credibility but I’m sure the “media” will let them off the hook.
If there is a media conspiracy, that is it. Never holding Republicans accountable for their myriad of malicious fuckups.
“At 12:01 am on November 9, all Republicans everywhere will pretend that Trump never existed. ”
Are you kidding? Trump is the perfect scapegoat for the GOP to explain its failures. No doubt the GOP will portray themselves as somehow victims of Trump, who distorted their true conservative message. Paul Ryan is already working on that.
The message will be “No, we’re not like that at all, that was just Trump, he’s an evil outlier but he’s gone now.” Trump’s loss will keep alive the “not a true conservative” excuse.
I bet they start pushing the line that the Clintons helped convince Trump to run and urged the media to give him so much air time. It was all a Hillary scheme!
11/9/16: “He’s an evil outlier that our entire party systematically nominated for president, but that’s not important now.”
DD wrote, “At 12:01 am on November 9, all Republicans everywhere will pretend that Trump never existed.”
I am amazed at Delaware Dem’s conservative call here. Knowing, DD as I do, I was expecting more along this lines, “At 8:01 pm on November 8, ….”
Is our hyperbolic little boy growing up?
To be clear, that is not the time (12:01) that I predict the election to be called. It will be called between 9 and 11 pm.
I’ll be in Texas the week of the election. Shall I report if I notice a blue tinge starting to wash over the state?
We should start a Go Fund Me to buy Brian a Kevlar vest. Good luck, dude.
Thanks, Jason, for sending me down the TVTropes rabbit hole looking up “punch clock villain.” Hadn’t heard that one before.
Can we start one for Mr. Pandora, too? He’ll be in Mississippi that week. Ugh.
Let’s get Mr. Pandora some armor first. At least in Texas, I know of some Liberal/Democrat Sanctuary areas that I can flee to if needed. In Mississippi…I got nothing.
I need to remember to bring my passport though, in case Texas decides to secede.
Ah, Missippi — they leave out that middle syllable — ain’t so bad. Pervided yer white, that is. You are white, aintcha? Alright then.
@Jason: If Trump is the Joker, does that make Conway Harley Quinn? Does it mean Mark Hamill will provide his voice in “Trump: The Animated Series”?
I’ll probably see that movie on cable months from now, so I’ll let you know.
Now I have Q for you, though. What point is Trump trying to make by bringing Obama’s half-brother to the debate? I don’t get it.
Obama called him whiny and Trump can’t let anything go.
And I have asked Mr. Pandora to keep his head down in Mississippi and NOT discuss politics. I doubt anyone will say anything to him since, where he’s going, he’s the guy in charge. Still, I’m a bit worried. It’s crazy out there.
@pandora: When I was in the Delta in February, you knew who the Trump supporters were because they emblazoned their small businesses with enormous signs bearing his name. And if he’s talking to real Missippians, he won’t be able to understand what they say anyway.
@Jason: Why did Michael Corleone bring Frankie Pentangeli’s brother to his Congressional hearing? Trump saw that trick work in the movie, but obviously didn’t understand why, so he’s doing the same thing. Take that, Obama.
Remember, the whole idea of his candidacy is to shout at a crowd the same things his fans usually shout at their TV sets.
Offered without comment.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/this-terrifying-trump-groper-costume-benefits-syrian-refugees_us_5807778ae4b0dd54ce367320?section=&
Y’know how the mass of Democrats frustrate us because they don’t vote in midterm elections? Well, it turns out that those non-voters Trump is courting are just like those Democrats, only even lazier:
“Despite his self-styled reputation as a “blue-collar billionaire,” Trump’s primary voters were actually wealthier than most Americans, on average, and wealthier than people who voted for either Clinton or Bernie Sanders. That fact is particularly relevant in light of a fascinating but little-noticed poll conducted in 2012 by Suffolk University of what the survey called “unlikely voters,” people who were either not registered or said they weren’t likely to vote that year.”
http://www.salon.com/2016/10/19/will-millions-of-missing-voters-propel-donald-trump-to-victory-probably-not/
According to the study, just 14 percent of unregistered people said they favored that year’s GOP nominee, Romney; 43 percent of them favored re-electing Obama, and 55 percent said they approved of his performance in office.”
I see the half-brother move as a not-so-subtle statement to his supporters who are also birther crazies. LOOK: OBAMA’S KENYAN HALF-BROTHER!!!! HE’S KENYAN! OBAMA’S KENYAN!!!
Q. How many birthers does it take to locate Kenya on a map?
A. If they’re like a previous GOP vice-presidential candidate, they think Africa is a country.
Count, chickens, hatch
I wonder if I should be worried, then I think that Team Clinton has probably held back some hard hitting material intending to use it tonight. I’m hoping that she will calmly and deliberately take a hammer to the idea that he is a competent businessman. (Everyone is done with the groping, give the press something new.)
Attacking his business skills as exceedingly weak is 1) true and verifiable, and 2) something that will drive him completely fucking nuts.
“Count, chickens, hatch”
They’ve hatched in Ireland:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/irish-bookie-already-paying-out-on-hillary-clinton-victory-bets-2016-10-18